maiky-nisute

TheGreySpectre

zerokoolpsx

Floppy, when I said people, I was talking more about companies like Netflix and Microsoft than most people in general. Most people in general still get the bulk of their media from local stores.

and your depictions of the Arcade and Theater industries are not valid comparisons I'm afraid. Arcades had trouble because they couldn't really compete visually with consoles and PC's, and movies just aren't produced and marketed in the same way that videogames are.

I might also note, that your declaration of inevitability is entirely unrealistic. Even Sony has said, "we expect 90% of sales to be downloads by 2018," that means they're planning on physical media sticking around. If there's a physical media alternative, and people are upset about DRM, then it's highly likely that there will be backlash against the digital distribution at one point.

That's even assuming it ever becomes practical. As I've said innumerable times before. We're running out of bandwidth.

Even if you have a hefty connection with no download cap, if the internet itself is low on bandwidth, a download will take forever.

WolvenOne

mrrobsa

- If people already complain about games that have a 20 minute PS3 install, how are you going to sell a game like Metal Gear. Even in 10 years that's not realistic.
- How do they expect the internet to survive something like the Halo 3 launch?
- Even if we would have enugh bandwith, who would pay for it? ISPs already complain about torrents.
- Some people might prefer a boxed game but I think they're the minority so that won't be a problem, just look at music.
- Like music however, I don't like to lose everything when my hard disc breaks. This would become a problem for many people, like is already the case with broken 350s.
- They have to consider that the value of games might become a lot less, like has happened with music. Distribution costs money right now but will still not be free in 10 years if it's downloaded. But since people don't get a physical product, can't take it to a friends house for a gamenight or resell the game it might be morth much less then it is now. This is just simple economics.
- Who will sell and market your console? Gamestop sure as hell won't after you destroyed their second hand business.

Only the future will tell what happens but like a lot of things that were predicted a decade ago only a few of the things predicted now will become reality. Maybe this will be one of them.

TrekVogel

This sounds like another reason it will happen - In ten years time these people will be their core demographic - the generation who want things on demand. Who grew up with the internet as commonplace and mobile phones everywhere. And the way they'll get what they want on demand is through downloads.

The amount of creative content coming out (from all areas) these days means games will become are more and more disposable. Look at film, about 15 years ago each release was a huge deal, staying on at the theatre for up to 12 months! Now look at it. We have 25 or more new movies a week! They truck them through, make their money and move on. Gaming isn't at this stage yet but Xbox Live gives some insight into what it might be like. And the Wii has proven that games with small development costs can still make enough money.

My point throughout this has been - it's not consumers who will decide, the pattern has been shown again and again. They will not bow to consumer demand, they're in a position of too much power right now. If we stop buying, they'll stop making. That's all.

There's no exact parallel out there but look at the arcade scene. It seems like consumers got bored and stopped going but in fact the decline of the arcades came about after the success of StreetFighter 2. Afterward the arcade operators started buying up cheap fighting game clones and then the customers got bored. So while it seems consumers stopped buying, in fact good games were being made but the operators looked for better profit. The end result was not a return to quality arcade games. It was the serious decline of the industry.

DLC could be the downfall of the video game industry. But that's not going to stop it happening if someone think money can be made. And if they can eliminate the second hand game market and implement DRM then that's a strong case for the accountants.

I absolutely hate DLC. I can't stand it. I think it would be the worst decision ever. But I don't think our opinion is enough to make them give us what we want. The way I see the future is this - It's either going to happen and we'll begrudgingly accept it (while the younger generation just consider it normal). - OR - They're going to give us what they want, we're going to reject it, they're going to go out of business and no one wins. It'll be the arcade scene all over again.

If a petition to stop Uwe Boll can't stop him directing, what chance do we have of stopping DLC?

floppylobster

JustOneFix

It's just not going to happen. What they're seeing now is that all the people who _want_ digital over physical are starting to make the conversion, but that won't keep going on forever. And no, it won't turn out like CDs vs. vinyl either. DRM isn't the problem, either. It's the simple fact that digital media is generally tied to specific systems (unless you're talking MP3, which is an outdated audio-only format).

Some of us like to have shelves full of media. We can peruse them at will. We can loan them out to friends. We can even RTFM! Oh, and you can't get any fancy pack-ins over the internet.

