There was,and still maybe, some short term gain to make on the EA offer. I really think that even without the ea offer that ttwo would be worth over 20.

I still think that ttwo will be a good long term position, and I've got my money where my mouth is. TTWO cyclical nature has made me a nice chunk of change but I think the price will be in less flux for now on.

Right now is usually the beginning of the gaming and toy slump in stock prices. Hasbro,ATVI,and TTWO are all up. I have long positions in all of them but I'll need to figure out how to better predict.

It helps to own stock in companies who 's products don't suck.

Techguy1138

The market and economy in general have not been doing that great which you have ignored that in all your posts.

Take Two is worth the stock price trading today which at the market opening on 4/29 is $26.47. You may only think it is worth $20 but the market does not agree with you. If EA wants to buy up the stock that is selling now they will have to pay a price that is higher than their offer.

I think other companies involved probably have agreed to wait until after GTA was released before talking with management. Something that was asked of EA too but they decided to try a hostile takeover.

NullsRevenge

Responding to your own words, I too feel TTWO is worth $20 per share; however, that's below the $26 that EA is offering. And I agree that TTWO has a great roster of titles-- that's why EA made the deal, after all.

TTWO might again be worth more than $26 per share someday, but it's not right now. It's probably overvalued by a third on the basis of the deal. And that's ok, it's how the market works. But for people to really think the stock wouldn't be at $20 without the deal is nuts.

It's like if you had five dollars and I said, hey you only have five dollars, and you said no I don't, I've got more than ten dollars. And them asked me for ten dollars and when I gave it to you, you screamed in my face HEY LOOK I TOLD YOU I HAD MORE THAN TEN DOLLARS XD!!1!

wild homes is non-canonical

TTWO has one of the strongest portfolios of game companies and games you can have.

The new management has done a great job of turning the company around and was just to wait to see the results of gta 4.

The main dip was around the hot coffee and accounting scandals that drove the stock price well below the value of the franchises it holds.

At $9 a share the company values was 684 million. The GTA franchise is worth at least half of that. Add in little franchises like bioshock and civilization and you can see the company is worth more than that.

I thought that Sony or MS would have bought them at that price for GTA 4 alone.

TTWO is worth a sold $20~ a share and is going to be a profitable copmany that will be a thorn in EA's side for years to come. Take Two is growing up.

I think that Niko is going to knee cap Madden.

Techguy1138

joelface

justhesh

Check out a three month chart of the stock. Aside from EA's offer, the stock has done nothing. This is just a blip and I would argue is one that cannot be explained by the release of GTA IV, given that everyone knew months ago that it would be a huge seller. The EA offer probably correlates to 90-95% of the stock price rise.

[finance.yahoo.com]

Catalyst

PearceShea

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wild homes is non-canonical

Let's point out that while yes, ZelnickMedia have only run the thing for about a year, that year was a loss too. It's not like Strauss Zelnick has a habit of making a lot of money off of distressed companies and then not turning those companies around (Lillian Vernon is the most recent flop of Zelnick's that comes to mind - and it's not like Blockbuster is doing all that awesome either)

PearceShea

Adam Rock

EA tried to take advantage of Take Two which was in a slump earlier this year because GTA4 was delayed to buy them out cheaper than they could. If GTA4 was released last fall then none of this probably would have happened.

A few weeks ago Take Two Management has said it has talked with other companies who were interested. So I don't know where there is this idea that Take Two HAS to sell out to EA and that EA is the only company that would be interested in buying Take Two.

NullsRevenge

The game's high quality also indicate that Take-Two and the Rockstar studio that made the game are also well-run operations, with the potential to crank out more hits, said Mike Hickey, an analyst with Janco Partners.

"EA should just pay up and just get this deal done and quit being so cheap about it. You've made a $2 billion bid ... and you're worried about three or four dollars per share," Hickey said.

rockinthestocks

Jackel2072

rockinthestocks

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PearceShea

frieze

PearceShea

PearceShea

Look at the math. EA's offer inflated the value of the T2's stock by something like 30% while the release of GTA has only added somthing like 10%.

That is, the price is what it is because everyone thought they would make a profit if they bought T2 stocks before it accepted EA's offer, thus driving up the price big time before GTA IV came out.

If EA never made the offer it stands to reason that Take Two's stock would at this moment, be around the low 20s -at the very best.

And it's also important to note that most video game companies lack the staff to turn a profit between most games - meaning that T2's shares will drop to about where they were.

PearceShea

Or a child, for that matter.

Jest

To put this into perspective, before EA made the offer Take-Two stock was trading at somewhere between $14-$15 per share. Now, is Take-Two wise for not accepting the deal? I don't know, but quite a bit of their value is based on the idea this deal happens.

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jayntampa

I was of the impression that if TT sold the company to EA before GTAIV dropped they would have to be total fools. Of course this has a lot more to do than just GTA but one would have to be a total idiot to think EA or any other game company on earth would scoff at the chance to own that IP right about now. So...yeah...of course, this is more than just GTAIV but does this not allow TT to look at EA and say "we told you your bid ain't high enough son, give us more monies or step off"

Oh...and I would assume that the profits of GTAIV would be all gravy at this point as well? I'm asking...

