I say that they're just coming up with the most ludicrous profit goal they can think of just to call it a failure. What the hell's the difference in turning a large profit in one day as opposed to a few days or a week?

The game's gonna sell well, regardless of wether you people are satisfied with the first day sales or not. You'd have to seriously lack "common sense" to think it wouldn't.

Enigma_20XX

runandgun

=)

Detha

Common Sense:

There's probably some commonly accepted equation to determine how well a game will do overall based on it's first day/week sales much like movies (ticket sales halve every weekend after opening).

They've probably determined that based on the rate of decline post-launch, 1M launch sales are needed to turn a good profit.

O-Z

And if it DOESN'T sell one million in 1 day, then what? Why is it that this game HAS to sell ONE MILLION COPIES in one day in order to be considered a success?

And I'm gonna say it again, with so many claiming that it would sell a lot more on multiple platforms, look at all the 360 exclusives you have and then say that. While it may well be true, I don't see you giving any of those up, now do I?

Enigma_20XX

As far as I've seen, nearly every exclusive for each system that is a 3rd party game has had an unwritten asterisk next to the "exclusive" translating to "for now." Months ago, when DMC4 went multi-plat, Capcom was very clear in saying that, no, there was not a chance for reciprocity with it's two Xbox 360 exclusives, Dead Rising and Lost Planet.

Clearly, Lost Planet didn't quite make the bucks that Capcom expected it to, and what do you know? It's coming to the PS3 now.

For the record... I own a PS3. I plan on only owning a PS3. What Dille is saying is true: as long as the other side(s) don't have 3rd party exclusives [and quality is equal]... the gamers lose nothing.

I mean... I played Assassin's Creed. My friend with a 360 bought it, and we compared notes. We both had some glitch issues, and aside from achievements, it was exactly the same kind of experience. We both liked the game. Did I enjoy it less because he had it? Did he enjoy it less because I had it? No to both.

My point with Final Fantasy wasn't that it ISN'T going to be a multi-plat release, but let's be honest... right now it's an exclusive, but that COULD change because SE is a third party developer, and if they have to recoup their loss, or just make more money, they probably will try to in 6 months to a year. If that happens (if) with either MGS4 or Final Fantasy... where's the loss for the PS3 owners? Did a bunch of Xbox 360 owners suddenly find themselves unable to play Oblivion when the PS3 owners got it? What am I missing?

Hell, even a Sony property "exclusive" like the "New Goblin" stuff for Spiderman 3 ended up on Live as DLC.

All any of this does is put increased emphasis on the quality of first and second party developers, and perhaps that's as it should be. I didn't buy a PS2 to play Metal Gear Solid; I did buy it to play Gran Turismo. Of the games I currently play on the PS3, most are first and second party games because they're of the higher quality than the third party games, even when they're equal in quality across platforms.

In short... I bought a PS3 not for the third party exclusives but for the first and second party games that are definitely exclusive and will remain so... Any one who says that they'll only buy a system for a 3rd party exclusive is just setting themselves up for disappointment.

Evil J

Zzhboy

Sugaray

The only console that should have exclusives is the Wii, and that's only so that Wii owners don't end up with dodgy 'now with added waggle' ports.

Wilfmadbloke

kirstpo

moclippa

tehFluffz

I'd say that smashing a million on day one would actually be possible if the game weren't an exclusive.

Frank

nxp3

Perhaps I won't even buy it, I'm not really sure if I'll get a PS3 or a 360 this year. It's a tough choice: a console with no games or a console that works for a few weeks? Thanks God I have the Wii...

Flanker

LOLZ. Load of bull.

Mact

Can we add this to the list of dumb executive quotes?

How in the world does he plan on justifying that? Exclusive games mean that fewer gamers can play without shoving out more cash. It also means that your publisher is screwed.

Mact

In case you missed it earlier:

On the PS2, MGS3 has sold 3.6 million copies worldwide, and MGS2 has sold 7 million copies worldwide to date.

So while it's possible, is it likely that it will happen? :(

"Looking at the Wii" meaning you don't own one and don't play games on it to really know what's good and not?

Oh and funny thing, your baseless opinion of their games doesn't seem to matter to the people who make the system money; you know, the consumers.

NeoAkira

rojo

Selling 1million in a day seems possible, considering may like me whom does not own a ps3 but willing to wait until games like MGS or FF to come out.