Purple Dave

TheTime

What about about gamers who (you might be surprised but I've met them) don't have an internet connection? Have Hi-Speed Ultra Lite? These people will not be able to get these games. Sure, 10 years is a long ways away but when you think about it, there's just something about feeling the product in your hand after money spent that doesn't add up to just entering a credit card and waiting for a download to finish.

Also, I guess people will no longer be able to lend games to their friends, or rent them to test them out, or keep their save data from system to system if the Hard Drive breaks.

kylo4

Better compression, look I'm sorry, but no matter how good the compression is, there is always a trade off in quality. Plus, some forms of media are much harder to compress than others.

Take for example, video. Computer Generated cut scenes are a staple of some genres, and they take up an immense amount of space the moment they make the jump into HD, and that's AFTER compression.

Basically, it comes down to this. The easiest way to save on space, is to cut things out. Either they'll cut things out, or they'll put up with large file sizes, simply because engineering new compression methods is an extra investment.

and once again, I must also reiterate that the demand for bandwidth is growing faster than telecommunications companies can scale it up. Many experts believe that by 2012 or so, many online services such as youtube will slow down to a crawl because of this.

The cause of this is pretty simple, it's abuse. People want to use the internet for text, audio, video, gaming, and they want it all on demand, in real time.

Consumers are essentially putting more stress on this one single data network than any other out there. Do you really expect it to be able to take that sort of abuse forever?

WolvenOne

RuneX

It may sound impossible now but when I was in high school a lady from Levis came in and told us 'flared jeans will be in fashion next year' (back then they hadn't been in fashion since the 70s). We all laughed. But the very next year, they were in fashion.

DLC is coming, it makes sense. Even from an environmental stand point (and they will no doubt take the chance to market it that way). I hate it too. But I've also hated memory cards, rechargeable batteries in controllers, DLC extra 'content', and games on CDs and I couldn't stop those.

floppylobster

This isn't gonna work. At all. Either these companies are just going to have to accept that people are limited to 2-3 purchases per month because of their caps or they aren't going to stop making physical media.

dowingba

It should be funny to see what 2018 looks like.

Sony: 90% of games are now being downloaded!

Public: Umm. No.

dowingba

And you can say "we can just stop buying" but that's not really how it works. If the games are good enough and it's the only way we can get them. We'll buy. We may not like it. But we'll buy.

floppylobster

adolfo-gomez

And no, "the grid," is not the answer. All the grid is, is a private Intranet owned by CERN. It's basically just a bunch of fiber-optic lines connecting research centers. It's fast, but we already have fiber optic lines all over the place for the regular internet.

Really speeding up the internet is going to require three things. It'll require us to rewire much of the ways in which data is handled to make it more efficient, would require us to connect to the internet using something roughly on par to a fiber optic connection, and we would need to lay down far more fiber optic lines than there are now.

Even then, there's a limit to how fast you can go. You know, the entire nothing moves faster than the speed of light, issue. Since fiber optics send data through pulses of light, we cannot go any faster than fiber optic speed.

We can however make the pipes fatter, so to speak. You know, stuff more light in each pipe.

WolvenOne

Yeah, that's the ticket.

2NinjasTapedTogether

mitch079

@WolvenOne: I agree with everything in your last post, nothing to add. :)

Ehardergardens

Soldrak

Still, the right to buy a game used off a friend, is something I would like to preserve.

....and yes, I realize the software isn't the same as Jeans. I also agree that the aforementioned companies have a right to put out some form of copy protection, so long as it does not interfere with functionality.

I do not however, see that as a right to ban ownership. When you own something, you can do anything you want with it except copy and redistribute those copies. Trading, selling, and borrowing are traditionally within your rights.

Besides, this makes me nervous, because it would theoretically drastically reduce my opportunities to find good gaming deals. I couldn't do things like compare prices at the various local stores and buy from where-ever is selling them the lowest, it's be, buy from the Sony/Microsoft store, or don't buy anywhere at all.

It's like, digitized price fixing. Bleagh.

WolvenOne

Neo-Senku

Ehardergardens

And to be clear, I'm not saying I'm completely in favor of digital distribution. Just trying to expand the discussion. I enjoy Steam for many reasons mentioned. I enjoy PSN and know others that enjoy XBLMarketplace.

