For the doubters; despite being an Epic employee, he's absolutely correct about this. I'd personally give it 20 years before it's running at more than 60 fps, but I've seen photo-realism rendered in real-time. It is possible. "Photon mapping" is pretty much going to be the next "bloom" except it's not something you can really overdo.
Just keep in mind that there has yet to be an easy solution to getting high-resolution textures that map against geometry automatically.
I kinda hate it. It bugs me. I hate when people go all "OH WTF THIS GAME IS SO REALISTIC!" and they just play the thing because it´s realistic.
Why would I play videogames to have real-life like settings? It´s easier to live the fuckin life. Soon they´ll have photorealistic have-a-job games, pay-your-mortgage-games, sell your soul to pay for college realistic games. C´mon, I know this is graphical. But games are about escapism.
Games to me are about impossible worlds, playing upside down as Mario, killing mythological creatures as Kratos, playing with geometrical pieces in Tetris, fighting cartoons in Street Fighter, killing zombie, whatever. I truly despise this "real-world" attitude and its elitists. Over exxagerated characters are what makes games cool. C´mon!
I don't see the future of gaming lying in being photo-realistic. Sure, there will always be games that strive for a realistic look, but developers seem to be noticing that they can stylize their games and pull off amazing looks without being realistic.
As a 3D modeler myself, I don't want to constantly be creating things that already exist in the real world. We have imaginations, lets use them.
Disclaimer: This really speaks more about Realism in video games as apposed to the subject of the article.
If I wanted Realism I wouldn't play video games at all.
For me, and I'm guessing a lot of you, Playing video games is a way to leave this boring world and enter a new one.
For this reason I cannot stand games like COD and its attempts at Realism. (sorry to single out COD)
If I wanted to fight in a middle east war I would,and we all can, I'm not going to pay 60 bucks for that privilege.
For the Same reason I dont enjoy super realistic racing games like GT or Forza. I have always enjoyed Burnout for its over the top version of reality.
I do see the want for some people to live these lives through games when their own lives do not allow for it.
Personally I would rather this world be one of imagination and originality. Realist games just look to the world for source material rather than attempt new ideas.
Further in that idea is the notion of Photo realism.
Is photo realism really art at all? When producing photo realistic renditions of real life not much nothing new is produced. So is it art? This is for the eye to decide.
Personally I will always prefer a Bright and beautiful world of myth and wonder as apposed to today's bland design of necessity.
@Noodle-Works: Sounds like your gripes are more about Epic's particular style than anything technical. The fact that Epic puts these inhuman-looking brutes in their game doesn't mean we aren't approaching a photo-realistic level of detail.
Regardless of how you feel about the art style, there's no denying that Gears, and so many other games nowadays, are continuously pushing the envelope graphics wise. The characters may not be to your liking, but the environments are still beautifully detailed and realistically rendered.
I think we've pretty much reached a point now where we've got rudimentary virtual simulations of every visual element in the real world; Light, wind, etc.
At this point I think it's just a matter of improving everything until it reaches a level of detail that's nearly indistinguishable from reality.
And the first step toward photo-realism? Human males with realistically proportioned musculature structures. The world stands a better chance of seeing women built like Lara Croft than it does seeing a man built like Marcus Fenix.
The problems with Epic and so many other game's models goes beyond just overblown muscles. They are physically deformed. Their arms drag down to their knees, their forearms are too large, their torso is bigger than their lower body. There's tons of things. It's like these people never took a figure drawing class and learned all their anatomy from anime and Rob Liefeld comics.
@stupid_mcgee: uber pyro > zerg rush: BTW, this is why you should hat Robe Liefeld and all of the modelers that follow in his horrific, steroid-fueled train of anatomical butchering:
@kitsuneconundrum: No, several physical barriers have been reached, and while technology has been getting better it has been doing so at a slower rate. Look at hard drive capacity as an example of that.
@Zunnoab: Moore's Law describes chip complexity. Hard drive platters are not chips, and aren't directly affected. A more direct example is RAM/flash drives. Capacity has been increasing steadily, to the point that we now have USB sticks of over 32GB, and until the individual chips themselves are at that point, it's expected to keep growing. When that happens, there are several techniques already being prototyped that could sustain the growth for at least another couple decades.
@spannu:It theorizes that the number of transistors in an integrated circuit will double every two years but it can be applied to nearly all facets of technology as they've all been improving at an exponential rate.
Moore's Law isn't so applicable anymore. For example, CPU's have reached the barrier where doubling the amount of transistors on a chip is now unfeasible and what Intel and many others expected (12ghz/16ghz cpu's) has now been showing to be near impossible due to heat issues for the moment so instead, we get multiple cores which while adhering to the idea that 'power' will double, doesn't fit into Moore's Law directly.
For the moment however, Moore's Law is still applicable and should be for another several years.
@DigiMish: Just stopping by to provide a reference in case this discussion carries on.
Moore's law describes a long-term trend in the history of computing hardware. Since the invention of the integrated circuit in 1958, the number of transistors that can be placed inexpensively on an integrated circuit has increased exponentially, doubling approximately every two years. The trend was first observed by Intel co-founder Gordon E. Moore in a 1965 paper. It has continued for almost half a century and in 2005 was not expected to stop for another decade at least.
Almost every measure of the capabilities of digital electronic devices is strongly linked to Moore's law: processing speed, memory capacity, sensors and even the number and size of pixels in digital cameras. All of these are improving at (roughly) exponential rates as well. This has dramatically increased the usefulness of digital electronics in nearly every segment of the world economy. Moore's law describes this driving force of technological and social change in the late 20th and early 21st centuries.
