This Year's Best Picture Nominees, Ranked By Likelihood Of Winning

I don’t know what level of emotional devastation and historical weight needs to hit Oscar voters for I’m Still Here to win Best Picture, but it’s a long shot. The film——a gripping, heartbreaking drama that has already made history as the first Brazilian film nominated for Best Picture—follows Eunice Paiva (Fernanda Torres) as she fights for truth after her husband’s disappearance during Brazil’s military dictatorship. Torres’ powerhouse performance even won her a Golden Globe, but the Academy still leans toward English-language prestige films, making a win unlikely. Yes, Parasite shattered that barrier, but that was a rare, undeniable cultural moment. Unless voters rally behind its raw power and human rights message, I’m Still Here will likely remain a celebrated nominee rather than a Best Picture winner.

Look, I have no idea what galaxies need to be conquered, worm juice needs to be ingested, or prophecies need to be fulfilled for Oscar voters to properly respect the masterclass in world building director Denis Villeneuve delivers here, but as of now, they do not. Dune: Part Two is one of the most beautifully shot films of this decade, especially the monochromatic gladiatorial battle featuring a bloodthirsty and bald Feyd-Rautha Harkonnen (Austin Butler) looking to show his dominance. The film about Paul Atreides (Timothée Chalamet) ingratiating himself with the Fremen before fully stepping into his title as Lisan al Gaib puts human struggles with love, familial succession, and destiny on an intergalactic scale without cheapening the authenticity.

It’s just going to be really hard for a movie to snag Best Picture when Oscar voters didn’t even think the filmmaker who helmed it had earned a Best Director nod. It’s true that CODA achieved this feat only a handful of years ago, so there is still hope. But unless a storm of votes comes riding in on the back of Shai-Hulud, the sequel will suffer the same fate as its predecessor which went home without a Best Picture win.

Wicked is fun. Wicked made a lot of money. Wicked has inspired people who can’t sing to try and hit high notes only certain vocal chords in human existence can hit. With all of that said, Wicked is not winning an Oscar for Best Picture. The theatrical adaption of the legendary Broadway play is a clever and heartfelt exploration into how two very different witches—Elphaba (Cynthia Erivo), born with green skin, and Glinda (Ariana Grande), the socially adept “good witch” from The Wizard of Oz—become unlikely friends before fate steers their paths in opposite directions.

Unfortunately, Wicked might suffer from what held Barbie back from Oscar gold, since The Academy usually rewards films with more dramatic examinations of the human condition (Oppenheimer, Moonlight, Parasite) and fewer singalongs. That could explain why a musical hasn’t won the top honor at the Oscars since Chicago did so 22 years ago. Maybe the undeniable charm and on-screen chemistry of Grande and Erivo will be enough to sway voters to cast their votes for this fun yet complex film that became the face of 2024 cinema. But don’t count on it.

If this was a month ago, when Emilia Pérez received the most Oscar nominations of any film weeks after winning Best Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy at the Golden Globes, the Jacques Audiard-directed musical crime film would’ve been the leading candidate for the Best Picture award at the Oscars. Unfortunately, Karla Sofía Gascón, who plays the titular drug kingpin who goes through gender-affirming surgery, has caused a storm of controversy that has overshadowed any of the film’s achievements. Her racist and derogatory past tweets about Muslims and George Floyd have become so entwined with the identity of the film that the actress hasn’t been part of any of the Oscar campaign for the film. Meanwhile, back at Cannes, the film’s director referred to Spanish as “the language of developing countries, of modest countries, of poor people and migrants,” and the film itself had been derided by critics as overtly racist and transphobic. And it’s a shame because there are aspects of it that are worth appreciating.

Zoe Saldana delivers a career-defining portrayal as Rita Mora Castro, the lawyer who helps Emilia get the surgery she desires after years of gender dysphoria. The film dazzles with musical numbers and culminates in a tragic ending that underscores its unvarnished look at how hard it is to escape your history. But those elements seem destined to be overshadowed by issues both within the film, and surrounding it.

The Substance is a gripping psychological drama following Demi Moore’s character as she navigates a moral labyrinth after a life-altering event. Moore’s raw, shape-shifting performance as Elisabeth Sparkle practically crackles with awards-season buzz. But while the film has already snagged the Golden Globe for Best Actress in a Musical or Comedy, and Critics’ Choice Award for Best Actress and Best Screenplay, it still faces stiff competition in the crowded Oscar race.

In one particularly haunting scene, Sparkle paces a dim motel room, her reflection trembling in a cracked mirror as she wrestles with a choice that could unravel her life. Even with gripping scenes like these, there’s no guarantee of a Best Picture victory when you’re up against an Academy that could pivot anywhere from sweeping historical epics to tender, indie crowd-pleasers. Still, there’s a chance this movie can leverage its critical praise, gleaming trophies, and its acclaimed, unflinchingly raw central performance to turn that Oscar dream into a golden reality.

Nickel Boys, RaMell Ross’s cinematic adaptation of Colson Whitehead’s powerful novel, has emerged as a strong contender. The film’s potential for a Best Picture win rests heavily on its impactful, award-winning cinematography, which masterfully conveys the oppressive atmosphere of the Dozier School. (It’s truly inexplicable how a movie shot this beautifully isn’t even nominated for Best Cinematography at the Oscars.) In telling the story of Elwood Curtis (Ethan Herisse) and Jack Turner (Brandon Wilson), two Black boys in the Jim Crow South whose lives are irrevocably altered by their experiences at a brutal reform school, Nickel Boys captures an authenticity most of the other Best Picture nominees don’t come close to.