There is definitely the motivation for companies like MS and Sony to 'lock you in' by essentially becoming the storehouse for your media collections. i.e. your libraries of games are through them and non transferable. Forced symbiotic relationship, ripe for abuse. Apple, MS , Sony, Nintendo, all want to be as involved in your lifestyle as possible, and their distribution will reflect that.

As for used games, I'll admit I like to support developers and try to buy new. Also, although legal, I'm not in favor of Gamestop and others making huge profits on distribution of my used games. I could sell them privately or through some cheaper avenue of course.

It's our willingness to take a lot less than market value for used games that GS benefits from. You pay for convenience.

Software isn't like a physical commodity. It's not the same as jeans, because I can't easily go home and replicate a set of a thousand jeans and give them to all my friends. Not saying people don't want to own their software copies and have freedom to do with them as they want, but it does get tricky.

Ehardergardens

DocBacca

you did point out that digital distribution should be less costly. However there are two issues with that statement I would like to bring up.

While I'm certain that, once set up, digital distribution costs less money to maintain. The cost of, "building," the infrastructure needed for this is, fairly considerable.

Granted, it's not the gaming companies building the infrastructure, but the cost of building that infrastructure will delay it in some places, and necessitate a physical presence for some time to come.

The second thing I feel inclined to point out, is the simple fact that digital being cheaper will not necessarily result in significant savings for the consumer.

If full games were going to cost $25, I might be more enthusiastic about the prospect. However, what I've seen so far is not very encouraging. With the middle men removed, games should cost significantly less, however, based on my knowledge of licensing and such, the profit margins for developers and publishers actually goes up significantly through digital distribution.

So I suspect, that if Sony or Microsoft started doing full game downloads tomorrow, they would still cost $60.

So we lose the ability to buy used, we lose the ability to trade, we lose the ability to freely move titles from machine to machine, and we get almost nothing in return.

This isn't exactly a fair trade off for consumers.

And yes I know property rights are, "abstract," however, if you went to your favorite clothing store at the mall and they told you that you could only, "rent," clothes from now on, I bet you'd be ticked.

Thankfully, I don't see the infrastructure being ready by 2018, and we're going to have time to hammer out these sorts of issues with the console companies.

I do however, worry, that there may not be an effective way of communicating these concerns to the console companies. I also worry that even if there is, there will not be enough people voicing them.

Still, here's hoping.

WolvenOne

Soldrak

WarlordPayne

I agree that the impetus of gamesystem end procedural content would probably be more for dev costs rather than distribution.
I did not mean using it to compress games at all. Just that a side benefit of this tech would be smaller packages.

I am curious about what areas in code you see matching art assets in size? Not doubting you, I just do not know. The non art assets will grow of course as AI and physics expand.

I see physical distribution being very expensive, and supply chains are a huge huge headache to set up and maintain (there are those making lots of money in these areas as well). Software is one of those things that can be digitally distributed, unlike food, or furniture. I'm not going to talk about quantum teleportation)

The abstracted idea of object and ownership and license and usage, are going to have to be decided. And this is where I think as a consumer it's going to cause the most pain. I think you're saying this too. As a consumer of course I'm concerned.

If a developer such as Valve or a console developer such as Sony controls the storefront and it was the ONLY storefront, and they didn't make huge sums of money from licensing meaning a vested interest in having people sell through their storefront, then there might be some issues.

Sony as example has real reasons to create firs party games, and those don't necessarily compete with third party games. I.e. Sony wants them both to do well. Both for their platform and for their licensing. I'm sure they will think about positioning games both in genre/content and release dates to maximize Sony's profits and market place.

Ehardergardens

RawSteelUT

RawSteelUT

Here's the thing- what will happen in 3-4 yrs when the Wii is aging rapidly?

I think Sony/Microsoft are going to do alright in the end. That said, I think the next-gen consoles are going to start at a lower price point then this gen did (inflation adjusted)

As for Steam, Stardock is starting up a competitor to Steam right now that has even less DRM (just DRM on install) Might want to take a look at Impulse.

arstal

Harteex

HayamaAkito

On otherh and I can probobly agree that by 2018 more games then now will be downloaded :P But then again, a cople of million of games being downloaded ( warez ) per day :p

MugiMugi

When it comes to Sony, Microsoft, etc, games are tied to accounts, and there's a level of restriction there that you wouldn't have if you actually had a physical copy of the game.

