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Denver, 1:11 AM
Mon Nov 9
19 posts in the last 24 hours
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11/06/09
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11/06/09
Look at music sales in the last 5 years. I'm one of the few in my city caught buying CD's at the store. Also, even my parents are aware that you can illegally download movies, music, games... 20 years is an extremely optimistic outlook to me. I'd say 5-10 years sounds more likely. #satoruiwata
11/06/09
Also add to that the popularity of music over video games (to disagree with this point would be hallucinatory), the size of music vs video games (3200 [average] songs on your 16gb mp3 player vs 16 [average] games on your 16gb PSPGo), and the general inability for major ISPs to provide FIOS speed and pricing to major metropolitan areas and you've pretty much got too many blockers to allow the death of physical media gaming within the next two decades. #satoruiwata
11/06/09
Digital Downloads are not solely meant to battle piracy. The actual production costs and shipping, etc involved in the physical copies of these games would be cut out almost completely. Companies stand to save a lot of money doing this.
If you want to stick your head in the sand and believe that our Internet speeds, reliability and coverage area won't improve in the next few years, be my guest.
Also, Digital Download does NOT mean strictly internet access only. You can have game kiosks at your local Wal-Mart (or Gamestop) where you can download games to your memory card/stick/wireless device that's synched with your account.
Your argument that physical media is necessary is wishful thinking.
11/06/09
See, here's the deal. If games keep developing at their current natural progression, then in 10 years everything will look better than Uncharted 2; everything will also take up much more drive space. If you look at the past of game-size vs drive-capacity, you'll probably see a ratio that stays at about a flat line (debatable, I know, but it's within reason.) The point that I'm making is that there will always be a point where the console owner will own more games than the console's drive can hold.
Here's where the death of physical media starts to matter. With the millions of people owning the three home consoles of the future, bandwidth costs begin to soar. Presently, Nintendo deals with this by sticking to the SD era, meaning game sizes are small. Microsoft deals with this by charging for Live. Sony deals with this by limiting the user to only 5 downloads of 1 piece of software. In the future, however, Nintendo will be in the HD era, Microsoft will need to increase the rates for Live, and Sony will begin getting a flood of complaints from people who can't download their old games anymore.
So basically at this point, it may have ended up being cheaper just distributing physical media in bulk than dealing with bandwidth costs. It's a bit IF, I know, but it's still there and it still remains to be seen. There is no other media or medium to compare to games, so whether you want to compare this to the Kindle and books, the mp3 and CDs, or the iPod to television (probably the closest you can make) there's no real way to know what the future may bode.
I will concede this whole point, however, if we can get holographic disk technology working for consumers in the next 5 years.
11/06/09
call me lazy, but less hassle in this case sounds beautiful.
my main reason for becoming a supporter of digital content though is that its much easier to collect. im a hardcore collector, and the thought of going back to constantly build my collection of classics coupled with new consoles every 5 years with massive libraries of games is overwhelming.
i would hope or imagine that publishers would have some sort of cards like ms points that would come in some cardboard encasement with instructions for a few extra bucks so that us dinosaurs would feel like we own something.
11/06/09
11/06/09
i started to realize that i just plain enjoy the games more than having them, and although i love seeing my stash.. id enjoy having my 100+ current gen games lacking the tangability of it all.
basically, i just want to be able to play all my stuff whenever (which includes 10 years from now). #satoruiwata
11/06/09
11/06/09
if i only kept a few games at a time, id feel different. #satoruiwata
11/06/09
That's a pretty safe bet, since all video games are digital now. #satoruiwata
11/06/09
11/05/09
Telltale Games already does a great job there. You can buy their games online, download them (and re-download them if needed) without any proprietary software and, once the season is complete, have the option to get the DVD+box+manual for the price of postage and packaging, with extra features like an audio commentary and design notes.
It's a shame that Steam doesn't allow you to order a physical copy. Imagine the money they could skim off the top. If all else fails, at least they could let us back our copy of the game to a DVD so that we can make our own box.
