The Xbox One Comes Out on November 22

Illustration for article titled The Xbox One Comes Out on November 22

After a morning filled with speculation and buzz, we finally know when we’re getting Microsoft’s next-generation video game console. The Xbox One is scheduled to hit store shelves on November 22, with a previously announced price of $500.

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Previous rumors ran the gamut, pegging the date as early as November 8, though the smart money as pointing to a late November release. The pre-release saga of the Xbox One has been one hell of a roller-coaster ride, with policy reversals and changes that seemingly came every week. But, with a retail timeframe firmly set, the battle for bragging rights moves to the place that matters most: storefronts.

UPDATE: the official announcement from Microsoft is right here. The November 22 date applies to 13 regional markets—Australia, Austria, Brazil, Canada, France, Germany, Ireland, Italy, Mexico, New Zealand, Spain, UK, and USA—with more to follow in 2014.

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So, after all the ups and downs, are you planning to get an Xbox One in November? A PS4, which comes out on November 15? Both? Sound off in the comments below.

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DISCUSSION

My call: The PS4 will sell ~4 million units by Christmas. The Xbox One will push ~2.5 mil. In the first year, the PS4 will be a pretty clear front runner, moving ~11 mil while One struggles to break 10 mil total by Christmas 2014. The first redesign will come in August of 2015, the Xbox One being made smaller and sleeker, with a yet again upgraded Kinect and an internal power supply. It will release at $349.99, a bigger cut that Microsoft wants, but needed to reinvigorate the One's sales.

At this point, the One will have a much larger catalog of exclusives than the PS4 and MS will use this to make LIVE seem like a better deal. One sales will pick up. By Christmas of 2015, the race to hit 20 million units sold will be picking up. Sony will reach it first, but by a narrow margin of ~1.5 mil. By this point, most people who care about gaming will have both systems and marketing will shift to drawing in the casuals.

E3 2016 will bring us Sony's redesign of the PS4, with a vastly increased camera and much more integrated Move functionality. The DualShock 4 will be redesigned to remove the mostly unsuccessful touch pad and the color bar will be moved forward into a move visible location. Some will complain that they have games that need the touch pad, but they'll be drowned out by the roars of applause. The strange back material on the DS4 will be replaced. Sony will be the first to hone in on the casuals, opening up the PS4 to a much more PC like environment and offering a cheap PS-Plus type casual service that will allow people to play games similar to the PS minis at a small fee. Microsoft will spend this year talking up Xbox Everywhere, their new push into the cell phone market with Nokia made devices that work much in the way the now-ailing PS Vita does. Both companies will seem very out of touch with gamers this year at the shows. By the holiday season, the consoles will be looking to move up to the high 30 mils in units sold, ~39 for the PS4 and ~37 for the One. The 360 servers will be taken offline this fall.

2017 will see a major jump in graphic gaming on the PC. Conversations about the Glorious PC Masterrace will resume as 4GB cards finally dip under $300 a piece. This will begin the rumors of "Is Sony working on the PS5?", but a major shift in purchasing patterns to digital downloads will throw much of the speculation of what it could be into turmoil. This year will be the first year that GameStop take major fiscal losses as package deals on the systems and digital downloads take the wind out of their sales. Sony will finally start pushing an accelerated launch calendar, strengthening their backend catalog of game. This E3 will be seen as a "return to roots". The last games will come out for the PS3 this fall, though it will be bad ports of Madden and NBA 2k18. The systems will run near ~50 mil units sold each, a very close battle. This year Microsoft will reintroduce the plans to make their platform mostly digital, but they will do so be offering carrots rather than sticks. A cheaper LIVE, free games, sharing permissions for digital games, and bonuses. People will cry foul, but many will enjoy the perks.

Broadcast television will be near fully integrated with the Xbox One by this point and for the first time, monthly sales of the system will eclipse the PS4. 2018 will bring much corporate speak of how the console is "in the middle" of its life, but gamers will start to feel its age. Super HDTVs, 12k and higher, will start to be common at CES and Ultracards that can support them will be touted by nVidia and AMD, though the cards will cost near $1k. Visual output devices will have vastly diversified since 2013 and things such as headsets and microscreens will vie for usage. 360 games and PS3 games will be pennies on the dollar at GameStop. The One and the PS4 will be ubiquitous by now, though the Xbone jokes likely won't have subsided entirely. The consoles will eclipse ~60 mil, setting them on track to surpass lifetime sales of the 360 and PS3. The PS4 will get a superfluous redesign this year that makes the device small enough to be completely transportable.