I mean, seriously.

How much are you willing to give up just for, "convenient access?" Or as some people might put it, instant gratification.

WolvenOne

eliter1

It's permanent or it's not there, and I don't pay retail purchase price to borrow. It's one thing to buy minigame fluff for a few bucks, but I'm not buying any real "full" games in downloaded straight-jacketed form. Hell, I'll even play MMOs, but I'm done paying for client software before I start playing a game that's worth 5 days of use.

Alternately, I can see something like the GamePark handhelds taking off bigtime if things get that restrictive. An open gaming platform with freely usable games. They'll never match the production costs, but you know what? I want gameplay, not money funneled into a mediocre game.

fuchikoma

And we're off: Twin Cities get first DOCSIS 3.0 deployment

"...which promises 50Mbps down / 5Mbps up. As expected, the carrier isn't being modest about the launch, claiming that users can suck down a 4GB HD movie "in about ten minutes...""

Unique Broadband Over Powerline Project Planned For Mosques

"...60 million very unique network users an unlimited high speed Internet connection of 224Mbps..."

Coming soon: superfast internet

"At speeds about 10,000 times faster than a typical broadband connection, "the grid" will be able to send the entire Rolling Stones back catalogue from Britain to Japan in less than two seconds."

flipmoejack

For all of you not convinced of the inevitability of technological progress:

And we're off: Twin Cities get first DOCSIS 3.0 deployment
[www.engadget.com]

"...which promises 50Mbps down / 5Mbps up. As expected, the carrier isn't being modest about the launch, claiming that users can suck down a 4GB HD movie "in about ten minutes...""

Unique Broadband Over Powerline Project Planned For Mosques
[tech.slashdot.org]

"...60 million very unique network users an unlimited high speed Internet connection of 224Mbps..."

Coming soon: superfast internet
[www.timesonline.co.uk]

"At speeds about 10,000 times faster than a typical broadband connection, "the grid" will be able to send the entire Rolling Stones back catalogue from Britain to Japan in less than two seconds."

flipmoejack

And we're off: Twin Cities get first DOCSIS 3.0 deployment
[www.engadget.com]

"...which promises 50Mbps down / 5Mbps up. As expected, the carrier isn't being modest about the launch, claiming that users can suck down a 4GB HD movie "in about ten minutes...""

Unique Broadband Over Powerline Project Planned For Mosques
[tech.slashdot.org]

"...60 million very unique network users an unlimited high speed Internet connection of 224Mbps..."

Coming soon: superfast internet
[www.timesonline.co.uk]

"At speeds about 10,000 times faster than a typical broadband connection, "the grid" will be able to send the entire Rolling Stones back catalogue from Britain to Japan in less than two seconds."

flipmoejack

And we're off: Twin Cities get first DOCSIS 3.0 deployment
[www.engadget.com]

"...which promises 50Mbps down / 5Mbps up. As expected, the carrier isn't being modest about the launch, claiming that users can suck down a 4GB HD movie "in about ten minutes...""

Unique Broadband Over Powerline Project Planned For Mosques
[tech.slashdot.org]

"...60 million very unique network users an unlimited high speed Internet connection of 224Mbps..."

Coming soon: superfast internet
[www.timesonline.co.uk]

"At speeds about 10,000 times faster than a typical broadband connection, "the grid" will be able to send the entire Rolling Stones back catalogue from Britain to Japan in less than two seconds."

flipmoejack

Sentouki

[news.bbc.co.uk]

If they're arguing over relatively small, low resolution movie files, I don't see it being easy to convince them to pony up for the resources needed to deliver blu ray, or even DVD sized games...

Northernsky

残心

Ewe. No thanks, I'd prefer to have my physical copy without having to worry about horrible DRM bullsh*t.
-----------------

Me too. Physical disks for me forever. At least for consoles. On the PC we have Stream and that is the h-bomb.

Blah-Blah-Blah

Also if gamestop wanted to stay in business I say the best idea would be to offer a store where you could purchase these digital downloads from stations around the store. You'd either purchase a usb drive or hard drive from them, then plug it in to some sort of kiosk and pay for the digital download. It would work for those that want to pay in ways other then using a credit card or for those that have a slow internet connection. Also these kiosks could possibly contain demos of every single game that can be purchased.