Looking at the Wii, its sucks no good game on it.

zutto

And everyone asking "where's all the hype?". It'll come, we're still many months away from release.

champ24 vamp_24(psn)

I think the PS3 will sell 2.5 - 3 million this holiday worldwide, and I know that seems high, but with the new price point and ad campaign in America, it's possible. So by that you have 9 - 9.5 million consoles. Great. Along with 6 months later, after the release of games like LittleBigPlanet, there will be even higher sales. So we're looking at at least 11 million consoles by the time it launches. This game has enormous hype along with being in a known series. If you add to the fact that it's a worldwide release, it's highly possible it could achieve 1 million day one.

Kevin_the_Sony_Fan

Y3KMAN

For smaller devs, like Bungie, Naughty Dog, Insomniac, etc., it makes sense to develop an engine along the lifetime of a single system that won't stretch them thin and result in bad ports.

I think you'll find that, aside from Nintendo off in their own little world, third party exclusivity is going to come to something of a demise, at least for big companies. The smaller guys, the 'second party' devs will probably stick to what they know best, but don't expect SquareEnix, Konami, Activision, Rockstar, etc, to put all their eggs in one basket anymore.

topcatticus

Millz

blackadvent

snakebite

Whose the "dumbass" now?

beem

DevonTheDude

Highlander Wolf

DevonTheDude

Aex

MGS4 multiplayer looks very very similar. I just hope it doesn't turn into a FPS gunfest - it's supposed to be a stealth game, even in multiplayer.

Highlander Wolf

MGS franchise = gamers

EndersGame

ianken

j13

Halo 3 also had the advantages of:

* Being on a system with a much higher user base/attach rate
* Having an extremely dedicated and loyal fanbase among the console owners. Halo 2 still has possibly one of the strongest online communities to date.
* A marketing campaign that had everything short of celestial advertising. Had there been a star above the site of Bungie studios on the release day, Halo 3 might have been literally bigger than Jesus.

Where the hell is the marketing campaign for MGS4? Where's the hype? Where is there any indication that the mass market has any interest in the series at all?

MGS is an incredibly niche game that hasn't really sold much more than 20-25 million units total in all its formats on every system it's been on. No way in hell it's going to break the million mark on day one.

Burguois

Yes it is possible, but two reasons why it won't happen like the way Halo 3 sold on the 360.

360 had a larger consumer base.

360 was made to play halo and was bought to play halo. The PS3 was made and bought for other reasons than MGS4

NeoAkira

Vots

You might want to consider sending your resume out to the marketing departments as well as the distribution departments of Microsoft and Sony. They'll pay you millions.

EndersGame

It's hard work keeping that number accurate.

EndersGame

I have a feeling thats what stunted sales of R&C and Uncharted, R&C lost its multiplayer and Uncharted didn't have any. What companies should realize right now is that gamers need a great deal of replay value for the amount of money they are going to throw down for a game.

MGS is a great game but a ton of people complain about how confusing the story is, however if a good multiplayer game was thrown in, then most people would finish the game and just go online the whole time to have fun.

Anyway I digress, 1 Million in 1 day is easy to do if you are counting on worldwide sales. All they have to do is talk about some of the features and actually release more information about the online multiplayer "starter" that is included in this game.

I really can't begin to stress how important multiplayer has become this generation.

Black Arts Viper

If I'm right MGS4 is set for world wide release.

Sailorcancer

silentbobfan

"(With a plus/minus margin of error of about ONE MILLION percent)"

ROFL ^_^

Highlander Wolf

At least there will always be Nintendo, forever and ever, amen.

talisein

Great question. I've been sitting on that number for the last few months.

It's about 17.46708% (With a plus/minus margin of error of about ONE MILLION percent)

You asked for a number that no one has and never will.

EndersGame

Saleen

trogdor111

I was under the impression that people bought x360s for Halo, and that people bought PS3's for FF/MGS, but also for a blu-ray player. Does anyone have numbers on what % of PS3 owners aren't hardcore gamers since they only care about movies?

Reiichi

for 1 million copies of mgs4 to sell, it needs the same exact attach rate as halo3. (1 million for an install base of 5.6 million units)

anyone seen the barrage of mgs4 ads? the mgs4 flavored mountain dew? anything? does mainstream america even know it exists? does mainstream america even know what a ps3 is? did you know that grand total, the entire mgs franchise has only 20 million units sold? as in, for all time. for ALL of the mgs games. total. ps2, psp, everything.

