Kotaku
Don't believe in the Madden Curse? Great. Think the Madden Curse is just a laugh? Good for you, the world needs laughter. But if you're one of the millions of suckers who genuinely believe that appearing on the cover of EA Sport's Madden dooms an athlete to a season of injury and/or misfortune, please, read on. You may as well see why you're a sucker.
Since 1998, when Garrison Hearst became the first person besides John Madden himself to appear on the cover of EA's monster franchise, eleven NFL players have graced the series' box. And, as we'll see in a minute, yes, bad things happened to some of them. But you know what? Bad things happen to a lot of people in the NFL. We'll see that in a minute, too.
"Look, some of the things that happen to guys on the cover, they're legitimate", says EA Sports' Chris Erb, who I had a chat with to discuss the curse. "Vinnie Young, for example. We put him on the cover [last year], he missed a game, and he'd never missed a game in his life." The same is true, he says, of Madden 06 star Donovan McNabb. "He'd never had surgery in his life, ever, but the year he was on the cover, he went under the knife. So these kind of things get into people's minds".
"But none of us truly believe in it" Erb is quick to add. "The media tends to play this sort of thing up, but...I mean, the chances of a player being injured in the NFL are so high that we laugh it all off, because it's unfounded". So the curse doesn't put players off appearing on the cover, then?
"No way. We've spoken to plenty of guys from within the league, and they don't think it's a jinx. The players, who we work closely with, they definitely don't think it's a jinx, because they know better than anyone how easy it is to get injured, or to have a bad season."
So rather than players fearing the curse, Erb says they've instead got athletes beating down their door. "Every year, we get 100 guys calling us, begging to appear on the cover. It's a big deal" he says. "Shaun Alexander told us, after he got hurt [he was injured during the 2006 season, after appearing on the cover of Madden 07], that he'd rather be on the cover and injured than not be on the cover and stay healthy all year". I ask why. "This generation of guys in the league now grew up playing Madden. To them, it's the Wheaties Box of the 21st century".
So...the NFL doesn't believe in the curse. The players don't believe in it. EA Sports don't believe in it. And you shouldn't, either, because it's all based on hearsay, selective statistic cherry-picking and misinformation. When you look at two key factors - the NFL's injury rate and the actual performance of all eleven cover stars in the year they appeared on the box - you'll see the curse is nothing but a load of baloney.
INJURY RATE
First, let's look at the injury rate in the NFL. The National Football League prides itself on its big men and big hits. As you'd expect it would, football being a sport based around the concept of 22 large, heavily-armoured men crashing into each other for a few hours every Sunday. But when the average size of an NFL player is 6'1.5" and 245 lbs, that crashing doesn't come consequence free. Because between athletes hitting, being hit or trying to avoid being hit, NFL players get hurt. A lot.
A few years back, the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review conducted an exhaustive study on the injury rates of the NFL, based on the league's injury statistics and interviews with players, officials, team doctors and coaches. Their findings? That around half the players in the NFL are injured every year (spiking in 2003 to an absurd 68.5% of players in the league). That 2003 figure was eight times higher than any other US national sporting league. And that includes the NHL and motorsports.
In other words, you don't need to be appearing on the cover of an EA Sports game to get yourself hurt in the NFL. Just suiting up will take care of that. Especially if you're a QB or a RB, the two most common positions a cover star will play. On average, 40% of QBs will get hurt badly enough that they miss at least one game during any given season, while for RBs the figures are even worse, with less than half the league's starters destined to make it through an entire season unscathed.
THE ELEVEN
Let's now look at all eleven players to have appeared on the cover of Madden. Some things to consider: the curse applies to only the year they appear on the cover (Daunte Culpepper and Eddie George rebounded later in their careers, for exaample). Also, Madden is always dated a year later than the actual year it appears. Madden 2002, for example, was released in 2001. Which means the season in which the player appears on the cover is a year earlier than that on the cover of the game (ie the Madden 2002 cover star appeared for the 2001 season). Got that? Wonderful.
