Bookmark this post and re-check it in 2016. Eminently quotable games business analyst Michael Pachter doesn't just host fun shows on GameTrailers. He crunches numbers, gives stock advice and forecasts the future of the gaming industry. Today, he revealed his mathematical model's predictions for the new console generation.
The following is from an e-mail he sent today to investors, reporters and other folks who need to know this kind of thing:
- We expect Sony's and Microsoft's new consoles to thrive over the next three years, with cumulative worldwide sales of 37.7 million PS4 and 29 million Xbox One consoles by year-end 2016. We do not expect Nintendo's Wii U to fare as well, with cumulative sales of under 20 million by 2016.
- Our overall forecast is based upon several assumptions: first, we expect console prices to decline only modestly over the next three years, with PS4 pricing in the U.S. dropping from $399.99 at launch to $299.99 by 2016 and with Xbox One pricing in the U.S. dropping from $499.99 at launch to $349.99 by 2016; second, we expect new release software pricing to remain at $59.99 in the U.S. for the next three years; finally, we expect Nintendo to continue producing the Wii U. Should any of these assumptions prove to be incorrect, hardware and software sales will be affected, and it is highly likely that the ultimate results will differ significantly from our forecast.
We shall see, we shall see...