Analyst Says GTA IV First Week Sales Could Reach 9.5 Mil - Kotaku Comments

Analyst Says GTA IV First Week Sales Could Reach 9.5 Mil

Hammertime — Wed, 10 Oct 2007 15:48:34 MDT

it could happen. Remember both Halo 2 and GTA san andreas were released on fall of 2004. halo 2 sold like 8 Million copies and San Andreas sold like 16 Million on the PS2 alone.

Hammertime

Analyst Says GTA IV First Week Sales Could Reach 9.5 Mil

D00mM4r1n3 — Wed, 10 Oct 2007 15:19:41 MDT

I didn't bother with the first 2(or the top-down original 2), jumped into it with San Andreas on the Xbox and loved it. Already pre-ordered IV and paid in full for the 360.

Just think: all those little kids that made the first 2 games sell so well on the PS2, are now old enough to actually buy the game themselves!

D00mM4r1n3

Analyst Says GTA IV First Week Sales Could Reach 9.5 Mil

fulgore66 — Wed, 10 Oct 2007 07:44:16 MDT

I kind of agree with the people that think GTA may have lost its steam. I had less and less fun with each incarnation. It was to the point that I didn't even get 100% in SA (which I did in all the others). And I didn't even finish LSS.

The game is getting stale. It's always the same "drive here, shoot some guys, drive there without blowing up your car, shoot some guys". All the while fighting bizarre glitches. There were missions in SA that had you driving from city to city for what seemed like forever. It wasn't fun, it was tedious.

I'm glad to hear they are moving away from the fitness aspect of SA, but I'm sure that they will still have TONS of boring as hell side quests where you ride your bicycle around in circles...Hooray...

GTA3 is still one of my favorite games of all time though. At least it wasn't flooded with crap to the point that it took 100+ hours to get 100%.

fulgore66

Analyst Says GTA IV First Week Sales Could Reach 9.5 Mil

L_K_M — Wed, 10 Oct 2007 06:23:17 MDT

I'd be surprised if it sold that much in a year, given the sales numbers of the PS3 and the 360.

Furthermore, the game does not seem to be shaping up too nicely. What we've seen in movies, the graphics look somewhat... bad for a current-gen game, and the framerate seems to be below what is needed. I think R* overestimated their own capabilities when they went from using a third-party engine to creating their own.
In other words, I'll wait for the reviews. The game will definitely sell a lot of copies regardless of what the reviews say, but it's just not going to sell 10 million copies.

L_K_M

Analyst Says GTA IV First Week Sales Could Reach 9.5 Mil

Kum0 — Wed, 10 Oct 2007 03:10:51 MDT

9.5 millions thats like saying almost 80% of all Next Gen owners will have it.

Possible?
I would say nearer 85% - 90%!

I mean who doesn't own a GTA?

Kum0

Analyst Says GTA IV First Week Sales Could Reach 9.5 Mil

Hypnotoad222 — Wed, 10 Oct 2007 02:39:03 MDT

If only I could buy 9.5 million copies of GTA4 to prove you all wrong...

Hypnotoad222

Analyst Says GTA IV First Week Sales Could Reach 9.5 Mil

KamatariSeta — Wed, 10 Oct 2007 01:08:05 MDT

People may have been very fond of GTA circa 04-05, with Vice City and San Andreas, but is the passion still there? Does the GTA fanbase have as much drive as the Halo fanbase? And is it nearly as big as the Halo fanbase? I'm not so sure.

KamatariSeta

Analyst Says GTA IV First Week Sales Could Reach 9.5 Mil

ibelli — Wed, 10 Oct 2007 01:04:26 MDT

$10 says it does close to the estimate.

ibelli

Analyst Says GTA IV First Week Sales Could Reach 9.5 Mil

BrainofJTD — Wed, 10 Oct 2007 00:47:07 MDT

I doubt these numbers, and I doubt the game's value. But Ill still be getting it on 360, le sigh.

BrainofJTD

Analyst Says GTA IV First Week Sales Could Reach 9.5 Mil

flukielukie — Wed, 10 Oct 2007 00:27:45 MDT

I honestly need to see more of this game. If its exactly the same as all the other GTA's I doubt people will want to buy it on the first week. I would rather save my money for other things

flukielukie

Analyst Says GTA IV First Week Sales Could Reach 9.5 Mil

SpuddOner — Tue, 09 Oct 2007 23:31:32 MDT

Nah, I dont see those #'s happening unless there's over 40 million PS3's and 360's combined. People already bought the 360 for Halo, and people will buy PS3's for Metal Gear, not GTA since it's going to be on both consoles. and you are not going to get people off Madden, MLB, NCAA, Halo3, and Gears from x-box Live to run around and highjack cars.. 360 players already did that with that one game, wait?! 2 games already.