GARRISON HEARST - Madden 99
THE MYTH: The 49ers' RB Garrison Hearst was the first player to appear on the cover. He proceeded to break his ankle in the playoffs, and broke it so bad he wouldn't play again until the 2001 season.
THE REALITY: Good luck finding a copy of Madden 99 with Hearst on the cover. The vast majority still had John Madden himself, alone, on the front. And yeah, it was a bad break, but he also rushed for 1570 yards (2105 total yards) for the year, and was named to both the NFC Pro Bowl and All-Pro teams.
BARRY SANDERS - Madden 2000
THE MYTH: On the verge of breaking Walter Payton's all-time rushing record, out of nowhere Sanders retires from the NFL.
THE REALITY: For starters, he's not the cover star. Madden is. Sanders only appears in a small background shot behind the game's logo. Secondly, while his announcement came just before the season in which he appeared on the cover, Sanders would later admit that it was the Detroit Lion's propensity for continual suckage that caused him to call it quits, something which had been building up long before he appeared on the cover.
DORSEY LEVENS - Madden 2000 (PAL Territories)
THE MYTH: There is none. Levens had a great year.
THE REALITY: Like I said, Levens had a great year. 1999 was the second-best year of his eleven-year career, and he not only rushed for 1034 yards (second-best season), he caught 71 passes for 573 yards, both career highs.
EDDIE GEORGE: Madden 2001
THE MYTH: A costly fumble in the playoffs in 2000, the year he was on the cover, lost the Titans the game. But curse advocates mainly point to his 2001 season, the year after he appeared on the cover, when a niggling toe injury contributed to career-lows in yards rushing (939 yards) and yards per carry (3).
THE REALITY: Uh, you can't pick and choose which year a player sucks. It's got to be the year they appear on the cover. And in 2000, George posted career highs in rushing yards (1509) and rushing TDs (14). As a result, he made the AFC Pro Bowl team and was also named an All-Pro.
DAUNTE CULPEPPER: Madden 2002
THE MYTH: Had a fantastic 2000 season, throwing for nearly 4000 yards. In 2001, however, a back injury meant he only appeared in eleven games, and even taking this into account his productivity dropped off.
THE REALITY: All that's true. For what it's worth, he threw for over 3400 yards in each of his next three seasons.
MARSHALL FAULK - Madden 2003
THE MYTH: A versatile back, Faulk amassed 2147 combined yards (both rushing and receiving) in the 2001 season. In 2002, however, this dropped off substantially. The St Louis Rams, after going 14-2 and appearing in the Super Bowl, crashed to 7-9.
THE REALITY: The Rams of 2002 were decimated by injuries, not only to Faulk's QB Kurt Warner but key linemen Orlando Pace and Tom Nutten as well. Those three injuries would impact the production of any RB, especially one as reliant on receiving yards as Faulk. Regardless, at 29 (approaching old age for a RB) he still amassed 1490 combined yards.
MICHAEL VICK - Madden 2004
THE MYTH: The league's brightest star coming into the 2003 season, Michael Vick broke his leg in a preseason game. The week after appearing on the cover. His career, once promising, has never been the same since.
THE REALITY: That is the reality. Vick had a bad 2003, and things only got worse.
RAY LEWIS - Madden 2005
THE MYTH: The Ravens, division champions the previous year, failed to make the playoffs. He also missed the last two games of the year due to injury. Oh, and after tallying six interceptions in 2003, didn't get a single one in 2004.
THE REALITY: That's statistical cherry-picking at its best. The facts are, Ray Lewis - the first defensive player to appear on the cover - enjoyed one of his best seasons ever, and was named to both the AFC Pro Bowl team and a first-team All-Pro.
DONOVAN McNABB - Madden 2006
THE MYTH: McNabb, who led the Eagles to the Super Bowl in 2004, played hurt for a lot of the 2005 season. His stats were down, and the Eagles finished 6-10.
THE REALITY: He did hurt himself, and missed the last five games of the season when he finally decided to have surgery. He still cobbled together 2507 passing yards at an average of 278 yards per game, though, and earned a respectable QB rating of 85.
