Enterbrain: Japan Console Market To Peak This Year - Kotaku Comments

Enterbrain: Japan Console Market To Peak This Year

Soldrak — Mon, 14 Apr 2008 20:42:14 MDT

@EmeraldDragon: The predictions have turned out correct though. The Japanese market is in decline compared to the American market. Just as one day, with the enormous earnings potential the Chinese market will eventually pose, the American market will begin to decline in prominence as well and perhaps as soon as 10 years from now, westerners will be playing the games the Chinese want.

Market dictates game design direction. This is why we are seeing more and more games targeted at Americans with ballooning budgets and fewer games for the Japanese market with shrinking budgets and profitability.

This can all be proven wrong if Final Fantasy XIII and MGS somehow manage to outsell COD 4 and Halo 3 worldwide but ** I just don't see this happening **

Soldrak

Enterbrain: Japan Console Market To Peak This Year

EmeraldDragon — Mon, 14 Apr 2008 18:56:05 MDT

They make perdictions like this every generation.

EmeraldDragon

Enterbrain: Japan Console Market To Peak This Year

Rockwallaby — Mon, 14 Apr 2008 18:26:03 MDT

so many analysts comment on kotaku

Rockwallaby

Enterbrain: Japan Console Market To Peak This Year

KrsJin — Mon, 14 Apr 2008 18:15:03 MDT

"Peak" must be the new trend word in game economy. All sorts of 'analysts' are throwing it out left and right lately lol.

KrsJin

Enterbrain: Japan Console Market To Peak This Year

Gwynna — Mon, 14 Apr 2008 17:22:30 MDT

Enterbrain may be trying to stir up some controversy with that article but it is certainly true that the market here in Japan has changed.
Looking at the way handhelds and casual gaming have taken over, Id say that FFXIII ISNT the insta-success everyone thinks its going to be. The audience has changed and its gone, for lack of a better term, softcore.
And as for the PS3 being a blu-ray player, hi-def formats are still practically unknown in Japan and discs sell at ridiculous rrps (average of 5000yen - or over TWICE that if you are after anything from Bandai). Also, with hi-def tv makers such as Samsung effectively barred from the market by government tariffs and regulations the cost of LCD/plasma tvs has not dropped the way they have in the West and therefore theres a much lower penetration rate.
The result? People cant utilise h-def content, dont see what the fuss is about and, quite rankly, dont care. If little Taro-kun can sit in his room with his DS and play networked with his friends in the park, mum and dad get to watch their nightly baseball and cooking shows on their old SD tv with no interruptions - its a win-win situation and the reason why next-gen consoles are not making many inroads here.

Gwynna

Enterbrain: Japan Console Market To Peak This Year

JimTheFly — Mon, 14 Apr 2008 16:50:42 MDT

@i_lie_to_fit_in: I have to agree here. I was going to bring that up, especially since I think the 360 sales have dropped for the last 4-5 weeks straight, even at the low levels they're at.

Am I missing something here? It will peak this year (2008) and drop about 5% by 2010, according to what I'm seeing. I don't know about you, but I look at that as plateauing than peaking. If it was predicted to drop to somewhere under 600 million yen, THEN I'd call it a peak.

A lot of people here are tossing out names of upcoming titles (FFXIII, White Knight Story, DQ9, etc.) that probably will not be released this year. I have to agree that the console sales will be significantly helped by major software sales. The whole Monster Rancher saga of the last 2 weeks is pointing this out right now over there. We'll see a surge when MGS4 comes out, and then the two big SE titles will probably out-do that, because Japan has always ADORED the major lines from SquareEnix. Hell, Famitsu itself illustrated that with their poll in 2006 of their readers' top 100 all-time favorites. 18 of the top 30 were SE titles, including 7 of the top 10.

Mix this in with the success of Blu-Ray over HD-DVD, and combine it with the constant low rumble of the PSThree rumor, and it's looking like the PS3 system will be peaking a little later than Enterbrain figures.

As for the Wii, I CAN see the sales slipping slightly, just because of the fact that more people will have the consoles and the market will be more driven by the software sales, and then you're talking about requiring 5-6 ADDITIONAL titles sold to make up for the price of one console. The market is just going to be too saturated with the Wii in the coming year for it to have a larger market footprint in 2009 than it will in 2008.

JimTheFly

Enterbrain: Japan Console Market To Peak This Year

KaneRobot — Mon, 14 Apr 2008 16:49:58 MDT

@mossberg: Yes the dog was named Punchy.

And he did have it in the movie, but that was the poster shot...and, heck, he may have it in his other arm. The dog was pretty small.

KaneRobot

Enterbrain: Japan Console Market To Peak This Year

Big World — Mon, 14 Apr 2008 16:08:00 MDT

While I would agree that the Wii sales might start to plateau, I think this year is going to be "kick-off" year of sorts for the PlayStation 3.

When you take into account the titles that are coming out in '09 (Final Fantasy XIII, Final Fantasy Versus XIII, God Of War 3, Gran Turismo 5, new Twisted Metal title, etc.), it's hard to believe that Sony's momentum will peter out in within 7-8 months.

Big World

Enterbrain: Japan Console Market To Peak This Year

Pezdispenser — Mon, 14 Apr 2008 16:06:57 MDT

I seem to recall an acquantance (sp?) of mine saying that, historically, all consoles peak during their second year. They can still continue to do well for the rest of their life span, but the glory days would be happening right now.