SpuddOner

Analyst Says GTA IV First Week Sales Could Reach 9.5 Mil

Kaneda — Tue, 09 Oct 2007 22:30:22 MDT

@KamatariSeta: I don't know about that. I believe many people bought PS2s just to play the GTA games that were on it, especially in America.

Kaneda

Analyst Says GTA IV First Week Sales Could Reach 9.5 Mil

KamatariSeta — Tue, 09 Oct 2007 22:25:42 MDT

While it may be on two systems, I don't know that the install base of the PS3 is enough to make it as big as this guy thinks. Even if the install base of the PS3 was equal to the 360, I think those numbers are pretty high.

And of course, that's assuming that most everyone with a PS3 and a 360 buy GTA 4, which I don't expect to happen. GTA fans may be devoted, but I don't think its near the level of slavish devotion as Halo. Most Halo fans would buy a 360 just for Halo 3. Would GTA fans be devoted enough to GTA to buy a console just for GTA4?

You don't get quite the same level of devotion from GTa fans as you do from Halo fans.

KamatariSeta

Analyst Says GTA IV First Week Sales Could Reach 9.5 Mil

hageshiku — Tue, 09 Oct 2007 21:41:41 MDT

as other posters have already mentioned, it should easily surpass halo3 considering its on more than one platform. 9.5m is not unreasonable.

hageshiku

Analyst Says GTA IV First Week Sales Could Reach 9.5 Mil

b-osiris — Tue, 09 Oct 2007 21:39:32 MDT

I believe this game will be a total flop.
*Yes I believe.

b-osiris

Analyst Says GTA IV First Week Sales Could Reach 9.5 Mil

evilkoala — Tue, 09 Oct 2007 21:31:29 MDT

if pachter doesn't say it i don't believe it :P

evilkoala

Analyst Says GTA IV First Week Sales Could Reach 9.5 Mil

ChymChymX — Tue, 09 Oct 2007 21:26:33 MDT

5 mil, 7 mil, 10 mil... either way my TTWO shares are sleeping easy, awaiting their shower of gold. Whether you like GTA or not, might as well make some money off of the phenomenon.

ChymChymX

Analyst Says GTA IV First Week Sales Could Reach 9.5 Mil

Kaneda — Tue, 09 Oct 2007 21:23:00 MDT

I'm don't know much about those GTA games... I thought it was coming out on xbox first. Is it gonna be a simultaneous release? And when was it delayed to?

Kaneda

Analyst Says GTA IV First Week Sales Could Reach 9.5 Mil

Tyrannical — Tue, 09 Oct 2007 21:18:08 MDT

9.5 million is way too high. There just aren't enough 360s/PS3s out there to warrant those high sales.

Tyrannical

Analyst Says GTA IV First Week Sales Could Reach 9.5 Mil

ChaosKnight — Tue, 09 Oct 2007 20:52:27 MDT

Hmm, some how I really can't see that. Although I can see it passing Halo 3 because... well multiple systems, but nearly 10 mill first week? I dunnoooo.

ChaosKnight

Analyst Says GTA IV First Week Sales Could Reach 9.5 Mil

slapme7times77 — Tue, 09 Oct 2007 20:47:07 MDT

gta 4 might just totally bomb.

from what i've heard, the behind closed doors e3 2007 showing completely sucked.

slapme7times77

Analyst Says GTA IV First Week Sales Could Reach 9.5 Mil

OmegaKulu — Tue, 09 Oct 2007 20:41:38 MDT

Some how i think that 9.5mil will happen to "UR MR GAY" by this year end... GTAIV? maybe not so much, it will sell good, for it's GTA... but that good? i don't know.

OmegaKulu

Analyst Says GTA IV First Week Sales Could Reach 9.5 Mil

Hoxie — Tue, 09 Oct 2007 20:40:39 MDT

@Mr. Fap☆Fap!:
I respectfully disagree. I still go back and play San Andreas even though I got 100% a while back. It's something in the atmosphere of the game. It just sucks you in. And belive me, they've gotten better and better. Never have I cared so much about a storyline than in San Andreas. III was ok, VC was pretty good, but SA was amazing. I really cared what happened. If anything, IV will be even better.

