Phenom88

Flazh

halo is for handicapped people that want to play fps games.

Kaedex

Sad that you're still trying that line. You might as well be speaking in leet, for god's sake.

justhesh

But a movie ticket ranges between $6-14 dollars.

Taking the average number it would take 1,453,488 people to buy Halo 3 to break $125 million. However, it took, again using the average number, 12,500,000 people to get $125 million for Spiderman 3.

So, even though the total amount would be the same, the actual number of units wouldn't be. Once the number of sales starts matching up, let me know.

Shaneman

You need a working console in order to play games. You think they got that covered.

XD Classic! Sad but true.

ftrunks2k

Papa Midnight

Papa Midnight

tehFluffz

"But keep in mind, the money isn't really in software sales, but in consoles. So is the marketing really for Halo 3? Or is it to SELL MORE CONSOLES???

You know the answer to that!"

It's actually a little bit of both for a title like Halo 3. The goal is ALWAYS to sell more software, because it's current/future software sales that subsidize the cost of the console. At one point, Microsoft was said to be losing around $80 per 360 sold, if I'm not mistaken.

They'll see about half of any given sale on first-party games, and usually $10 or so on third-party games. Thus, if they sell an Xbox 360 at an $80 loss, then a gamer that buys 8 third-party games over the system's life should generally cause that to be a break-even sale. Even if 360 only had a four-year lifespan, that's just 2 games/year. To the casual gamer, that's Madden and "something else."

So there you have that, and of course a major hit like a Halo 3 helps Microsoft with the attach rates.

But then you have the other side of the coin. A game like Halo 3 is going to drive system adoption rates - how strongly, we don't know yet. Might be they'll sell 3 million copies of the game and an extra 300,000 hardware units. Might be they'll sell six million copies of the game and an extra two million units. We'll see what we see. But what happens there, now, is not only is Microsoft making money off the software sale, but now that's an additional X number of units that can become profit generators with two pieces of software per year. If the units sold *now* aren't losing money anymore, then it's instaprofit.

Bottom line: you guys are both kinda right. He's more right, but your point isn't totally invalid, either.

jallen

phantam

you guys do realize that halo 3 has PREORDERS of over 1 MILLION already, and that doesn't say how many of those were legendary edition which basically count as 2 copies towards that 2.6 million goal.

i can 100% see them hitting this market.

big enough ownersbase? Their nearing on 12 million, and we all know that big games like gta and halo alone drive consoles sales in the history.

And i hate to bust the h8ters bubbles... but on amazon you do realize that legendary sales whhere in the top 10 ... thats a hella lot of legendary in that 1+ million preorders

phantam

deadHonk

dadeisvenm

I hope, er, I know the game will be huge on Sept 25th and everyone will take notice, especially the gamers who can't stand the game (for whatever reason).

Collapse The Control

What's the punchline? I need to know! Seriously, it's been a long day and I cannot get a wink of rest until I know. I tried, Lord knows I tried, but the Sandman would not come to me until all was revealed. Release me!

MFFSFisher

Yep... poor quality. Really, are you serious? The Halo series is a joke compared to so many other FPS franchises.

The marketing must be working though with all of these sales numbers being thrown around.

Mezodon

7 million units in its first day at $50 each would add up to $350 million, not the $125 million that Halo 2 actually made on day one. So even if Halo 3 only sold half as many units at the old $50 price tag, it'd still be well over their $155 million goal.

justhesh

Hey I think you may soon have something in common with the new UN Secretary General, Ban Ki Moon.

XbhaskarX

rocky70605

@poematik14: Good God! $129 million! That's a lot of tiny helmets!

MFFSFisher

Consolcwby

Nice analysis btw, and your numbers make sense too. The differences not accounted for is that the userbase is lower, 10 million vs almost 17, and market awareness of halo has increased.

Theres unknown unkowns, and known unknowns, and this is an known unknown. Brand awareness, take rate, and the video game market have all changed since halo 2, we are just shitting in the dark here.