1 million units on day one? not. gonna. happen.

m3mnoch.

m3mnoch

Yeah, kinda wondering that myself. I mean, no doubt this game will turn a profit - it's Metal Gear. So what's with the one-mil imperative on the first day?

beware_of_moose

robinandtami

/Except for the Wii, I don't think Nintendo planned for the ongoing demand they're experiencing. Then again, the market supply is way too low to accurately show the curve associated with sales.

crapsh00t

LUCYMONO

Then all they have to do is sit back and wait to see who parks the most dump trucks full of money out in front of Konami HQ.

I can't even speculate on the money that would be involved, nor which of the two; Sony or Microsoft would be willing to spend it.

EndersGame

hansamurai

Baukie

No doubt it will sell a million but in one day...it's madness.

EndersGame

R3load

Highlander Wolf

ara

/rant

astrobop

If he meant 1 million in the first week, they would have said that. Either way, I don't see this game making its money back (unless they charge a higher MSRP)

Callidux

The average consumer simply isn't aware of the MGS franchise.

Gamers care about the MGS franchise and no one else.

EndersGame

People who still believe MGS4 will stay PS3-exclusive (like me, for now) have either gone ahead and bought their PS3s or are waiting for the release day to do so (like me).

XBox owners already have a great deal invested in their system and games, and are unlikely to throw down mad cash for a PS3 just to play one game. Konami knows this, and realizes they might be missing a huge market.

That being said. It's really friggin' hard to port a title from one system to the other, especially when the game was designed around the Cell Processor. The architecture is very different. But, I'm sure there's a Plan B in place, ready to go if people don't buy the PS3.

If I were Konami, I'd wait to see how many PS3s were being played after the two big PS3 exclusives are released (FFXIII and MGS4). Those two games alone will sell consoles. If things looked down after that, then I'd approve the "Plan-B-360-port". The port would take a long time, and cost a good amount of cash, maybe 6 months to a year after the decision were made, and who knows how much cash...

Highlander Wolf

Dragon_Warrior

Mrmoo2002

jerimas

EndersGame

19nazzy

ONE MILLION SALES IN ONE DAY...

Just take a moment to think before you actually support such ridiculous claims.

EndersGame

AnonymousNoob

the first will be to play wile the other will be a collectible since it is the last Metal Gear Solid game.

I don't know if i;ll buy both on the same day that wold be $108+tax but I will buy 1 copy in launch day

Ruisu

Ryan Payton is just being (understandably) neurotic.

jerimas

Even if those extras are such a big deal to you.. haven't you ever heard of trade-ins or anything?
Whats a couple bucks more 6 months to a year down the line?

Bastard11

Spiffyness

Murrytmds

A better way to spin this might be, 'Did XBOX 360 actually gain anything qua gaming by landing DMC?' A systemic problem is one thing, but if it's specifically "something like" DMC, that's different.

Eieio

Vidril

Seriously though.. MGS wouldn't sell as well as some expect on the 360.. very different gamer base.
MGS is for the old school.. 360 is full of the new school kids. You know.. where "games should be short and easy" and "Metal Gear's characters are too silly for me to enjoy the game" come from.

Bastard11

~

Hiroken

Let's say, for arguments sake, that Konami sells 1.2 million copies into the stores initially. Konami then doesn't get to sell any more to the stores until they start running out of stock.

The longer it takes for a title to sell thru its initial shipment, the less reorders the store will make. If 1 million doesn't sell in the first week, many stores will not reorder because they have plenty on hand. As the title gets older, the chances of it being reordered drops like a rock.

If Konami makes too many games, they start to lose money in storing them. Product sitting in warehouses cost game companies tons of money, so TIME DOES MATTER.

Not being able to see the numbers makes this a hard estimate to confirm, and even then, I'd question a producer's real ability to get this right. Producers only know what it takes to recoup development costs. There are many more millions spent on operations, marketing, and promotion which a producer never sees.

Bonkerjerks

Foglight55

jacksons98

There were around 7M PS3s sold by retailers before November sales. It's not going to be a problem for MGS4 to sale 1M in the first week after holiday sales are done.