Hoxie

Analyst Says GTA IV First Week Sales Could Reach 9.5 Mil

The-Simpsons-Rule!! — Tue, 09 Oct 2007 20:20:15 MDT

@KeyonSumner: "its as iconic as runing prostitutes over"
roflmao!!!!! XD

The-Simpsons-Rule!!

Analyst Says GTA IV First Week Sales Could Reach 9.5 Mil

MR. FAP☆FAP! — Tue, 09 Oct 2007 20:17:40 MDT

I actually have a feeling that GTA VI is going to be something of a disappointment, relatively speaking. I don't think it'll flop, just that people are going to say the series appears to be running out of steam, you could say.
I have no hard evidence to base that on. Just anecdotal things. People I talk to and such, mentioning the game doesn't really get much of a reaction beyond, "cool"; I also don't see the mainstream media hype being there as much, if at all, this time. GTA games are "old news" now. Not to mention the (relatively) high price of entry for a lot of casual/Madden gamers, who are mostly the ones who bought those games, on the 360 and PS3.

Basically, it'll easily blow past the 1 million sold mark but be the lowest selling game in the series (excluding the PSP version), despite it being cross platform.
Also, barring the ad campaign showing or making clear it's the 360 version, I wouldn't be at all surprised to see the PS3 version sell about as well- if not better than- the 360 version.

MR. FAP☆FAP!

Analyst Says GTA IV First Week Sales Could Reach 9.5 Mil

Runna — Tue, 09 Oct 2007 20:15:47 MDT

The whole GTA thing is wearing thin unless they have some thing new! I mean a prettier sand box is not going to do it and those mission better be more than button mini games cuz every one is mini game out it seems... or is a HD mini game ok? I'm not sure... guess we will see..

Runna

Analyst Says GTA IV First Week Sales Could Reach 9.5 Mil

Fuzzba11 — Tue, 09 Oct 2007 20:15:25 MDT

I'd like to see the bonus checks that arrive in the mailboxes of those developers...initial reaction says 8.1 million is a lot to sell in just one week, but since they're pushing close to Christmas it just might be possible. GTA does shovel out a lot of marketing, TV, web, and IRL; if they bloat up the hype and get good reviews before the game hits shelves, 8 million doesn't seem unachievable.

Fuzzba11

Analyst Says GTA IV First Week Sales Could Reach 9.5 Mil

Zetah — Tue, 09 Oct 2007 20:10:07 MDT

Guys please, never use this leaked screenshot in any GTA4 main article again. It's just not right.

Zetah

Analyst Says GTA IV First Week Sales Could Reach 9.5 Mil

roger9614462 — Tue, 09 Oct 2007 20:03:45 MDT

Yeah!

Errr... I mean no.

roger9614462

Analyst Says GTA IV First Week Sales Could Reach 9.5 Mil

titiklabingapat — Tue, 09 Oct 2007 19:57:01 MDT

There's not that many consoles, PS3 and 360 combined to reach that number.

Bullshit.

titiklabingapat

Analyst Says GTA IV First Week Sales Could Reach 9.5 Mil

FrigidAir44 — Tue, 09 Oct 2007 19:56:42 MDT

@alaren: "Third, the GTA3 trilogy sold on the consoles when there were tens of millions of PS2's in the wild; between PS3's and XBox360's there are only 15 million households even able to play the game."

Too right sir. I for one could care less about GTA... and I won't be buying it. Most of the typical GTA players aren't even nexgen owners I'd believe, they are still playing Madden on their PS2.

FrigidAir44

Analyst Says GTA IV First Week Sales Could Reach 9.5 Mil

hoorayforcorn — Tue, 09 Oct 2007 19:53:54 MDT

Ack, sorry for the double post.

hoorayforcorn

Analyst Says GTA IV First Week Sales Could Reach 9.5 Mil

slacker164 — Tue, 09 Oct 2007 19:53:54 MDT

There's no way. Not even close. GTA is biggest in the US and the current combined install base of the 360 and PS3 in North America is right around 9.5 million. While that number will grow quite a bit by time GTA4 comes out, and the game will still sell well in other areas, it's still like predicting a 70% attach rate in the first week. First month, maybe, but still really, really pushing it. Lifetime, no problem.