Pezdispenser

Enterbrain: Japan Console Market To Peak This Year

bobtheduck — Mon, 14 Apr 2008 16:00:44 MDT

PS3 isn't going to Peak BEFORE FFXIII, VS, White Knight Story (Japan is in love with Level 5, so don't count this one out), and the slimline PS3 come out. Trust.

bobtheduck

Enterbrain: Japan Console Market To Peak This Year

steliosco — Mon, 14 Apr 2008 15:54:24 MDT

what about the 360??
:)

steliosco

Enterbrain: Japan Console Market To Peak This Year

flash system — Mon, 14 Apr 2008 15:49:32 MDT

I doubt a console peak because online gaming in Japan is not as popular as it is in South Korea.
I'm basing my opinion from a book that touches on this subject.

flash system

Enterbrain: Japan Console Market To Peak This Year

Wolfers — Mon, 14 Apr 2008 15:33:54 MDT

Hmm, that depends. I'm hoping Nintendo will actually make some sequels this time around. I can handle more than one console-based Mario platformer more often than once every 5 years, honestly. As for the PS3, seeing how popular the PS2 was, I can't see it peaking already over there. Especially now that blu-ray came out as victor. Who knows! We'll see soon enough.

Wolfers

Enterbrain: Japan Console Market To Peak This Year

Striderhayasa - Phillyyakk on PSN and Live. — Mon, 14 Apr 2008 15:30:02 MDT

@scotty: DS ultra light with fat free styli.
-------------------------------------

I don't see it. More so for the PS3. FFXIII is going to be THE killer app for PS3 and DQ9 is going to major. Wii....well...what else is there for Wii thats coming and is A+?

Striderhayasa - Phillyyakk on PSN and Live.

Enterbrain: Japan Console Market To Peak This Year

mossberg — Mon, 14 Apr 2008 15:29:59 MDT

@NotoriousJnX: his dog was named punchy?

mossberg

Enterbrain: Japan Console Market To Peak This Year

i_lie_to_fit_in — Mon, 14 Apr 2008 15:27:28 MDT

'We can't quite tell if that means Enterbrain singled out those two consoles, or if the publication just offered examples for clarity.'

Perhaps it is because the 360 has almost no presence in Japan, leaving the wii and ps3 as the only 2 home consoles left to theorize about?

i_lie_to_fit_in

Enterbrain: Japan Console Market To Peak This Year

Kyle81 — Mon, 14 Apr 2008 14:56:19 MDT

@NotoriousJnX: The box art and promotional pieces erased the dog from that scene.

Kyle81

Enterbrain: Japan Console Market To Peak This Year

Velops — Mon, 14 Apr 2008 14:50:25 MDT

@TitillatedOcelot:
I was wondering when the DS Lite and Wii would be due for a price cut. It is unusual in this industry to maintain high demand over such a long time without any price cuts.

Velops

Enterbrain: Japan Console Market To Peak This Year

NotoriousJnX — Mon, 14 Apr 2008 14:43:23 MDT

Didn't Rocky have his dog Punchy with him up on those steps?

NotoriousJnX

Enterbrain: Japan Console Market To Peak This Year

jsf49 — Mon, 14 Apr 2008 14:43:18 MDT

I half agree and half disagree. Yeah, eventually everybody will already have a Wii and will no longer need to buy one, but I see the PS3 as a late bloomer which won't top off until after Final Fantasy XIII arrives, which is probably not until 2009. I'm not pulling this shit out of my ass. I'm basing it off what has happened with the PSP.

jsf49

Enterbrain: Japan Console Market To Peak This Year

JohnnytheFuture — Mon, 14 Apr 2008 14:41:40 MDT

@TitillatedOcelot: Price cuts would be awesome. I'm looking into purchasing a PS3, but not quite ready to make the $400 dollar plunge...

JohnnytheFuture

Enterbrain: Japan Console Market To Peak This Year

symphony_of_the_night — Mon, 14 Apr 2008 14:38:18 MDT

no ffXII this year...so i doubt it

symphony_of_the_night

Enterbrain: Japan Console Market To Peak This Year

scotty — Mon, 14 Apr 2008 14:36:35 MDT

@Nirolak: DS Lite lite

scotty

Enterbrain: Japan Console Market To Peak This Year

Nirolak — Mon, 14 Apr 2008 14:35:10 MDT

@Lixie: As in a new revision to the hardware or just an actual successor handheld? I think Nintendo said with the DS they wanted to keep it going for as long as humanly possible since it sells so well to such a broad market. (I think it was in a Kotaku post actually but I can't find it anymore).

Nirolak

Enterbrain: Japan Console Market To Peak This Year

liquidnumb — Mon, 14 Apr 2008 14:28:08 MDT

such as = generalization

liquidnumb

Enterbrain: Japan Console Market To Peak This Year

Lixie — Mon, 14 Apr 2008 14:27:20 MDT

Portable gaming has taken over the market in Japan. BTW, aren't we about due for a new DS by now? I guess Nintendo is waiting until DQ9 to launch the new model.

Lixie

Enterbrain: Japan Console Market To Peak This Year

Raziel Dune — Mon, 14 Apr 2008 14:24:54 MDT

peak? allready? why do i doubt this.

Raziel Dune

Enterbrain: Japan Console Market To Peak This Year

TitillatedOcelot — Mon, 14 Apr 2008 14:23:46 MDT

I'm smelling price cuts. Soonish.

TitillatedOcelot