Nobody wagers on the weather besides farmers.

Brackynews

yango546

I've seen some pretty good comments here at Kotatku. I bet theres a couple of guys/girls here that could become an analyst. And probably have better accuracy too.

AsWater

fuchikoma

evilfremen

somethingwikked

For example if you look through these boards you'll literally find somebody who thinks Microsoft is going to launch a new optical-disc format especially for porn. However crazy it is, somebody will say it. Sometimes the crazy thing turns out to be true (massive Wii success), sometimes it doesn't. I'd guess Microsoft PornoDisc is probably in the latter category but I'm not sure really... somebody ask Pachter what he thinks.

quen

I dunno about the rest of you, but pinpointing sales numbers for the quarter or figuring out when a game's release date is and how that affects the company's stock, *and* putting millions of dollars plus your own reputation on the line is a few tiers removed from the typical ex post facto "I -knew- it!" post on some forum.

As a matter of fact, I suspect that since there are so many predictions made by "us gamers", when one of them actually does come true we chalk it up as another accurate forecast by the "gamer community", and not that by playing games we're somehow better at figuring out company finances.

Datheron

A most interesting fact about the top quoted analyst of this industry is that he happens to likely have the worst track record of advising on stocks - stocks which, for the most part have outperformed the S&P. I recently tracked upgrades and downgrades of 26 stocks that he has covered since 2001. On ATVI, he managed to downgrade it to "Hold" at the ultimate low price of $3.18 (this was when my eyebrow was first raised about Mr. Pachter's credibility, despite the tidal wave of media quotes) and he waited until it was nearly FIVE TIMES more expensive to upgrade it to "Strong Buy." But that was one of his better covered stocks. He told people to "Buy" Atari at $30 and only brought it down to a "Hold" at $7 (which is now $3). He advised people to "Buy" MWY at $12 and downgraded to "Hold" at $3. He recommended investors buy COOL at $12 with a $16 target and it dropped to $1 before he finally downgraded. With PETS and STMP he recommended "Buy" for stocks that fell 50% before he dropped coverage. With ELBO he downgraded to "Hold" before the company was bought out. With VANS he recommended "Sell" before the company was bought out. He recommended AKLMQ at $4 before downgrading it when it had already fallen to pennies. Out of 26 stocks he has covered, I only found 8 that would have been profitable advice and found 18 with either even or just devastating results.

But a better example that sums up Mr. Pachter's attitude and persona was in April of 2005 where he called NFLX at $11 "a worthless piece of crap" and recommended MOVI at $28 and BBI at $10, putting the latter on his rare "focus list" (which has also underperformed as a group). He put a $3 target on NFLX with $13 for BBI and $35 for MOVI. Today, NFLX is at $26, nearly nine times more than the "worthless piece of crap's" target price; BBI is $5, 60% less than his target; and MOVI is at 20 cents a share, a 99% drop, all in just a little over 2 years.

NetStockAnalyst

djcoffee

Game consoles - especially the latest ones - require you to invest large amounts of money. Sales figures give you a good indication of which console will give you the best return on your investment: which machine will attract the most developers? Which machine will last the longest? Which one will you be able to talk to your friends about and share games with?

For instance, a look at the Dreamcast's sales figures post-PS2 launch would have been enough to steer many in another direction - it was obvious Sega weren't going to turn the tide.

The other important part is that no one wants to be the idiot that dropped hundreds of bucks on a 3D0 and is forever mocked by their peers.

The problem with all this is that people fight over stupid shit like who's "winning" the sales war when they should be arguing about the damn games. The market is big enough nowadays to have several "winners", so the arguments get ever-more circular and ever-more pointless.

freakout

What's always been fascinating to me, though, is gamer culture's fascination with analysts and sales data.

jayscott

patricioalba2

@Wyld: ahaha

justhesh

ooojunkieooo

It's not pretty, and is usually tainted by the retarded fanboy bias that is engendered by spending hundreds of dollars on a piece of electronics and then needing to justify said expense to others who made a different (and "obviously" wrong) choice.

Not that the analysts aren't talking out of their ass 50% of the time; it's just that most gamers seem to be doing it 90% of the time...

freakout

The ones who don´t do shit think they are doing something good. while analysts and reviwers are complaining about everthing, developers are working their asses.

Yeah I remember how important analysts and reviweres were back when mona lisa was made and Kurt cobain shot himself.

Now Heath Ledger is dead and I shall thank the analysts for a good movie, and not him.

O_o

Wyld

Like when I toss a coin.

Cool.

Wyld

That's the proper way to pronounce 'em, I say!

ABigSmall

A Halo game will be made.

Justhesh: 100% accuracy

justhesh

Lstormy10

Lstormy10

Dcbronco

Chewbenator

ordan

*click on Nintendo article*
Hmmm... so Nintendo is the most out of touch with it's user base! Okay...
*click on Sony related article*
Hmmm... so Sony is the most out of touch with it's user base! Hmm...
*click on Microsoft related article*
Hmmm... so Microsoft is the most out of touch with it's user base! Excellent, I now have all the info I need to invest my kids' college funds!

Ampillion, Dayman. Fighter of the Nightman.

I sugest that everyone reads a book called "The Black Swan" by Nassim Nicholas Taleb...it gives a great mind opener for all of us raised in a culture obsessed with certainty and the ilusion of predictions.

pfm

Moonshadow101

ThisCharmingMan

lol jk, that's fine with me, I actually like Pachter.

Covert_Knight

kiseki

Ruisu

This way, we can make money off these sods and calm my bare contained rage of how these monkeys get paid ridiculously high salaries.

must.....remind.....calm.....

*shudder in angry*

Onizuka-GTO

Shouldn't that say that one out of eight of his provable predictions were right, and he wouldn't be able to score higher than three? The chart says he had seven incorrect, not seven total.

Interesting article, though. It is very rare to find information about whether these guys' predictions held up.

MechaTama31

Mire

Makes so much sense. You can understand both the connection and the disconnect between the money and the pure gaming side.

Gilgamesh

and stock options.

JudgeNutmeg

Wernious

Agnostic

MXs219

nuEros

Flawless101

"I didn't understand this until after I was able to use the controller. But there is a very simple kind of happiness that comes with using it-I can't describe it any more basically than that. And every kid is going to understand that right away.

I said last week that I believed the price point would be $249, but incredibly, that may have been too high. There is widespread speculation this week that the Wii will actually come out at $199.

How many will they sell? Every single one they can make. If they make five million for a worldwide launch, they'll sell five million. If they make ten million, they'll sell ten million. There is an inexhaustible demand for a $199 console with a completely unique method of control."

Nice call. Can the analysts say the same?

ssendam

wage

AndrewMP

catapult37

Tei

BTW, all these guys are less acuurate then most normal gamers, seems like it to me anyway.

Irenicus-the one and only

Arnold Rimmer's Garden Strimmer

On that end, if all it takes is being a good guesser, a love of video games, and an MBA, then call me an analyst in training. Just need to work on that MBA. Two and a half years I think I'll have mine.

Setzer IIDX

Gutek

Part-Time-Viking

coconutdelight

yjaved1

TOCATL

Nice feature Tori.

pj898

I agree though with Chu Boi, good piece. I just wish that the analysts were a little more specific so we could have more predictions by which to judge them and thereby roast the ones who are so obviously spouting off without knowing what they are talking about.

Seanchaen

mariogalaxyman

Tenth

Pezdispenser

FightingChance

D3Anon

BenKenobi88

Woo, score one right guess for me!

Dajmin

CHU BOI