Not sure if it would work, but I would like that since I usually like to pay for things with cash over credit.

Fusionboxer

However, with services like Steam, I don't mind it.

I remember the first time I used Steam, back in Half Life 2 came out on launch day. HATED it at first, then grew to like it.

Currently, I have over 20 games in my Steam account, many of which I've purchased through Steam. It's safe and secure, and the games are linked to my account. So whenever I do a fresh install of Windows, which is often, I'm able to DL steam, and DL the games I want to play on my hard drive. Don't have to worry about finding game cases and keys that can be missed placed over years.

I see Consoles heading this way too. People download a games from the PSN and it's working great so far, as with XBL.

As more and more generations of consoles are released, the bigger the hard drives in them will get. I don't think 90% of game sale will be downloaded for PC/consoles in ten years, because you'd have to have terrabytes of hard drive space for that to happen, BUT, I do see it becoming more and more widely spread and used, and we'll ultimately get to that point.

TheOtis

Twisk

The sort of, dynamic compression you're talking about, sounds somewhat unlikely. I'm assuming you're talking about Procedural Generation, which indeed can make games much smaller. However procedural generation that's THAT dynamic and THAT effective is more than a little ways off, and within the next ten year's we're more likely to use it to slightly off-set development costs than we are to compress games.

Also there are other factors out there pushing game sizes up, and they may counter any effect procedural generation has in the short term.

As for places like Alaska. While it is a very viable market, digital infrastructure there lags about ten to fifteen years behind places like LA, and simply, "improving," it isn't an easy task.

The real beauty of the physical distribution, is that it works almost anywhere, in any country, so long as they have roads and a stable environment. That's why video games are sold in so many places, *not,* just Japan America and Europe. Countries and regions that are developing can have games distributed through them in the same manner, *and through the same chains,* as clothes, food, and tools.

The beauty of digital distribution is that it cannot be re-sold, shared, nor are there any middlemen.

These benefits larger favor the publishers and hardware developers. The hardware developers doubly so, because they end up controlling the storefront, and make games on top of that.

Think of it this way. Say Sony makes a first party game, Party Smasher X, which is a pretty standard 3rd person shooter, well say another smaller developer makes a similar game at around the same time that has much better reviews?

Well, since the hardware developer controls the store front, they can push their own game and, hide the third party game, putting it where people are less likely to see it.

Lets also remember that we would lose the ability to trade, share, or buy pre-used titles. Everything would be tied to the hardware and would essentially be immobile.

So really, while digital distribution might seem, "neat," and "high tech," it's actually a step backwards as far as consumers are concerned.

You could probably, "make," it work well for consumers. However, as of now I don't see companies heading in that direction. So I would rather stick with a proven, well established distribution model that puts lots of freedom in the hands of consumers, over a new iffy distribution model that threatens to take freedom away.

WolvenOne

I second this. I want the ACTUAL game in my hand, along with the case and instruction manual.

I also would rather not have to swap hard drives for every game I play.

Figroti

Desertwolf

Volomon

@WolvenOne: I think if there's a potential market viability they will make the efforts to reach these areas and make sure the bandwidth can support the size of the distribution packages. Who knows really. There's a lot of factors involved. By that time games could be relatively small 'seed' packages that grow games within a DirectX-like engine that procedurally 'grows' a game experience tailored to a local gamer profile. Art assets and sound are the largest parts of games and those would be generated dynamically from this 'seed' by your gpu/cpu, whathave you.

And I could be missing your point, but if conditions are difficult to set up 'connectivity', whatever that is in 10 years, either for climate or economic, those wouldn't be a big part of the market anyway? Remote harsh condition workers kept opiated by video games maybe? Come to the Off world colonies for adventure and fun (gamestation 2018 not included)

Ehardergardens

Also there are just certain games I wouldnt want to buy DD. Fighting games and party games (such as Mario Kart) are better on a disc that I can take to a friend's house. If I want an FPS chances are I will download it to my drive.

I have Steam for all my PC games that are available on it. When my internet connection goes out I cannot play any of them. I can still play a console game in that case. What happens in the future when all my games are DD?

