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Denver, 12:38 AM
Tue Dec 1
53 posts in the last 24 hours
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10/07/09
1. Consumers don't purchase at the launch price in high enough quantities to show a potentially strong install base of the Natal "platform".
or
2. Developers abandon Natal and software becomes scarce.
Microsoft has a habit of pricing new items on the extremely high end of the "see what the market will bear" principle of pricing. This is not nessessarily a bad business practice. People will buy at any price if the demand is high enough.
So, I'm going to make a guess as to Natal's possible launch prices. I say... (drum roll please)
* $129 for the camera alone (no game)
* $179 for the camera and pack in game (like Wii sports)
* $299 packed in with a system
* $399 integrated into a new version of the 360.
I'm interested in the device but at the price I expect, I am also expecting flawless technology and an extensively software base fairly fast. And those two things I don't see happening.
Only my opinion though; I guess we'll wait and see.
10/07/09
2)The price will start high and become lower ONLY if enough people shell out for the high price.
3)Most people will buy Natal only if there is something worth playing on it.
4)Games worth being played will be released if there are strong predicted sales.
5)Sales rely on install base.
6)Install base relies on customer's perception of value for money.
7)???
8)Profit. or not.
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10/07/09
It's called a luxury good price curve, people.
10/07/09
It's why products like consoles, that rely on market share and software sales to really be successful, will launch below cost and create a temporary (hopefully) loss for the manufacturer.
The Go somewhat avoids this problem by not being the only PSP on the market. It is easier for SONY to claim it is a luxury because people have other cheaper PSP option. I doubt they are really growing their install base much, though, which really should be their primary goal with the system.
As to Natal, a high price point will be its death knell. It is a lesson Nintendo learned decades ago, and a sad tale that has been repeatedly shown to be true: high priced console accessories fail. They garner no developer support beyond the initial push because the price prevents a significant enough install base from developing.
Couple that high price with the polls that show a lot of gamers aren't on board with motion controls, and you've got a recipe for retail disaster.
If Microsoft wants Natal to be a success, they'll eat a huge loss on the initial hardware sales. If they just want another bullet point on a system whose life is half passed, well, they'll consider it a luxury good instead of a loss leader. Clearly, they've made their choice.
Natal will fail.
10/07/09
The point of the Go being in a protected position is actually one I made in another thread. I would argue that Sony's primary goal at this point in time is not to expand their install base, but is to test the waters of digital-only distribution. It's a generally inexpensive test for them, as the PSN exists and will persist beyond the PSPGo, no matter the result. Beyond that, the PSPGo isn't much new from an R&D perspective... remove the UMD, shift some parts around, use a new analog stick, voila. They didn't bust engineering heads over this thing.
The question with Natal will be how long do they persist at the entry price point. I can see something of that nature having a month or two before coming down in price or in that timeframe being packaged in bundles-only to 'add intrinsic value'.
We don't yet know the price, but I can't imagine anything over $100 is going to last - we are dealing with a game system peripheral here. Then again, I largely see controller-less motion controls as a gimmick... so perhaps I have a biased opinion... even if I would buy it to give it a go.
Regardless, there will be a luxury good 'tax' applied to early adopters. As far as the success of the product, I agree that it is largely dependent upon quickly moving off of that entry price and creating an install base to incent developers to work with the peripheral. Bundling Natal with a game or two is NOT going to set the world on fire - we all know how peripheral launch games typically turn out.
10/07/09
10/07/09
Sony's is essentially just a wand with a light on top... and the ps3eye camera which is already fairly cheap.
Natal has its own processor on the device, so will definitely cost more
I could easily see Natal going for between $100 and $200. While Sony could easily sell the ps3eye camera + a wand for like $60 or thereabouts.
of course they may not actually sell it at that price, instead opting to make a larger profit
10/07/09
But i do have the feeling that Natal will be coming in close to the $150 mark which would be a shame really too.
The cheaper the better. It means that more people will adopt it quicker. But knowing microsoft policy on peripheral pricing, the $150 price seems more realistic.
10/07/09
10/07/09
that doesn't really bother me. It's the entry price point that will stop a lot of people from buyin either the PS3motion controller or natal in the first place.