SHAUN ALEXANDER - Madden 2007
THE MYTH: Had one of the best years ever for a running back in 2005, rushing for 1880 yards and setting an NFL record for TDs with 28. But in 2006, he broke his foot, missed six games then saw his TD record broken by the Chargers' LaDainian Tomlinson.
THE REALITY: No hiding it, it was a bad year for Alexander. He rushed for nearly 1000 yards less than his 2005 season, and hasn't been the same player since.
VINCE YOUNG - Madden 2008
THE MYTH: Having never missed a game in his life, he missed one during the 2007 regular season.
THE REALITY: So what? Young continued his NFL apprenticeship, increasing his yardage, completion rate and QB rating while leading the Titans to the NFL playoffs for the first time since 2003.
CONCLUSION
So in total, and I'm discounting Sanders since he didn't play the season he appeared on the cover, we're left with ten guys. One had a straight-up disaster of a year and has been "cursed" ever since (Mike Vick). We have four players with "disappointing" seasons, three due to injury (Culpepper, McNabb, Alexander) and one due to injuries in key positions around him (Faulk).
Of those five, Daunte Culpepper (who threw for 3853 yards in 2002 and 4717 in 2004) and Donovan McNabb (who after another injury-plagued year in 2006 returned in 2007 to throw for over 3300 yards) would rebound in later years, while Shaun Alexander's career is far from over. These strong performances in a players' post-Madden career rule out any notions that the curse affects the remainder of a player's career.
We're then left with five guys who had good years. Great years, even. We have two who, while missing out on top-shelf accolades, still had a highly successful season (Levens, Young). And then we have three players who had standout seasons, and were named to both Pro Bowl and All-Pro squads (Hearst, George, Lewis). Which dispels the idea that it's only the year a player appears on the cover that they're affected.
That's a 50% success rate. Throw in the fact over half the league's players are injured every season - the major factor in a "cursed" players cover-year performance - and what looked like a curse from the safety of a messageboard and/or armchair looks less like the curse you may have thought it was, and more the load of rubbish you hopefully now think it is.
Comments
Carl Sagan would be proud. Also annoyed that everyone keeps asking him to say billions.
whats a madden?
Damn I hope they put the whole Patriots team on the cover of Madden 09. I would like to see bad things happen to them!!!
Lets put the entire Patriots roster on the cover of Madden 09 to end the reign of douchery.
Wow James Randi was right. People will believe anything. When I heard of this cures (2 years ago actually) I thought to myself - DUH, their football players! Athletes put a lot of strain in their bodies.
The Madden Curse is real. Don't believe the lies.
I can see Vick right now.. muttering to himself alone in his cell. "Fucking Madden."
Alot of these issues, is that after they appear on madden, their careers have gone spiraling down hill. Vick, Mcnabb, Alexander and Lewis have gone from all-pro to all-no since the cover. Young might have been the exception.
If anything, it's clearly psychological. A player sees the early issues, and keeps hearing of the issues, and it gets in there head. Talk to LT, HE believes it enough to turn down the cover. Like the Boston Curse, you keep hearing enough and people think it is fact.
About time someone debunked this one. Although I guess the numbers always spoke for themselves, just nobody paid any attention.
Also good to hear from EA in this article too. Good to know the NFL players themselves don't give two shits about the Madden curse.
@Fried Yoda:
I am going to co-sign with you on this.
The Mythbusters, Carl Sagan, and the Amazing Randi all in one post. Awesome. Though I thought the Madden curse was that it was boring each and every year(college ball makes better video games).
Bravo Mr. Plunkett. I still say Vince Young had a terrible year but that's just me.
Sure you can say all of the injuries, bad seasons, bad plays ending a teams chances in playoffs, bad overall records for teams, and so on are coincidences, but the fact remains that they are still there. It's not just "they do bad". Most of your guys listed who still did good, DID get hurt (take Vince Young this year, he did get hurt and clearly shouldn't have played against the Chargers when Collins would have given the Titans a better chance, though his overall season was decent), and injury is part of the curse.