2019 will be a year full of people yammering about the next generation. Debates of if there will even be a "next generation" will ensue. Of course there will be as the current generation was quite successful, but the vast leaps in technology and the extreme affordability of micro PCs and gaming tablets, as well as the advent of game streaming on cell phones, makes the idea of spending $500 on a new console sound silly. We'll hear much talk about how game development is completely unsustainable at this point with an unreal amount of independent games releasing and many of the major franchises of the last generation have fallen to the way side. Digital library streaming of previous console generations will be a big hit by this point and time. The PS4 will end the year at ~72 mil units sold and ~71 for Xbox One. The Xbox One will get it's final redesign, but it will mostly just be to say they had one. People will not see a point in upgrading with new technology so close.

Looking to get a jump on Sony this time, Microsoft will announce the next Xbox at the end of January, 2020. They'll call the One "a major technical feat" and "the accomplishment of our generation". They'll talk about how they won the living room - and how they're looking to do it again. The new Xbox will be more of a concept than a device: a platform for every electronic device you own, like SmartGlass was, only with much more investiture. You'll be able to play your games anywhere, on anything. Go to a bar and seamlessly load up your save from your phone - just plug it into a TV. People will say it's too radical an idea. Sony will announce the PS5 within weeks. It will be a system that doubles down on the idea of gaming. Gamers will no longer be divided between what they like, but instead, how they play. Sony will push hard that games are why are gamers, not because we're technophiles. PS4, they'll promise, will continue well into the 2020s with support, and in fact will see the launch of many of their best games this year. People will think back to their (highly successful) foray into casual gaming and wonder where that went (it's still there, just not being touted). The PS5 will have a very disputed controller that has a multitude on unneeded inputs, including a heart rate sensor, gyroscope, and a full 3D touch pad. The launch game line-up will be considered the strongest we've ever seen as part of Sony's gamble on gaming. Both new consoles will feature 6GB graphics cards, 128-bit operating systems, and multi terabyte drives. This will be considered mediocre by GPC Master Race, which now enjoys as much as 8GB graphics single cards and petabyte drives. The One and the PS4 will eclipse ~80 mil units this year, despite the launch of the next generation. They'll have reached the same landmark their predecessor consoles reached, only a little faster. At this point, an Xbox One will cost $299 and a PS4 will be $269. They'll both include the camera in your bundle.

2021 will be the beginning of the end for the One and PS4. Their redesigns will still be the best selling thing on market, totally trouncing the PS5 and Xbox Everywhere in terms of sales as people buy in on the cheap systems and affordable games. We will begin to speculate if these systems can possibly match the ~135 mil PS3s sold, or even the 153 million PS2s. Via streaming, the PS4 and Xbox One will offer "sneak peeks" of the next console generation, allowing people to play the new games for ~5 hours, enticing them to upgrade. Unfortunately, due to the abundant availability of games, lack of major AAA titles, and general franchise fatigue, these new systems will be the first to not outsell the previous generation. The 360 will now be considered vintage and teenagers will play it in the way the play the N64 today, tough finding old input or HDMI 3.0 to component converters will be a huge hassle. GameStop will offer huge subsidies for upgraders and try to hook them on their game subscription plans, which lets you get your digital download from GameStop for a monthly fee and works like audible (cheaper than buying them one off from Microsoft and Sony, but GameStop offers huge kickbacks). By this point, GameStop (and most stores) will be quite close to fully automated and will be run by one person at a time, three employees per store. The company will be hemorrhaging money, though their diversification into older consoles will bring them a certain about of public admiration and cash flow. The Xbox One and PS4 will reach ~90 mil in sales this year, though the Xbox One will be ~3 mil ahead due to their cable box agreements with Time Warner and Comcast that lets you use the system as a cable box.

2022 will be the Last Good Year for the One and Four. The One will only get ported copies of some major Xbox Everywhere releases, while the PS4 will get a few huge titles that have been in production since who knows when. The Last Guardian will be rereleased in UXHD. Half-Life 3 will be announced. After this year, the only people still holding on to the consoles will be people waiting until the redesign of the next system before upgrading or people who can't afford new ones. People who were teenagers when the Xbox 360 released will be entering their late 30s and looking to recapture their youth or to show their kids the games they played when they were young. Kotaku will now be run by Evan Nacisse as Stephen Totilo joined Polygon in 2019.

In 2023 someone will read the post and say, "Well, that was wildly inaccurate."