Belain

I find it odd how much you troll, Sony fanboy.

Cellien

rocky70605

pikachumariachi

-

Brother, all the money is in software, not the console. Halo 3 is a huge win for MS! the fact its first party means no licensing (sic) fees, yet they get to charge the same price per unit, add in a spectacular take rate, and product tie ins. ChaChing!

Belain

nxp3

okenny_unbanned

Phenom88

And you know it's the hardcore halo fanboys that buy the game within the first 24 hrs. Which means those 2.5M will be in line again. MSoft doesn't even need to do any marketing at all to get these guys to buy the game.

2.5M fanboys x $60* game (not including special/legendary editions) = $150M

Now of you add the marketing thats going on right now to get fresh faces into Halo (let's pretend 25,000 new people) I easily bet more than that. That's an additional $1.5M (I personally wouldn't do all of the mass marketing for less than 25,000 new people).

Let's also say according to the 75/15/10 rule that 75% buy the regular Halo 3 game (1.875M x $60 = $112.5M) 15% of the fanboys buy the Limited Edition (375,000 x $70 = $26.25M) and 10% but the Legendary Edition (250,000 x $130 = $32.5M)

Standard $112M
Limited $26.25M
Legendary $32.5M
New fans $1.5M
TOTAL $172.25M
SURPASSING MSOFTS GOAL!!!

But keep in mind, the money isn't really in software sales, but in consoles. So is the marketing really for Halo 3? Or is it to SELL MORE CONSOLES???

You know the answer to that!

rocky70605

I can't really see how they can do that. I LOVE the Halo series (almost as much as supreme commander and ET:QW) but didn't Halo 2 sell 7 million in its first day? Aren't there 10-12 million xbox users right now, compared to the 25-35 million Xbox 1 users back then?

SF_Owns

MetaKz

firefruze

Gunhaver

Reg Xbox launched 11/2001, halo 2 launched 11/2004
3 years into the product lifecycle that lasted 4 years. The 360 launched 11/2005.

The xbox finished its lifecycle with about 24 million installed, and at week 156 (when halo2 launched 3year date) had installed base of 15 million units.

Thank you [en.wikipedia.org]
and [vgchartz.com]

Sorry Kemurie, maybe you should do some research before you call someone "dumb," lest you want the takes one to know one moniker.

Besides that, I really hope halo3 blows the doors off. Its critical in establishing the videogame market as a real industry, not some second fiddle to music, tv, and movies.

Belain

homernoy

there's alreayd 1 million pre-orders for halo 3. doesn't matter if it's gamestop or not, there's 1 million ready for ya.

presto117

hey, look. you made a funny. not.

presto117

way to try and make your opinion everyone elses.

nothing more annoying than that.

presto117

I think we already knew that.

XbhaskarX

It boils down to simple finances. If Halo 3 can top Spider-Man 3, even though the average game goes for five times the cost of the average movie ticket, it's a win for games. We (the gamers) benefit from financiers thinking that they can fund the next Warcraft or Halo because they sink cash into the industry we consider a hobby. Even if they're looking to bank Generic WWII Shooter #84723, there's a faint chance that some of that money might land on a decent project.

Bottom line, a success story for the industry is a potential success story for all gamers in the long-view/grand scheme. It takes an ocean of fertilizer to grow a single perfect rose, after all.

Hagglegaggle

dadeisvenm

Phenom88

Sardu

im_different

stop using math to prove things!

SquirrelPhister

On average, a movie ticket goes for $10 (less for children, students, and seniors). So, excluding those cheaper tickets (since $10 would be the norm), that would mean about 15.1 million people saw the movie the opening weekend.

And for Halo 3, the norm is $60, with the pricier Collector's and Legendary Editions at $70 and $130, respectively.
So, less units need to be sold to reach the goal (at most, about 2.6 million need to be sold, if only the standard edition).

And since the cheapest version is less than the cheapest Halo 2 ($50), that makes it $10-per-unit easier to reach that goal. For Halo 2 to have made $155 million, it would have needed to sell 3.1 million units.