Don't get an eagles fan started.
"Vinnie Young?" I've never heard Vince called that; VY, Vinsanity sure, but never Vinnie.
Why you gotta spoil our fun? :*-(
50 percent of world-class curling champions who closely resembled the residue in my tea leaves went on to fail medaling in the Olympics.
Hopefully this will put it to rest...sort of.
@Grumps: Word
Uh, this article is incredibly hypocritical.
All I read was statistical cherry picking trying to deny the fact that they had bad seasons or were injured.
The article mentions several times that only the year that you are on the cover counts. So why even mention the fact that culpeper had three good years after the curse year? It's completely irrelevant.
For marshal faulk, the REALITY is that he had a bad year. One of the worse of his career, there is not denying that FACT, what the rest of his team did or did not do is irrelevant.
Not sure what you mean when you say "that is statistical cherry picking at its best" when referring to ray lewis. He has had a very bad season by his standards, and missed two games with injury. You can't use the fact that he made the pro bowl as proof that he had a good year, as any football fan knows, the pro bowl is a COMPLETE joke, nothing more than a popularity contest.
The McNabb thing is just funny. He missed 5 games due to injury. That is a third of the season. Not only that, he only had a decent year when he wasn't injured. You cant try and sugar coat this one. Its the curse in full effect.
Vince Young. The titans went to the playoffs because of their defense. Look up youngs numbers, he was AWFUL. 9 TDs and 17 INTS, thas is horrible. He regressed. He didnt have a single big run this year, he was hobbled by that toe injury ALL Year. He was incredibly bad.
@huginn (XBL - WendingoPSU): And yet, when LT turns it down, he's injured for the playoffs and watches from the sidelines as the Patriots take down the Chargers.
That's comedy.
@AwShucks: Injury isn't part of the 'curse'. It's part of the game.
You forgot to say myth busted ;)
Seriously, did this need debunking? I think everyone just thought it was kind of a coincidence, not an actual curse.
The Cubs are cursed, the Madden cover is a funny thing to talk about every year. Way to kill the joke.
On another note.
Did anyone see Pat's defense wtfpwn the redzone last night?.
Anyone?
The kind of people who believe in curses are not going to be swayed by a silly thing like facts.
@Lou3000: Yes, because water cooler conversations across the nation involving the Madden curse are followed by a slew of hilarity.
The Madden Curse is about as valid as any 'curse.' No it's not real, it's just a series of circumstances tied together by one common denominator. There are some exceptions, but overall, the cover athlete has a poor season compared to the season that got them to the box cover.
But name one religion based in fact. Does the God you believe in have an office at Randolph and State to quell naysayers? But if I were to come on here and say that religion is merely a story to maintain peace and order within a community, I doubt many people would back me up, regardless of any research I might do.
The fact is, those that appear on the Madden cover generally tend to have a bad follow-up season. The cause is of little concern. The details are unimportant. And truths can be stretched a bit when it comes to such trivial matters of curses or religion.
In short: Thanks for ruining my fun, Luke!
@fyren: All I saw was one douchebag QB vs another douchebag QB.
The "Red Ring of Death"...a whole lot safer than the mighty Madden Curse.
@Fried Yoda: ROFL XD. funny but true.
Poor Mike Vick. If the cover curse hadn't gotten him, his life might not have had such an unfortunate downturn that he had to resort to a life of crime. This is the kind of thing that creates Batman villains, you know.
@Fried Yoda:
Yea, Tommie was garbage. But the defense... I'm just sayin >.>
Don't hate
I think it's fine for people to joke about the curse, but it pissed me off to be on message boards during this season and every time Vince Young would be on the ground for more than a few seconds you'd get the immediate "OMG MADDEN CURSE HAHAHA!!!!" reaction, even if he was fine.
Well done, I like the year by year breakdown and well thought out response. This further backs up the truth that it's not a curse, just sometime a coincidence.
Naturally though people will make what they will of anything to further some odd truth they believe in.
Dany Heatley still believes the EA curse.