And how often are people going to have 4 people around in thier house to play a game that will allow you to play with four players at the same time using natal? The tech demo video from the microsoft pressconference at E3 with the Buzz type quiz game is the only instance of 4 players playing at the same time using natal. So the arguement of buying 4 PS3 motion controllers for one natal is almost redundant and isn't really a valid arguement, for the most part, but there will be a few games that will allow four players to use natal at the same time.
10/07/09
Sounds to me like it is not going to be ready in time to hit the mass market, they have to release in 2010 to not look silly, but they want to restrict the market to supporters until they have the right software available.
Early signs of a lack of confidence on Microsoft's part? I hope not, but it very much looks like it - especially if Natal comes in more expensive than a Wii.
10/07/09
So why the hell is the wifi adapter still so damned expensive after however many years it's been out. I'm expecting natal to be at least £150.
10/07/09
Then again its Microsoft. So hugely expensive addons are somewhat a norm for them. Hopefully when Sonys wand beats it in sales, they will realise what they've approached it wrong.
As for the portable bit, i think they realise that launching anything would be foolish at this point. First it was only the DS they had to worry about but now theres the iPhone/itouch. Even the PSP does well in several markets but if there ever was to be a Xbox portable i expect it to be more similar to the PSP than anything else.
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10/07/09
I guess that translates to $50-$60 in USD.
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10/07/09
I've actually stopped buying things from Live! beyond the occasional Rock Band song because of it. I can't be the only one.
And this is exactly why the price point will kill Natal. No one buys software for a device they don't have.
10/06/09
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10/06/09
It's not like XBLA games are emulated PS1 games or anything. They're full 360 games, running on 360 code on 360 hardware, just smaller.
10/06/09
10/07/09
Now if they could, say, stream the game to your phone by remote play...
10/07/09
It's the same thing as Sony's Remote Play: if you have the console and the handheld, it's a nice extra, but that's about all it is.
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10/06/09
What usual price curve? Start at overprice and staying there?
Not as much curve as a straight line, I'd have to say.
It'd be like Nintendo saying "You can expect the new game to have the traditional gamer-appeal of most Wii-games"
Or Sony saying "You'll find that the new peripheral will have an equally broad software-support as our earlier add-ons"
10/06/09
10/07/09
Microsoft is referring to "the usual price curve" of which they have none.
Just look at their other peripherals.
10/07/09
10/06/09
I think you have to take into consideration how much Rock Band peripherals cost and start at:
[www.bestbuy.ca]
Man, just because it's a peripheral doesn't mean it's going to be cheap!
And consider the fact that you can only actually play two games with those instruments: Rock Band and Guitar Hero. The Wiifit: $100 something dollars.
Considering that they are touting Natal as a completely new gameplay experience- almost a console onto it's own, it probably won't be cheap.
10/06/09
That's the battle Natal is facing. Even if Natal blows the Wii motion control away, Natal will -never- be able to have the ubiquity of the Wii, which has shipped motion control with every single unit sold. To get Natal, people are going to have to see it and want it enough to go out and purchase it for whatever Microsoft's asking price is. There are a lot of happy 360 owners who are going to look at that and say "I don't need that, I'm fine with my gaming experience right now, thanks." Developers will look at that and say, as they once said about optional hard drive add-ons, "I can't develop a game that's truly reliant on this; I'd be cutting off a big share of potential buyers." Best they can do is pack some Natal stuff into a good bundle with all the hardware you need AND a good game, but people aren't going to buy Natal just to have a Microsoft equivalent of Wii sports - after all, they probably have a Wii for that.
Way I see it, either Microsoft is going to end up ponying up a LOT of money to get "must-have" games built that require Natal as an integral part of the experience, or games will have to be designed in such a way that they're fully playable and enjoyable without Natal, but fully compatible and more fun WITH Natal, which is gonna be a damn hard challenge, if you ask me. My standing question is, "How do you plan to achieve the type of market penetration necessary to give developers the confidence necessary to make good games geared solely for the Natal control scheme (and that's ignoring, for the moment, giant payouts from Microsoft in order to do so)?" Personally, I think it's born into the danger of ending up like Sony's EyeToy. Well...either way, it's already set in motion, so we'll see.
10/06/09
I still remain skeptical of Natal overall though. Until I see some REAL good tech demos of it in action, that is. At least Sony releases videos every once in a while. I only recall a couple from Microsoft, one of which was purely a concept video, and nothing that actually exists.