I just wont be able to play games until the connection is restablished...it sometimes goes out for 24hours. Or in this future of superfast downloads do hardware failures at ISPs no longer happen.

JustinS

wicko

Those were just examples, even in the lower 48, there are large chunks of area where the infrastructure is just too poor to distribute large games in this manner.

This limitation however, does not have to, "limit innovation," however.

The simple solution, is to support both business models until the infrastructure can support digital distribution everywhere.

Even then you may want to keep selling a limited number of hard copies for collectors. Though by then a premium could theoretically be put on hard copies.

WolvenOne

Overlord44

超外人

skink

Blah-Blah-Blah

thats assuming we make it past Dec. 21st, 2012. lol.

atrimus

But no, I am not confused as to the real size of video games. I know that certain changes had to be made with the way blu ray discs are read and the way the PS3 processes information.

But are you honestly attempting to tell me that developers say "oh extra space, lets just toss a bunch of unused garbage on the disc so the pirates won't rip it".. I'm sorry but that I am having a hard time believing this to be the truth. Realistically, I would at best see it as "We have a lot of empty space... Oh well, ship it as is".. Or they fill the space with behind the scenes and concept art as is quickly becoming the norm for PS3 games. Games are continuing to increase in size and I am sure that by 2018, they will be double the size they are at the moment.

I am not speaking in terms of any specific game. But if you want to be given example of games that are pushing disc space limits, just look for Metal Gear Solid 4 and Hideo Kojima's words on disc size. Not every game is as you say it is. The same goes with information =(

Dennen

Derigor

As far as digital distrobution goes today, both systems support changable hard drives. Sure you get screwed on price for upgrading your 360 hard drive, but 60 bucks for a 250 gig for my ps3 isnt too bad. I'm pretty sure 60 bucks for a terrabyte drive wont be too unreasonable soon anyways. Just hope they update firmware to support drives that big and you should be alright.

course in 10 years who knows whats going to be packed into these system, but I am sure in 10 years Comcast will still be screwing us on internet speeds anyways.

Derigor

teamr

Amorbis

bangbangblah mentioned that not even music has a rate as high as 90%. Seriously think about that. Bandwith and storage are not an issue at all for mp3s. MS and Sony could actually FORCE the change onto us, but would they? Retail reaches out to a broader audience and i doubt they would want to give up those extra sales just in the name of progress.

DD will eventually be mainstream but the need for physical media will never vanish. (unless theres something like 100GB/S wireless connection available globally)

TheHun

teamr

Also, I don't think you can lump Canada in with Alaska and Greenland

teamr

Sam_Lowry

Not to mention, stores still provide advertisement for games, if you can no longer walk into a store and buy a game, wouldn't that only the game industry? Wouldn't pirating be on the increase?

Walker

I'm sure that if Sony/Nintendo/MS/Whoever decided to make console with DD being the primary way of distributing games, they wouldn't be stupid to give you a HDD that can hold 2 or 3 games only :P

CockroachMan

cduran02

the original publisher makes zero dollars when your real live media resells again and again...

yes buying any software is just a license to use it, but physical media can be transferred over and over again at great convenience to the consumer and great monetary aggravation to the publishers.. so they believe..

will not want. ever..

railskins

While it's easy to dismiss people who are limited by the bandwidth of their living environment, it's important to remember that there are quite a lot of them, world wide I would say there are at least tens of millions of people who are simply stuck with little bandwidth, or worse yet, with no internet connection at all.

Believe it or not, that demographic does actually make up a fairly large part of the video gaming market. In northern territories such as Alaska, Canada, Greenland, and so on and so forth, the percentage of the population that are active users of computers and game consoles are much much higher than in places like the United States, this is in spite of the fact that bandwidth is poor in these areas.

This is because of the long, harsh winters. The same rough conditions that make building a proper infrastructure difficult, give people a lot of incentive to find ways to entertain themselves indoors.

Okay, I'm rambling now, er....

Well to sum things up, the core problem is that you cannot place too much emphasis on digital distribution, without potentially locking out portions of the audience.

The video game industry is obsessed with the concept of digital downloads because they see it as a way to stem used game sales. However I suspect if the push it too hard they'll shoot themselves in the foot by alienating a significant portion of the market.