Just look at sales for something like Monster Hunter just in Japan. That sold 1.1M+ the first week for a portable that didn't have a huge install base at the time. Worldwide release on MGS4 -- it doesn't have to, but it'll sell 1M+ the first week. This means they'll be in the green after the first 1M sales. That's what the point of that quote was -- they need to sale 1M to break even due to production costs. If they want to break a profit on day 1 they need 1M sales on day 1. They'll sell 2M+ easy in the first 6 months, so I won't be crying for Konami at all. :3

Mongoosekun

"We're telling our fans that if you want to play 'Metal Gear Solid 4', you have to buy a PS3," said Ryan Payton, the assistant producer of the game."

Honestly I don't think the 360 has the kind of userbase to support an MGS game. Not that I want to indulge in a broad generalization against an entire community of people but perhaps MGS is a little too... how do we say... sophisticated? For the average 360 user that is. Who I picture as a 13 year old punk who, when not gay-bashing over live, certainly isn't getting himself up-to-date on the literary techniques of post-modern narrative which are perhaps necessary to engage with an MGS script on a decent level.

Elitism is fun. :)

GregoriusH

superbabyproject

bOOmStiCK83

For reference, Gears of War, the first real must have game for the 360, did about 600k in its first week with nearly the same number of 360's in the wild as there will be PS3's at the time of the MGS4's release. The only thing different at this point in their lifecycles is the parity per region.

Poorly written article just trying to pop a few views with a factually inaccurate headline on display here.

BBQmyNUTZ

Unastheslayer-PSN

gstatty

speaking of exclusives, shouldn't GTA be PS3 excluxive? i mean it's always been a PS game then it got ported to xbox.

sorry if i offended you, i know how you people get...

Akmed

daeeatsall

JorgieX

And why are people all knocking games that released in the last few weeks as not selling as well as expected? (mass effect /drakes ? ) I don't know of any "new hyped" titles dropping before xmas, so its probably safe to assume these games will be bought as xmas gifts between now and the 25th .. right?

maxx1223

retronaut

flukielukie

Mongoosekun

pikachumariachi

metallicorphan

OmegaKulu

Buttah

You know, I personally have really enjoyed the series. I think it gets a bad rap, to be honest. But it is only fair to recognize that this is not a franchise that has its best selling days ahead of it. Interest has waned from the gaming mainstream.

That being said, its very optimistic (and borderline unrealistic) to think that this will sell 1 million WW on day one. Its a popular gaming series, but its not a cultural phenomenon. And based on the production schedule and reports about production, I think its safe to assume that this will be among the most expensive games of this gen (closer to $50 mil than not).

DARTH_TIGRIS

Last time I checked Sony made sure to get exclusives on UT3 (at least for this year) and HAZE. Exclusives are never bad, especially if you can get them to remain exclusive for a period of a year or longer. Multiple platform games can no longer afford to delay a single sku just to wait for a universal release.

Hiero Glyph

Unastheslayer-PSN

"We're telling our fans that if you want to play 'Metal Gear Solid 4', you have to buy a PS3."

"The PlayStation brand has always been good to us, and we're pretty bullish on the PS3." - Ryan Payton

I know that can easily change, but if it is a worldwide release, I'm hopeful it'll sell a million in a week.

Saint Anima

superbeast1370

Games like Halo, COD4 since they are multiplayer, people keep the game to play online.

smallwang

Not always, obviously there have been exceptions, but why is it that Highly hyped titles are hyped so high? Partially because of the marketing dollars behind the title, but also because (I believe) the audience can discern the value inherent in a quality product, despite all the PR speak flying around.

Unfortunately for Sony exclusive developers, the other important part of the equation is install base.

metal_dawn

if its a game just about sneaking up to people and punching them in the balls, that would be the best game on the PS3 EVAR. :D

yes. been watching too much south park.

D:

Onizuka-GTO

Amazing-Steve

Deltakiral

Like posted before, The article is saying that they need to sale 1 Mil Day 1 to consider this to be a successful investment. Over $30 million in development cost is a tall order for something.

Consider a movie that has a $30 Million budget that releases and in the first week only makes back 12 Million. Although in the long run, it will turn a profit but its considered a "failure" because it didn't preform as expected.

3xch4ng3

TheBoxNinja

Kenzya

Tull

Kayin

Kayin

-Jeff
[alinktothefuture.com]

leshrac55

8, according to wikipedia.