Its greatness hinges on the artful balance between historical authenticity and deeply human storytelling, capturing the brutal realities of the boys’ experiences at the school while never losing sight of the resilience that can blossom in even the darkest corners. The performances are infused with an honesty that brings the book’s evocative prose to life—every glance, every moment of silence, speaks volumes about the boys’ collective struggle for dignity and freedom. By interweaving past and present, Nickel Boys forces audiences to confront how the echoes of systemic injustice can still reverberate today, ultimately delivering a cinematic experience that is equal parts harrowing, empathetic, and deeply necessary. Let’s see if The Academy is ready.

From the moment Timothée Chalamet strums his first chord as Bob Dylan, you can practically feel the electricity in the air—like the film itself is holding its breath. Chalamet’s transformation is so uncanny you start to believe you’re watching Dylan in his prime, complete with the restless spirit and poetic soul that turned folk music on its head. It’s the kind of performance that doesn’t just deserve an Oscar nod; it begs the question, “How has he not won already?” Scenes like the notorious “going electric” moment are so perfectly captured, they could become instant cinematic classics, worthy of the standing ovation that every major award show loves to give.

Now, let’s talk about the elephant in the auditorium: a music biopic hasn’t clinched Best Picture in over four decades (we’re looking at you, Amadeus). That’s a hurdle big enough to make even the most confident contenders stumble. But when a movie nails the raw intensity of an artist’s journey—showing the flawed genius, the cultural upheaval, and that singular voice echoing through the corridors of music history—it might just break that drought. The Academy adores transformative performances and heartfelt storytelling, and A Complete Unknown has both in spades. If anything can swing the vote, it’s the powerful combo of a revelatory Chalamet at his best and a film that hits all the right emotional chords, reminding everyone why we still can’t stop humming those old Dylan tunes.

Conclave, an exquisitely choreographed ballet of suspicion, faith, and ambition set within the secretive walls of the Vatican, begins with the death of the Pope and then plunges us deep into the high-stakes drama of a papal election where Ralph Fiennes, as Cardinal Thomas Lawrence, uncovers secrets that threaten the very existence of the church. Director Edward Berger stages every hush and glance with Oscar-level precision. Few movies can so effectively speak volumes about corruption in scenes that are as enjoyable as the hushed conversations between Golden Globe-winning titans Fiennes and Stanley Tucci here.

The accumulation of BAFTA, Golden Globe, and Critics’ Choice Movie Awards, particularly in key categories like Best Film, Best Adapted Screenplay, and ensemble acting, significantly strengthens Conclave’s position for Best Picture at the Oscars. It’s that rare blend of cinematic spectacle and soul-searching nuance that might just earn it a place in Oscar history.

Anora is the kind of movie that comes out of nowhere and completely floors you. Directed by Sean Baker, it follows a young Brooklyn stripper named Ani (played by Mikey Madison) who gets swept up in a whirlwind romance with the son of a Russian oligarch. What starts as a fast-paced, wild love story quickly spirals into something much darker when his powerful family steps in, determined to erase her from their son’s life. It’s gritty, funny, heartbreaking, and so full of life that you almost forget you’re watching a movie—it just feels that real. That’s probably why it pulled off that jaw-dropping Critics’ Choice Awards win for Best Picture, despite not winning in any other category: It’s the ultimate underdog story, both on and off the screen.

If there’s one scene that makes Anora a serious Oscar contender, it’s the explosive confrontation between Anora and her husband’s family when they try to annul their marriage. It’s the kind of moment that sticks with you—the tension, the raw emotion, and Mikey Madison delivering what might be the performance of her career. She’s not just acting; she’s living in that moment, shifting from desperation to fury to defiant resilience in the span of minutes. The cinematography keeps it intimate, letting every flicker of emotion hit you like a punch. You can almost feel the Academy voters nodding in approval. If Anora wins Best Picture, it won’t be because it had the biggest budget or the flashiest campaign—it’ll be because it’s the kind of film that makes you feel something, and in the end, that’s what truly matters.

In the intricate dance of awards season, patterns often emerge that hint at potential Oscar glory. Notably, seven of the last eight Best Picture winners at the Academy Awards also clinched either Best Picture, Best Director, or both at the Golden Globes. This trend bodes well for The Brutalist which recently secured the Golden Globe for Best Motion Picture – Drama, and saw Brady Corbet honored as Best Director. Such dual recognition not only amplifies the film’s visibility but also positions it as a formidable contender for the coveted Best Picture Oscar. Beyond the critical acclaim it’s earned, it also happens to be exactly the type of film Oscar voters love.

Centered on László Tóth, a Hungarian-Jewish architect and Holocaust survivor portrayed by Adrien Brody, the film chronicles his pursuit of the American Dream and the transformative power of art in post-war society. The film’s gargantuan 215-minute runtime matches the epic scope of the story and puts it on a similar scale as the masterful Oppenheimer, which was rewarded for its ambitious storytelling and meticulous character development with a Best Picture honor at last year’s Academy Awards. Once Tóth’s niece, Zsófia (Raffey Cassidy), delivers a poignant speech revealing that the Van Buren Community Center, one of László’s most significant projects, was intentionally designed to mirror the concentration camps that once imprisoned their family, the Oscar was pretty much won.