slacker164

Analyst Says GTA IV First Week Sales Could Reach 9.5 Mil

hoorayforcorn — Tue, 09 Oct 2007 19:53:39 MDT

I don't agree. Even when the game was slated to come out in October, we didn't have near the amount of reservations at my store for GTA as we did for Halo. That could be due to the fact that Rockstar knew they weren't going to make the date and held back their marketing campaign, but I still don't see five hundred people showing up for the launch like they did for Halo 3.

hoorayforcorn

Analyst Says GTA IV First Week Sales Could Reach 9.5 Mil

hoorayforcorn — Tue, 09 Oct 2007 19:50:04 MDT

I don't agree. It will do really well, and it will probably come close because it's on two platforms (one of which is the PS3, and let's be honest, there just aren't that many of them out there), but judging by the way reservations are going at my store compared to Halo 3, I don't think it's going to be as big. Even when it was slated to come out in October there wasn't that much of a desire for it.

That may have to do with the fact that Rockstar knew it wasn't going to make it on time and held back their marketing campaign, but I still don't see five hundred people showing up for the launch like they did for Halo 3.

hoorayforcorn

Analyst Says GTA IV First Week Sales Could Reach 9.5 Mil

alaren — Tue, 09 Oct 2007 19:49:19 MDT

This is completely stupid. Vice city outsold San Andreas on the PS2 13 million to 12 million over the game's entire life, including bargain copies. Everyone expected Liberty City Stories to move PSPs, instead it was Crisis Core.

I loved the GTA3 trilogy, but 10 million in its first week? Bollocks. First off, this series has always been better on the PC where it is moddable. Second, as popular as it is, a lot of parents don't mind little Jimmy playing Halo 3, but thanks to Hot Coffee they'll think twice about getting GTA IV. Third, the GTA3 trilogy sold on the consoles when there were tens of millions of PS2's in the wild; between PS3's and XBox360's there are only 15 million households even able to play the game.

Who pays these analysts, and why aren't they paying Kotaku readers instead? Apparently geeks, gamers, and 14-year-old high school dropouts are better able to predict the gaming market than highly paid analysts. But then again, sometimes I think a monkey with a dartboard could make better predictions than these hacks.

alaren

Analyst Says GTA IV First Week Sales Could Reach 9.5 Mil

RomeoPapaDelta — Tue, 09 Oct 2007 19:48:21 MDT

I still haven't bought halo 3. I will be calling in sick the day this game comes out.

It's effin Grand Theft Auto!!@!!!@##

RomeoPapaDelta

Analyst Says GTA IV First Week Sales Could Reach 9.5 Mil

Detha — Tue, 09 Oct 2007 19:46:37 MDT

@Detha: Oh, well, oh. I was hopin' I wasn't smarter than everyone else here. $170 million on its first day in regards to Halo.

Yeah, I'd say it's pretty possible to make more money than Halo on its opening week, but I still doubt it.

Detha

Analyst Says GTA IV First Week Sales Could Reach 9.5 Mil

KeyonSumner — Tue, 09 Oct 2007 19:46:21 MDT

I thought the local kotaku venacular was "fuckton"? Or is that just in monetary instances?

KeyonSumner

Analyst Says GTA IV First Week Sales Could Reach 9.5 Mil

TheDollHouse — Tue, 09 Oct 2007 19:45:21 MDT

@Indy_aka_Rex: You must remember my dear sir is that the traditional "claw-hands" are a staple of the post Grand Theft Auto 3 Series. It's as iconic as running over prostitutes.

On Topic- It it be nice if GTAIV made that much sales. In my deepest of hearts do I believe that?...no, not really. I think this prediction is pushing just a little.

TheDollHouse

Analyst Says GTA IV First Week Sales Could Reach 9.5 Mil

KeyonSumner — Tue, 09 Oct 2007 19:43:48 MDT

I thought the local kotaku venacular was "fuckton"?

KeyonSumner

Analyst Says GTA IV First Week Sales Could Reach 9.5 Mil

Detha — Tue, 09 Oct 2007 19:41:25 MDT

@Ollivander: First week, man.

So, I mean, it's not like it would beat Halo or anything. 300 million in a day? No way. But, it'll definitely sell more in the long run.