WolvenOne

It makes it that much easier.

Sylent

Hickeroar

DigiMish

The game doesn't take up nearly as much space as is offered. No game does. They simply fill the space with useless garbage to stop pirates...

teamr

[www.cnn.com]
Japan launched a rocket Saturday carrying a satellite that will test new technology that promises to deliver "super high-speed Internet" service to homes and businesses around the world. The Associated Press said the satellite would offer speeds of up to 1.2 gigabytes per second.

and "The Grid" Being spear headed by your very own government:
[www.wired.com]

So the only realistic way to look at technology and the internet is that it's growing and changing FAST. And it looks as though the trend will only continue.

teamr

DocBacca

Shifty203

But how much do you think it would cost with the newest Processor, Graphics Processors, Large HDD's and all the special little features that are all the rage with this newest wave of consoles? That's not going to be cheap. Nor do I believe that games in the year 2018 would be a mere 40gb in size. They will increase with processing allowing greater textures and various other nifty little memory eating bits of visual goodness.

I have downloaded a game via steam or another pc service. I guess you didn't get that from my previous post - but alas, if you didn't catch it - that's a shame and i'm not going to explain it again.

Dennen

Bleentastic sees bandwagon and jumps

The original Xbox had an 8gb hard drive in it. The 360 had a 20gb, and they sell an 120gb for an OUTRAGEOUS 180 bucks. They seem to have this extremely premium price on hard drives that can be put into PC's for next to nothing. Is a 20gb Hard Drive in a $400 system today really all that much different from a terabyte Hard Drive in a system 10 years from now? And like I said I really don't even think a terabyte is enough.

mva5580

[news.bbc.co.uk]

1981suede

Benjo

Also, if you've never downloaded a game via steam or another PC service, let me fill you in: You can back up your games onto external media! Crazy idea, huh? Creating your own physical media. And on top of that, get this: You can ALWAYS download the games again! Any time, any place, any way you want. Once you buy a game on steam, you can download it unlimited times for an unlimited time period. I'm pretty sure that in 10 years, consoles will be seeing much of the same features.

teamr

The 2 variables you really have to consider here is Hard Drive space and internet bandwith.

If game developers are making games by that time that are what, 50+ GB in size, which I think is totally realistic, then you're talking about needing to ship systems with a terabyte of storage, without a doubt. And most likely even more than that because people are NOT going to go for having to delete games from their hard drive because it's full. They damn well better give people too much rather than not enough. Because that will be a big problem.

And then obviously the bandwith thing. If you're talking about downloading a 50gb game, that's a pretty big inconvenience to a generation of people that are just used to putting it in the drive and playing. Broadband in this country is crap, as it is many other countries. And by that I mean just regular net surfing, it's fine. But when you're talking downloading MASSIVELY sized games/videos/etc, the market needs to be improved. Big time.

And then there's the separate issue of not being able to bring a game over to your friend's house anymore. People won't like that too much either.

While I like my physical copies of games, I'm ok with digital distribution. But I'm only ok with it if these issues aboved are addressed in a way that doesn't say to people "F You, this is the way it is."

mva5580

Which in my own humorous head, I visualize you as some power hungry dictator screaming opression due to your beliefs on a big screen in the community square. I find it quite hilarious, but I digress.

I am not trying to "fight progression" they can progress all they want. All I am doing is looking at things realistically. The world I feel is slowing down in terms of technological advancements. Too many laws in place to prohibit the development of new technologies. I feel that the net would need a severe upgrade in terms of user connections and server processing before this sort of thing is possible and capable of handling millions of people suddenly connecting all at once to download games in excess of 50gb in less than an 12 hour or so window. Sure they could do as some others, and likely will, have the console download the game before release, then unlock it on the second of that day of release.

But just looking at things realistically, there are a great deal of people out there who do enjoy a physical media. The primary thing I don't like about some downloading services out there is that I am not downloading to own. I am downloading to authorize. If I change computers, there are some services out there that will prohibit or at least make it frustrating for me to get that game moved from one computer to another.

Speaking in the ways of authorization, I hope that by 2018 that authorization will be done in a different way. The last thing we need is to hear a similar story of a fellows console breaking down, getting sent to the manufacturer, the manufacturer sending it back repaired, but wiped clean... Say hello to weeks of rebuilding what was once on the console... This can also happen with hard drive failures as well.