Striderhayasa - Phillyyakk on PSN and Live.

EA is looking more foolish to this by the moment

huginn

if I were EA, I'd be tired of his game already. I'd publicly announce that I'm withdrawing the buyout offer, and then use holding companies to buy huge blocks of T2 stock as it tumbles below $26 per share, and then consolidate those blocks into a minority ownership stake and give the remaining shareholders little choice but to agree to a new, less favorable deal.

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EvoAnubis

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A Blind man could see that GTA IV's immense hype and media coverage would bring about huge sales and a rise in stock pricing.

I understand if you're a little late to the party and frustrated because T2 is out of EA's reach now, but don't accuse me of hopping on the bandwagon or being ignorant of how the US economy works.

Alexander-The-Great

Investors will see that even better than anticipated GTA sales AND a stock-inflating buyout offer (which combine to make a really favorable, and really teporary, stock situation that's unlikely to be repeated any time soon, if ever) only push the T2 stock just slightly higher than EA's offer, and will then accept the deal.

wild homes is non-canonical

@badasscat: Thank you for the dose of reality. This is 100% spot on. The price was long ago taken into account.

Do you really think the biggest video game company on the planet was trying to purchase another company for hundreds of millions of dollars just to get some GTA money? There is more to this purchase than GTA, and more importantly, the reason these self-interested board members did not want to sell is so they could line their own pockets with lucrative buy outs from EA and waiting until they could change their contracts for more money.

The reason why EA's offer is lower than this is the poison pill Take Two adopted, which devalues the company. The actual reason why the share price is up is because of the takeover offer. Take Two's management have consistently shown terrible business skills and management decisions, and the shareholders should be praying for EA to take over.

Catalyst

The moral of the story is that EA is going to be able to buy a lot of T2 stock, because a lot of people will look to capitalise on this situation and sell. We could see another EA-Ubi situation, where EA own a considerable portion of the company.

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nintend0nick

nonpareil

@cybereality: This deal isn't about Take-Two NEEDING EA, it's about Take-Two being a lucrative opportunity for EA.

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nonpareil

Fyren

EA price-per-share offer was not that higher that trading floor price-per-share, that caused Take-Two to immediate rise to the offer price and continue to raise to stay slightly above the EA offer.

The moment EA removes the offer the price goes down, I am not going to offer tips but this is a good time to sell, I doubt Take-Two stock will get this high any time soon.

Drakron

wheezo

turbofreak

That pretty much sums it up. I thought the same thing.

dead_red_eyes

Snuffbox

JorgieX

cybereality

Acute Gamer

EA tried to buyout TT before the launch so they could reap the rewards of GTAIV. That's the story. anyone that didn't think GTAIV was going to sell like beer at the super bowl, was just being delusional.

Striderhayasa - Phillyyakk on PSN and Live.

valarmorghulis

Ironically, that's exactly what I said when I read the article title.

Ignatius

Yup. If EA hadn't bid, the price wouldn't be where it is today.

OGHowie

With that, we get some great, good, and horrible movies and TV shows. Sometimes smaller studios maintain their independence, sometimes they don't.

I think in order for the gaming industry to mature, something similar has to happen. Look at how fast EA came to the defense of Mass Effect when the Fox lies were being told. I'd imagine that EA would do something similar when GTA comes under fire if they were owned by EA.

but then look at the sports division. 2K Sports consistently puts out better sports games than EA, and I am not so sure that 2K Sports would still exist if EA bought them.

So it's a lot to think about, and more to look at that some people's blind hate of EA.

TheAngryHeretic

There may be a slight uptick from casual investors who otherwise don't know anything about Take 2 and are just reading the papers now, but the big institutional investors bought in long ago. The stock market is always based on future earnings, it's always priced at least six months (and really usually years) ahead.

The only way the stock moves *significantly* higher than where it is now is if sales of GTAIV actually come in above the 9 million first-month sales that analysts are already expecting. That may happen, but it'd be a stretch to really bet on it. If sales figures do come out and show 11-12 million in sales in that first month, then you might see a little mini-run up that sticks.

But really, I wouldn't count on the stock going much above where it is now until we hear the first set of sales numbers, and even then only if they're higher than have already been predicted.

badasscat

ocalot

Caduceus

Give me a break! You didn't see it and not a lot of other people did either.

Article after article about how stupid Take two's decision was to turn down EA's offer, and a lot of posters agreed.

Diesel_Power

Phishedone

sam1r

If Take 2 continues to restructure effectively, these gains may be sustained. Since Zellnick has taken over, T2 has improved by leaps and bounds.

Snuffbox

Despite the fact how obvious my predictions may have been...

I guess all those early sellers of T2 stocks are kicking themselves in the balls for bailing out early.

Gummyworm

duckmouth

Hubert Humphrey Methadone

Hubert Humphrey Methadone

Alexander-The-Great

Zaxxon Q Blaque

Abdar