The most anticipated Pokémon TCG set of all time, 30th Celebration, has defied all expectations. But not in the way anyone was expecting. The new set, released last week, has pull-rates so generous that the resale market is absolutely flooded with what were expected to be the most expensive chase cards, and as a result the prices continue to plummet. Even the Future Mew and Future Mewtwo, predicted to fetch $3,000 each, are struggling to pull in $100, and the results are exactly what you would hope: happy children, and scalpers absolutely crashing out.
30th Celebration, the latest set of Pokémon TCG created to commemorate the 30th anniversary of pocket monsters, is obviously proving extremely popular. And what’s been discovered since last Wednesday’s launch is just how easy it is to pull its best cards, which has had the effect of absolutely slashing prices on cards being resold. This has led to some incredible hysterics from the weirdest community: Pokémon card scalpers and investors, who had worked themselves up to believe this was going to be the most profitable moment of their lives.
There is still difficulty in getting 30th Collection cards in the first place, because of the inevitable scenes of scalpers and “investors” camping stores and buying everything before most people were aware it was released. And frankly, kids shouldn’t be anywhere near these lines anyway:
But we can expect this to calm down pretty quickly.
While most reputable sites won’t allow sales of unreleased cards, those that also track prices will absolutely list what they’re going for on eBay and the like. It’s this way we’re able to see the difference between what speculating types were willing to pay for ill-gained cards ahead of launch, and the hilariously lower prices on which the market has quickly settled. And there is no better example than the outrageously garish Mew from the new Future Rare class. The highest listed price for the card, ahead of launch in early September, was over $3,000. Throughout the end of August and the first half of September, the (illegitimately obtained) card routinely sold for between $850 and $1,400 on eBay. Right now, five days after release, it’s routinely listed for around $120, but struggles to sell for more than $100.
And it’s not like it’s been replaced by something else that’s spiking attention. The most expensive card in the set is currently the Special Illustration Rare Mew ex, a gorgeous card by artist Kuroimori, with a market price of $177. And yes, that’s a lot of money for printed cardboard, but it’s a fraction of what was expected, and indeed of the prices the chase cards in most sets over the last two years have achieved. The second-highest, the splendid Gengar ex SIR, is just $130. And what’s most striking is these prices drop to under $40 by the time you get to tenth place. We haven’t see numbers like that for an SIR since early 2024, before the current scalper-driven bubble began.
This is largely down to their pull-rates. For inexplicable reasons, with sets preceding 30th Celebration, The Pokémon Company International decided it would make the most desirable full-art cards appear in only one in every 100 packs, making these beautifully illustrated variants inaccessible to almost everyone, least of all children passionate about the hobby. This, aided by gouging from companies like Target and GameStop, set pack prices soaring, such that buying 100 packs from most of the sets from the last couple of years would cost you around $1,000. But in 30th Celebration, that one-in-100 rate has leapt to one in 18. That’s further improved by Illustration Rares showing up in every five packs.
This is all wonderful news. It’s still miserably difficult to get product, thanks to the same scalpers who buy up everything in order to resell it, or dumbass “investors” who buy the packs to sit on them for 10 years in the belief that they’ll somehow become as valuable as the sets from 10 years ago when no one was sitting on them. But 30th Celebration has the largest print of any Pokémon set to date, and will continue to be printed for many months to come, meaning there’s a far better chance of finding it in stores. It means kids will be able to get packs, and pull pretty cards to put in their binders, and hopefully go some way to deflating the bubble consuming the entire hobby.
And the best part of all of that is how it’s hurting the assholes. Scalpers and “collectors” are crashing out all over the internet, having spent months—even years—telling each other how 30th Celebration was going to be the greatest investment opportunity of all time, memestonking their way into fevered excitement as they bought up as much as they possibly could, only to discover the pull-rates and the resulting prices. Many are not reacting well.
“I’m seriously considering taking legal action against Pokémon,” wrote Reggie B. on Discord (then copied onto Reddit). “It’s disgusting that they didn’t share exact print numbers, pull rates, and how big the supply truly is.” But why should TPCi have done any such thing? Well, it’s because this delusional community has convinced itself that they’ve been working under some unspoken agreement with Pokémon to “help” boost the value of the products, with some even sharing incredible conspiracy theories that TPCi has been relying on them for financial success. (Pokémon is the largest entertainment IP in the world, $60bn ahead of second-place Hello Kitty, and more than double the income of Star Wars, and even with that makes 80 percent of its money outside of the TCG.) The Reddit post continues, “They overhyped the set, making us secondary distributors the victims of their marketing. Honestly, this could be a RICO violation if we find they purposefully did this to take money out of our pockets. No one has supported Pokémon more in the past than us, helping distribute the product at fair market value instead of underpriced MSRP.”
Seeing them call themselves “secondary distributors” is pure joy, as is seeing them describe the act of scalping as if it’s a benevolent act of support. They’re scalpers. They pay lower prices to TPCi, and then receive higher prices themselves. Pokémon gains nothing at all from them other than a horrible reputation and a generation of players unable to buy the products.
Another person wrote saying they’d maxed out their credit cards buying 30th cards, and now didn’t know how to explain this to their wife. “I’ve been loyal to this brand for over 8 months and this is how they treat us?” he added. Eight months, my dude. Truly an OG. “They are no worse than a communist government controlling their currency. Pokemons greed ruined my livelihood.”
In a deleted post from Reddit’s /PokemonTCG, user Paul wrote, “Pokemon needs to do something. Everyone can get multiple ETBs, and as someone that go over 2000 from Pokemon Center, Walmart, Amazon, Target, and Best Buy drops I am PISSED.” Oh no! Oh Paul! “They made way too much supply and it’s hurting the people that actually ensure their business makes money. The hit rates are way too fucking high too. There’s literally no value in these sets because everyone can pull the rare bullshit.” He concludes, “This is insane and hurting countless small business owners like myself.”
If you’re in the mood for some schadenfreude this morning, you could do a lot worse than browse through Reddit channel r/PokeInvesting this morning. It’s soaked in the tears of the cretins that have been ruining the hobby for years.
People are asking each other whether now is the time to sell, whether this is the peak, and just like the memestock nonsense of a few years ago, they’re flooded with advice to just keep buying! Hodl! To the moon! But they’re already course-correcting, bending all logic to cope with this current situation (and the recent official reprint of Prismatic Evolution that wiped prices on that set too). “The 30th is a distraction from the big picture right now,” writes one such conspiracist. “Going to be like this for a while. In the meantime, might be a good time to buy a few things.”
It’s too early to say whether this could mark the beginning of the end of the tedious bubble that’s been ruining Pokémon since late 2024, and the real test will be the release of Delta Reign in November. If TPCi can have the sense to extend these more generous pull-rates to a new set, and in doing so further take chunks out of the scalping and resale markets, things could dramatically improve. Sadly, there’s little historic evidence that TPCi has ever had this kind of sense when it comes to the TCG, so I’m not holding my breath.