Nice try trying to bust our beloved Madden myth Mr. Plunkett... too bad we're on the internet, where we don't prove points with facts, but rather with CAPS LOCK AND YOU'RE WRONG THE MADDEN COVER IS CURSED GET OUT OF MY HEAD!
Here, I can debunk this myth real easy!
You have players in a league that sports an over 50% injury rate, right? Each year, that's their odds. They are more likely to get hurt than not.
So, if someone makes the cover for Madden one year, it's based on the season they just played, right? And that season must have been pretty good for them to be put on the cover, which hopefully means an injury free season. So that year, they beat the odds.
The season following, the odds catch up to them. They get hurt. I admit this is the gambler's fallacy I'm arguing here, but it still makes sense.
If you have a good season, you make it onto the cover of Madden. Are you going to have another good season? Chances are you are not - chances are you will get injured. And if you made cover of Madden, you pretty much got the EA MVP award. If you are on top, your game has nowhere to go but down.
I'm just sayin' - odds aren't with Madden cover models. Odds are with injury.
@Tonx:
This was actually debunked a long time ago by Snopes (more people should read that site):
[www.google.com]
@Tonx: That's pretty damn good debunkation. Now try tackling the Theory of Relativity!
Good Read. The curse is a stupid thing to hear about, but people love superstition. The NFL has always been a league prone to injuries and severe drops in production.
Just because they still had great numbers or still played afterwards doesn't mean they weren't cursed. They still were hurt or had suck years as a team or individually.
To really disprove you need to see how often they were injured before and after, performance before and after and lastly, team record before an after.
We need more stats and info. Until then the Madden curse lives on :P
Is the "attempting to pick up an undercover police officer posing as a prostitute the night before the Super Bowl and on the same day as you receive an award for your 'high moral character' from Athletes in Action" curse still real?
I'm asking for a friend.
IF this curse is real, can EA please put Tom Brady on the cover... preferably within the next 2 weeks.
@Tuffy: So is the "Vanish off the face of the Earth before going into the Superbowl because of an bipolar issues" curse
Very fun read. I really have no more input than that but it was a very enjoyable article.
This all started when the first Track and Field game from Konami put Steve Prefontaine on the cover.
@njhardcoreguy:
Let me save you some trouble there, its not Brady, hes average at best. Anyone of us could do the same thing with that O-line. Although they do need to get off his ass and start seeing him for the average player that he is. Let's see him do that stuff in Detroit and Oakland and then judge him because I just dont see it.
Don't forget that after a season spectacular enough to get a player the "Honor" of appearing on the Madden cover, he'll have 31 teams full of large, angry men out to prove that he didn't deserve it.
@Len Bias Cocaine Surplus: Gotta be Michael Strahan for both, right?
@huginn (XBL - WendingoPSU):
"I would have gotten away with the dogfighting if it hadn't been for you lousy kids...and your Madden game!"
Seriously, though, not being anything close to a football fan myself, I'd still like to see the debunking expanded to include the following points:
1. How many of the people who got the cover shot were approaching the predictable ends of their careers when they landed on the cover (i.e. how man of them would have started to show noticable performance drops even if the Madden game didn't exist).
2. How many of them had unusually good years leading into the Madden cover, only to resume their regular level of playing the year they got the cover. As with most major awards, it seems like you wouldn't get picked based on your total career, but rather just the what you've done in the last year. That being the case, people should be more likely to be selected when they have an anomolously excellent year that they shouldn't ever be able to repeat under any circumstances, than if they were just rolling along in a consistently great career.
3. How many football players manage to go a whole career without a performance-affecting injury of any sort? It's fine and well to say how likely they would be to last through the "curse" season without receiving an injury, but I'd be more curious to see how much of an inevitability it is for all players, at some point or another.
Very good article. I will pass it on.
Still, it's fun to cherry pick stats and sensationalize it. Isn't that what the media is for anyway?
LOL Nice use of Adam and Jamie from Mythbusters on the picture.
Why hasn't John Madden been a victim of the John Madden curse?