@gurfinki: Well, hopefully the industry will plateau and then costs will go down as the technology is mastered. Then we could move on to focusing how good a game is rather than how shiny it is.
@gurfinki: I can see this major benefit from a mile away. Medical simulations.
Think of how advanced retrospectives would be for those who had training under a photo-realistic surgery. Of course, it doesn't beat the real thing, but the application is endless.
Can't wait to see what Japan and other horny internet people will make when the tech gets better. Of course it depends on the artist, the stuff out now just looks like 3d cartoons trying to be realistic.
05/27/09
Just keep in mind that there has yet to be an easy solution to getting high-resolution textures that map against geometry automatically.
05/27/09
Why would I play videogames to have real-life like settings? It´s easier to live the fuckin life. Soon they´ll have photorealistic have-a-job games, pay-your-mortgage-games, sell your soul to pay for college realistic games. C´mon, I know this is graphical. But games are about escapism.
Games to me are about impossible worlds, playing upside down as Mario, killing mythological creatures as Kratos, playing with geometrical pieces in Tetris, fighting cartoons in Street Fighter, killing zombie, whatever. I truly despise this "real-world" attitude and its elitists. Over exxagerated characters are what makes games cool. C´mon!
05/26/09
As a 3D modeler myself, I don't want to constantly be creating things that already exist in the real world. We have imaginations, lets use them.
05/27/09
05/26/09
If I wanted Realism I wouldn't play video games at all.
For me, and I'm guessing a lot of you, Playing video games is a way to leave this boring world and enter a new one.
For this reason I cannot stand games like COD and its attempts at Realism. (sorry to single out COD)
If I wanted to fight in a middle east war I would,and we all can, I'm not going to pay 60 bucks for that privilege.
For the Same reason I dont enjoy super realistic racing games like GT or Forza. I have always enjoyed Burnout for its over the top version of reality.
I do see the want for some people to live these lives through games when their own lives do not allow for it.
Personally I would rather this world be one of imagination and originality. Realist games just look to the world for source material rather than attempt new ideas.
Further in that idea is the notion of Photo realism.
Is photo realism really art at all? When producing photo realistic renditions of real life not much nothing new is produced. So is it art? This is for the eye to decide.
Personally I will always prefer a Bright and beautiful world of myth and wonder as apposed to today's bland design of necessity.
05/27/09
05/26/09
05/27/09
05/26/09
that game looks like crap. all the men look like steroid junkies with big square zero personality doppy faces.
Its fun to play, no doubt, but photorealistic? I dont think Epic is one to talk about that sorta technology.
well, unless you like run of the mill strong guys with impossibly big guns and impossibility cheek bones.
(because thats a sign of strength. big cheek bones. and big guns)
05/26/09
Regardless of how you feel about the art style, there's no denying that Gears, and so many other games nowadays, are continuously pushing the envelope graphics wise. The characters may not be to your liking, but the environments are still beautifully detailed and realistically rendered.
05/26/09
At this point I think it's just a matter of improving everything until it reaches a level of detail that's nearly indistinguishable from reality.
05/26/09
05/26/09
05/26/09
05/26/09
Tumor.
05/27/09
05/27/09
"Maybe it's a tumor..."
"It's not a tumor."
The problems with Epic and so many other game's models goes beyond just overblown muscles. They are physically deformed. Their arms drag down to their knees, their forearms are too large, their torso is bigger than their lower body. There's tons of things. It's like these people never took a figure drawing class and learned all their anatomy from anime and Rob Liefeld comics.
05/27/09
05/27/09
To think I used to like Image Comics.
05/27/09
05/26/09
*Note for those who don't notice: The Gamasutra article has multiple pages. (10 pages.)
05/26/09
05/26/09
05/26/09
05/27/09
05/27/09
@spannu:It theorizes that the number of transistors in an integrated circuit will double every two years but it can be applied to nearly all facets of technology as they've all been improving at an exponential rate.
@kitsuneconundrum:
Moore's Law isn't so applicable anymore. For example, CPU's have reached the barrier where doubling the amount of transistors on a chip is now unfeasible and what Intel and many others expected (12ghz/16ghz cpu's) has now been showing to be near impossible due to heat issues for the moment so instead, we get multiple cores which while adhering to the idea that 'power' will double, doesn't fit into Moore's Law directly.
For the moment however, Moore's Law is still applicable and should be for another several years.
05/27/09
Moore's law describes a long-term trend in the history of computing hardware. Since the invention of the integrated circuit in 1958, the number of transistors that can be placed inexpensively on an integrated circuit has increased exponentially, doubling approximately every two years. The trend was first observed by Intel co-founder Gordon E. Moore in a 1965 paper. It has continued for almost half a century and in 2005 was not expected to stop for another decade at least.
Almost every measure of the capabilities of digital electronic devices is strongly linked to Moore's law: processing speed, memory capacity, sensors and even the number and size of pixels in digital cameras. All of these are improving at (roughly) exponential rates as well. This has dramatically increased the usefulness of digital electronics in nearly every segment of the world economy. Moore's law describes this driving force of technological and social change in the late 20th and early 21st centuries.
Glad I could help.
05/27/09
05/26/09
:P
05/26/09
Is "more real than real" possible?
0_____o
05/26/09
Oh who am I kidding?
This is never going to happen.
05/26/09
Think of how advanced retrospectives would be for those who had training under a photo-realistic surgery. Of course, it doesn't beat the real thing, but the application is endless.
[pubs.doc.ic.ac.uk]
It's funny how advanced applications of technology are being derived from ideas in games (and future developments).
Of course, games would rock too! :D
05/26/09
05/26/09
Porn video games done right!
*shudder*
05/26/09
05/26/09
Oh yeah baby! Look at those... dead eyes.
05/26/09
ah well.