Detha

Analyst Says GTA IV First Week Sales Could Reach 9.5 Mil

mentalboy11 — Tue, 09 Oct 2007 19:40:41 MDT

@Bleentastic:

maybe download wise, lol.

mentalboy11

Analyst Says GTA IV First Week Sales Could Reach 9.5 Mil

Noks415 — Tue, 09 Oct 2007 19:27:51 MDT

That number doesnt seem all that ludicrous when you think about. I would say that GTA's popuarity is on par with Halo 3. It is being released on two platforms so it could happen.

Noks415

Analyst Says GTA IV First Week Sales Could Reach 9.5 Mil

Pound my tom-tom — Tue, 09 Oct 2007 19:23:04 MDT

@mentalboy11: i wouldn't believe those numbers if it was coming out on the PC atleast not selling wise

Pound my tom-tom

Analyst Says GTA IV First Week Sales Could Reach 9.5 Mil

Ollivander — Tue, 09 Oct 2007 19:19:55 MDT

9.5 Mil? In one day? No chance in hell

Ollivander

Analyst Says GTA IV First Week Sales Could Reach 9.5 Mil

weak_pig — Tue, 09 Oct 2007 19:19:54 MDT

"a SHITTON of money" - why can't i make a SHIT TON OF CASH instead of just SHIT?

Spread some $$ love over here

weak_pig

Analyst Says GTA IV First Week Sales Could Reach 9.5 Mil

vizion — Tue, 09 Oct 2007 19:19:26 MDT

@mystic54:

That's what I was thinking.

vizion

Analyst Says GTA IV First Week Sales Could Reach 9.5 Mil

Indy_aka_Rex — Tue, 09 Oct 2007 19:18:56 MDT

Is it just me... or does it look like he has the traditional GTA claw-hands in that picture?

Indy_aka_Rex

Analyst Says GTA IV First Week Sales Could Reach 9.5 Mil

i_9 — Tue, 09 Oct 2007 19:18:24 MDT

I can't see them ever releasing a demo for this. It just doesn't feel right.

i_9

Analyst Says GTA IV First Week Sales Could Reach 9.5 Mil

mentalboy11 — Tue, 09 Oct 2007 19:18:07 MDT

@TOWER_JUNKIE:

i'd believe those numbers if it was also on PC

mentalboy11

Analyst Says GTA IV First Week Sales Could Reach 9.5 Mil

MasterOfPastures — Tue, 09 Oct 2007 19:18:06 MDT

@XGamerX: Demo? Why? they dont have to convince anyone. IT IS going to sell...

MasterOfPastures

Analyst Says GTA IV First Week Sales Could Reach 9.5 Mil

huginn — Tue, 09 Oct 2007 19:18:02 MDT

9.5 sales over 2 platforms of course.

Which is like a doublekiller app... This is maddness!

huginn

Analyst Says GTA IV First Week Sales Could Reach 9.5 Mil

King Louse — Tue, 09 Oct 2007 19:17:52 MDT

that's the stupidest prediction i've ever read.

King Louse

Analyst Says GTA IV First Week Sales Could Reach 9.5 Mil

ruibing — Tue, 09 Oct 2007 19:16:58 MDT

Ehh never been much a fan of GTA series.

ruibing

Analyst Says GTA IV First Week Sales Could Reach 9.5 Mil

mystic54 — Tue, 09 Oct 2007 19:16:56 MDT

Its coming out on 2 platforms, so I would hope that it sells more than a 1 platform game...

mystic54

Analyst Says GTA IV First Week Sales Could Reach 9.5 Mil

Black-Dog-Howls — Tue, 09 Oct 2007 19:16:42 MDT

@XGamerX: We might want the news and demos and confirmation that it's good but Joe Gamer out in Suburbia or Urban Apartment building #11971007711 could cares less. He's just going to buy the game.

All the same, demo please.

Black-Dog-Howls

Analyst Says GTA IV First Week Sales Could Reach 9.5 Mil

mentalboy11 — Tue, 09 Oct 2007 19:15:57 MDT

at least its not coming out during the flood, that way i can afford it.

mentalboy11

Analyst Says GTA IV First Week Sales Could Reach 9.5 Mil

TOWER_JUNKIE — Tue, 09 Oct 2007 19:11:25 MDT

I have no doubt GTA IV is going to be as popular as Halo 3, but those figures are pushing it.

TOWER_JUNKIE

Analyst Says GTA IV First Week Sales Could Reach 9.5 Mil

XGamerX — Tue, 09 Oct 2007 19:08:51 MDT

lets wait till we get some decent impressions and demos out first

XGamerX