So... yeah. Skewed comparison.

BPMν

this endeavor isn't meant to prove that there are more customers invested into the video game industry than the movie industry. As long as the money keeps rolling, companies could care less about the actually number of customers. Instead, this endeavor is meant to prove that the video game industry can yield more money than the movie industry.

Also, for those of you who say that Halo never did anything for video games, consider the following:

1) It showed that online multiplayer gaming was a profitable venture.

2) It pushed Sony to release Killzone and Killzone 2, along with other FPS's I don't care to mention. It also pushed Sony to beef up the PSN.

3) It set a bar for the quality of all FPS's.

4) And now, if it does indeed yield $175 million, Halo 3 will have single-handedly proved that investing money into video games is a lucrative venture.

freeway8989

Kemuri

mphz

Kyle81

CONFUSEDgam3r

Okay, so they're conceivably as much as halfway (if not more) to their goal.

jallen

40% lower than its predecessor when Halo 2 came out, but in 2/3 the time, too, so...

jallen

Spartan1308™

TOCATL

I'm pretty damn sure it wasn't close to the 360's install base when Halo 2 was released. Shit I might have overreacted a bit. Srry Blog.

Kemuri

But Halo 2 only cost $49 for the regular and $55 for the Collectors Edition. We now have a $125 Limited Edition which could easily propel things upward.

DigitalHero

rcarydon

Here comes the new sound, just like the old sound.

Mongoosekun

Moonshadow101

Yeah I realize that. It's how I react to stupidity. I'll try to tone it down.

Kemuri

Yeah, I think the whole point of this challenge is to try to prove that video games and movies ARE comparable.

justhesh

Triple post!!!

Actually you can blame the producers not Sam Raimi. If he had his way, the movie would have been much better.

Kemuri

Wow, you're on the highway to the ban-ger zone.

justhesh

okenny_unbanned

Halo 3 has some limits as far as physical availability, but two things there.

1) smart money says Microsoft is going to go all out to get as many copies in store, with the idea that nobody who goes out day one to buy the game is unable to do so.

2) considering anybody with an internet connection can place an order for the game, even if the product isn't physically delivered on 9/25, they can still claim the sale if it was placed on 9/25.

Therefore, they *could* compare day one sales directly, but it's not a fair comparison of initial demand, since Halo 3 has sales options that Spiderman 3 doesn't.

jallen

......

Congratulations you are Kotaku's own retard of the day.

Are you seriously that dumb. Xbox sales were nowhere near the sales of 360 sales.

Kemuri

Go Kill Yourself. No one will miss you.

Kemuri

How many millions in console sales do you think they're shooting for? $50 mil? It's not that much of a stretch.

$200 million in Halo 3 & 360 usits (aside from other games) in a weekend? OH CRAP I forgot to buy a second controller. $210 million?

StartingAces

No, not at all. Videogames and movies are entertainment. A Rolls-Royce is a car.

@LORDofDANCE:

Dammit, with the typos. I meant that you can't blame Sony.

LORDofDANCE

Yeah I can see that happening also.

DigitalHero

Zim

Spartan1308™

I dont' think you can blame Sony for that. It's more Sam Raimi's fault.

LORDofDANCE

Actually, no, it's not at all like that.

justhesh

Just a shade over 2.58 million necessary if every single person buys the basic version.

Hair over 2.2 million if everybody goes for the $70 edition.

1.19 million if everybody goes for the collector's edition.

'Course, it's going to be a mix of all three. So let's say with $155M as the target, that 75% go basic, 15% go collector's, and 10% go legendary.

To go over $155 million in gross revenue, they'd need a total of 2,262,774 units sold on day one with that percentage breakdown.

That means 1,697,081 units for the basic edition, 339,416 for collector's, and 226,227 for the legendary edition.