Dennen

Like I said though... I dread when games come to this.

Eclectified

VicViper

stickfodder

ara

Digital Distribution is the future, and I personally think it's better..

CockroachMan

JoDark117

That is not convenient. Having to go out there and buy a mod as well as a terrabyte HDD to install on the consoles just so I can download games of such an enormous size is not convenient. That's expensive. Sometimes convenience is expensive, but i'd rather buy 15 games rather than 0 games just so I can buy them later.

Dennen

I look forward to consoles having an equivelent to steam, as long as the service is fully sustainable.

chunks4123

Myxomatosis

nxp3

If 90% of games are downloaded who will sell your systems? Retailers make money off games not systems. Why would they sell the systems if there is no chance for profit?

Im all for downloaded games as much as the next guy but issues with DRM and logistics just keep it from being a major option at the moment. Of course in 10 years that could change but I doubt it.

parad0x360

To all the people who don't think current broadband is good enough: Where was the internet in 1998? A 10mb cable line was unheard of back then, and now it's standard (and even slow in parts of europe)

Look at the music industry if you need a blueprint as to how this transition will go. Itunes is now the largest music retailer in the united states. Companies like Gamestop will have to evolve or become the new Walmart of the gaming world (ie. not first place)

When's the last time you've seen a CD player?

teamr

Digital copies are crap.

Give me my boxed products please.

Tons Of Fun

boopadoo

Microsoft is still clearly ahead when it comes to digital distribution. Look at XBL's huge selection of movies and television shows, as well as the XBLA games.

Zeliard

I don't pay for all of them.. but that's another story..

Ironically, downloadable games on systems like Steam and WiiWare are harder to pirate and in most cases if you're able to do it, the pirate version lacks a lot of features..

CockroachMan

Modus_Operandi

MisterSleep

GreenCard200

Though I'm not entirely sure what you mean by "some of the bigger games on PSN". There are quite a few excellent games on XBLA (such as the recently release Ikaruga), and both XBL and PSN have a similar selection of full, downloadable, quality games.

Zeliard

Take for example many MMO's out there that can barely handle a few million people connecting at one sending and receiving relatively small packets.

When the gaming industry is having a release day for any big named game, it will take people over a day to download the entire game. Especially if it's a relatively large one.

This might also create a bad habit in the ways of console gaming. For small games it is fine. Anything over 4gb I would say is pushing that limit. I would prefer that my games are stored on a form of physical media rather than downloaded.

If games are roughly the increasing size they already are by 2018, we will need to purchase larger built in HDD's for those consoles, meaning the price not only in the processing and graphical technologies would increase - but the required prices for storage would also increase. This would result in consoles costing far more than what the PS3 release did, and I do not believe that will be very acceptable no matter what the year is.. So smaller, XBLA or PSN games are understood.. Anything that size to higher than a 5gb range I feel would still primarily be released in the way of physical media. Be it a smaller sized media like a return to a cartidge style system or sticking to discs.

Dennen

Derigor

I see a few key problems with this theory...

1- gamestop and other retailers aren't going to like this, and they're going to fight to make sure it doesn't happen

2- ISP's like qwest and comcast aren't going to like the amount of bandwidth this is going to consume, which means they'll likely start charging by the megabyte to curb the trend.

3- it's expensive to host the content... though likely not nearly as expensive as the cut retailers currently get.

4- the cost of HDD space for storing the content could pose a serious issue

5- and last but certainly not least, increasing game data size. they've been growing exponentially for decades... if this trend continues, it's going to complicate 1-4 incredibly... If games keep growing, all the issues associated with transitioning to DD compound...

i_lie_to_fit_in

and sony makes steps to that direction in realistic terms not like microsoft thet claims bluray is gonna die soon because of digital downloads :|
The usa infrastructure can't handle all this bandwith now,not to mention worldwide.
But in 20 years is a safe prediction

steliosco

Agreed. I like having some physical item in my posession. Unless there's also a simplified plan for reselling materials once I no longer wish to use them.

As 360 (and to a lesser extent PSN and Wii) suggest...once you buy that content it's there. The only way to "sell" it is to sell the entire system along with it.

TRT-X