The 360 did sell more in a year than the ps3 and did so with a great many people waiting for the ps3. Not to mention supply problems and a 'lack of games'.

Marasai

ara

Does that mean that Guns is coming to the 360? No, but if Konami posts a loss in their fiscal year due to disappointing software sales (because everybody is buying Halo 3 and Rock Band), they may change their mind after the game is released on the PS3.

Phoenicks

So yah ^ There is the motivation for my naysaying. But I DO believe what I say and feel that they are rational points of view.

unlike DarthPoontang I like to quantify what I say. (my new favorite whipping boy).

metal_dawn

But if there is no such thing is exclusives, then it's time to merge the console makers together--what's the point of multiple consoles without exclusives?

That said I have little doubt Mario and Link are staying right with Nintendo...

SSJPabs

While the gaming industry isnt going to die.. and mainstream casualness is beneficial in many ways.. i cant help but not like it all the time.

asphix20

Right now, developers (and by developers, I mean the guys in charge of the $$$) are switch their focus from lengthy high dollar games, to mediocre, small/medium budget casual games.

They've seen the Wii is successful as much as the 360/PS3's and theres just as much, or more, profit in low-end casual gaming.

I see games like Bioshock, Gears of War, Mass Effect, etc becoming few and far between because of the risk-factor of multi-million dollar development.

So, lets see MGS4 rock right out of the gate and sell some PS3's. I love my 360, but I want to see this game be successful.

3xch4ng3

Yeah Unless Kotaku knows about a MGS2 port on the ps3.

Ergophobia

Tepoz

:P just messin' with ya

TitillatedOcelot

1.) Releasing MGS 4 Online will not cost them too much more and will be sell very well

2.) Konami has re-released MGS games in the past with a little more content. I see the same happening here.

3.) If say a year later it comes to the 360 it won't really matter to PS3 owners or their sales as much so they can do that then. If it boils down to it.

vizion

metal_dawn

Shhh! Don't tell them that! If they know that, then there is no hope for MGS4 on the 360!

TheMysteriousStranger

homernoy

The Vampire Raziel

j13

robinhood1013

Jmontilla2786

metal_dawn

robinhood1013

Even so...lets put another high profile game ( which is a sequel) R&C:TOD. it just hit 200,000.......the game has been out for 5 weeks...and the series has been million + sellers.

Jmontilla2786

Here's what happens:

One group of gamers pick up the gauntlet and decide they want this game to be a success. They're of the same community mindset that like to 'make it happen' by getting behind a game and dashing out and buying it. Like what happened with Oblivion and with Bioshock (yes fanbots, I know what console those are synonymous with).

The other group are going to say "Nah. Ain't gonna happen" but can't actually influence things one way or another. Odds are they probably don't have the hardware and weren't going to buy the game so, short of boycotting sales, their apathy won't change anything.

Statements like these are designed to motivate the fans. They aren't necessarily a do-or-die case of reality.

Bumpmap

Jun581 won't give you tree fiddy!!

darthpoontang

@Ignatius: It's somewhere north of 6 million sold now and by the time MGS4 comes out it'll likely be closer to 10 million. Since MGS4 will have a worldwide, simultaneous launch, it could very well sell a million copies on the first day.

@0ldb0y: It's hard to call it that when it'll recoup all costs and make a profit on the PS3. It wouldn't surprise me to see MGS4 on another platform at a later date... but it's going to be a good long while if it happens.

Deviation59

Don't listen to Evil J about FFXIII. Both FFXIII and Versus has been verified as being exclusives to the PS3. Here are some articles from PS3 fanboy:

[www.ps3fanboy.com]

[www.ps3fanboy.com]

RTYPE1124

lets just say the number one game of last week was Wii Sports (ouch)

Jmontilla2786

Wolf_Dog

decoy-b

Now Disgaea 3? Easily. Maybe two million, maybe more than Halo even.

kingclip

[ps3.ign.com]

Doesn't close the book on the main title moving to other platforms, but from this, I'm fairly confident that the main game will be platform exclusive for at least a year or two, which is enough. Even if it has a PC version, that's not much to worry about, given the same situation existed for FFVII.

Kotaku - The Happy Clique for Hypocrites!

Phazon

Kj719

ara

future quotation if they do:

"we didn´t wanted it anyways, it´s not for our kind of consumers."

Wyld

OT79