If you go to 80/15/5, it ends up looking like:

2,384,616 total units
1,907,693 basic
357,692 collector's
119,231 legendary

Both are achievable, I think. Two further thoughts:

1) Have there been a million preorders? If so, is it reasonable to expect another 1-1.4 million day one walkup sales?

2)I wonder how many people who have preordered have done so for the collector's or legendary edition, as that would potentially make a pretty big dent in the number of basic unit sellthroughs required to hit the target.

jallen

okenny_unbanned

Yay generic sci-fi FPS!

Americana

"I think a lot of people are forgetting that the majority of the people that 'got a 360 for halo' haven't actually gotten the console yet"

Might I ask which news source gave you that idea?

justhesh

Because its still stupid to compare a games sales to a movie's box office ticket sales.

That's like Rolls Royce releasing a press statement boasting that they sold 500 of their cars at $300,000+ thereby making more money than Spiderman 3 at the box office.

Tkrulez

chinesedentist

okenny_unbanned

ohayou_kun

No, that exists because crazy Halo fans expect it to, and would give an arm for it.

justhesh

the real question is whether or not MS will have enough stock. which I'm pretty sure they will.

sc00t420

They're not really wanting to outsell the movie to outsell the movie, they're just hoping it will prove to the naysayers just how viable the video game medium is. Believe it or not, the medium is still generally thought of as kid stuff, despite the majority of gamers being adults (who, granted, started as kids). Let that weigh heavy, pun intended, on Roger Ebert's mind.

justhesh

I can honestly say I'll get my money's worth out of HALO 3 while SPIDERMAN 3 was a load of Crapola.

Way to ruin one of the best Spiderman stories and villains of all time Sony....way to go.

GoonieGooGoo

Ack, long day

I meant to say how would a $60 game that you have to buy a 360 to use beat out a $10 ticket that you don't need to invest in any hardware to use? In terms of total consumers.

LORDofDANCE

bangbangblah

Kinburn

That's completely impossible and foolish to suggest. How would a $10 ticket that you don't need to invest in any hardware to use beat out a $60 game that you have to buy a 360 to use? Put things in perspective.

@sinny:

Did Kotaku start advertising at Gamespot? I can't wait for the banhammer to strike.

@endaround:

That's a good point. It still sounds impressive, anyway.

LORDofDANCE

QC8472

This is stupid. You can't directly compare the two.

womfalcs3

"If it does will it cripple the sales of 3rd part software?"

I seriously doubt that would happen even if every 360 owner bought the game. Heck, every 360 AND PS3 owner.

justhesh

Samos42

SomeRandomGuy

justhesh

Assuming that the average transaction price is $75 this time around - and that's just a WAG - they're going to need to sell 2.01M copies on day one to make those numbers.

djsyndrome

Spiderman moves make a bit over a billion each. When the foreign and domestic products are totaled from the release until it hits DVD.

I do think that it is very possible to hit 150 million in a day or two since many people bought the 360 for the promise of halo. It also costs a bit to a lot more than halo 2 did at release.

The question is will this game climb past the %50 adoption rate(300mil$$)? If it does will it cripple the sales of 3rd part software?

Techguy1138

Gamemaster

chinesedentist

Not exactly an unrealistic goal there, MS.

chinesedentist

qbix

alucard_0007

mustang

How about you try to try to beat movies when it comes to number of customers, not dollar amount.

Tkrulez

My guess is that it won't get there.

KingBroly

Mister Adequate

Walshicus

endaround

Truepatriot

BloggyMcBlogBlog

Ishmae1

Stooch

D3t3rr3nce

That's even higher than Burning Crusade did in its first 24 hours, but the question is how many people will buy either of the limited editions? Because if people actually cough up for that, then they'll obviously need to sell fewer copies to get to $155 million.

Stormrider

nikolajz1

Tyrannical

sinny

seasponge

MoeB

Spartan1308™

MooseMuffin

Zim

Len Bias Cocaine Surplus

Jet Set

Cant wait for Halo 3!

poematik14

MasterOfPastures

i_9

BlackDove

LostToys

hvnlysoldr