11/05/09
they've had ads running on television with gradually increasing frequency for three years now informing people that they won't be able to use their analog TVs to watch television after that fateful date.
it would be so cool if the new year's eve countdown hit "zero" and then suddenly a huge color-bars screen came up with an announcer's voice going, "if you'd like to view the rest of this broadcast, please purchase a high-definition television, asshole!"
this is worth noting because, you know, the people who play the wii for stuff like wii fit are also the kind of people to watch and believe they actually enjoy the shit that's on japanese TV. and, one by one, they're being convinced to buy HDTVs with the same gusto that an american applies to, say, paying his or her taxes.
so. #wii
11/06/09
I have bad news. Ceasing analog broadcast has little to do with if an HD anything will be released. In fact, the difference is that the broadcast will now be digital. High Definition is just a side effect. We'll probably have to wait for next gen for an HD Nintendo console.
In summary: A change in terrestrial broadcast standards, from analog to digital, doesn't mean a change in closed circuit video electronics resolution. Especially mid generation. #wii
11/06/09
however, the people don't seem to know that. the commercials that have been running on japanese television rather explicitly state, "from january 1st, 2011, you will no longer be able to use your analog TV". i mean, that's literally what they say. #wii
11/05/09
wait, a japanese-owned company releasing an extra-wordy statement intended to confuse, rather than inform? when did they start doing such things?
lol, etc.
i have read through the wall of text, right now, while drinking something containing taurine, creatine, and caffeine (it's how i get my pump in the gym), and i have filtered the text-wall through my inner double-strong text-wall filter (layer one: ability to write incomprehensible walls of text myself; layer two: eight years' experience as a "japanese salaryman").
now calculating the answer to the question "will nintendo release an HD console / HD content?"
please hold
okay. answer computed:
"yes. just, not, like, tomorrow, or anything." #wii
11/05/09
11/05/09
Aside from that, I'd have to agree with Iwata when he talks about the habits of life in regards to a consumer perspective. Going to a digital distribution is going to take time, and it's not going to be just for games but for all forms of distributed media.
However, I see it going a little faster than 20 years.
11/05/09
Just look at Back to the Future for reference. Where the hell's my flying Hoverboard, doc? #satoruiwata
11/05/09
11/05/09
There is no way that general consumers will go all digital in less than ten years. Just no way. They won't even be mostway digital by then. #satoruiwata
11/06/09
I lament when I have to do otherwise.
For me, it's a density thing. I don't LIKE having boxes and manuals and clutter. If I could put every last document, game, etc in my house into a hard drive, I'd do it.
I'm all for it. #satoruiwata
11/06/09
And you are a minority right now.
To go full digital distribution for everything just about everyone would have to be for it, and most of the people in the states probably would look at it and turn right around and look for physical copies.
Young, heavily technologically oriented people are all for it, but it will take a lot of time to convince the rest of the people. #satoruiwata
11/06/09
There may be less than I might like, too.
But I don't think anyone is in a good position to make sweeping statements about how long it will take, is ultimately my point here. #satoruiwata
11/06/09
Agreed, but I'm just saying that expecting it in under ten years is unrealistic, anyway you slice it. #satoruiwata
11/06/09
I don't think we'll be FORCED to be all digital by then.
I think that's a realistic view. #satoruiwata
11/06/09
The capability will be there, but they won't move to it. There are probably many folks who will never move to all digital. #satoruiwata
11/06/09
11/05/09
I take this guy's figures, think about them, put my thumb and forefinger to my chin and say "hrm, possibly, yes."
With the other joker saying 10 years until everything goes Jetsons I just said "Pshaw, more like 20." #satoruiwata
11/05/09
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11/05/09
Now I understand. After watching James' 1.21 GIGAWATTS redux. XD #satoruiwata
11/05/09
I'm not saying I don't see the difference, I'm just saying the difference isn't enough to make me care about it. #wii
11/05/09
At this point, HDTVs are far less expensive than were large cathode ray tube or projection tvs in the past. The part about the resolution, well, I just assume you don't have eyes, then. #wii
11/05/09
11/06/09
Blu Ray, if you have a tv that supports 1080p 24hz mode, looks amazing, better than HD movies on demand. It's staggering, like watching a fucking play -- the motion is so smooth and believable, I just can't wrap my head around it. #wii