In fact, it's those cooling hardware sales on the DS that may force Nintendo to react, making an end-of-year announcement more likely, Pachter writes. The DS has been regularly outsold by the PSP for the past few months in Japan, with marquee software releases doing little to boost matching hardware sales.

Sure, the company is still selling DS hardware at a massive rate in the U.S. and Europe, and it just announced a very, very profitable quarter, but the dates match up.

The Nintendo DS Lite launched just fifteen months after the original, fugly DS, making the timing seem right for a hardware refresh.

We'd heard just prior to E3 that Nintendo was planning on releasing a smaller, cheaper DS, one with a a built-in accelerometer. Obviously, that didn't happen, but that talk was based on an IGN rumor, citing "trusted insiders."

Besides, Europe's shirtless models have become bored with the current DS. They need something desperately to reignite their passion for handheld video games. Won't someone at Nintendo think of the models?!

Nintendo DS Successor Ready? [Edge]

The "core" may still be hanging its head, waking up in cold sweats to the sound of Wii Music clanging through their heads, but that doesn't mean Nintendo isn't doing spectacularly on the financial side.

Pachter figures that the Big N will pull in some $3.9 billion for the quarter, adding up to a $17.7 billion take for the entire year. If Nintendo has indeed abandoned the core, who could blame 'em? That's "fuck you" money, right there.

Pachter: Nintendo To Report $3.91b In Q1 Sales, Hasn't Abandoned Core [Gamasutra]

Pachter's reasoning, in comments to GamePro, is that the next-gen consoles are not truly mass-market items yet, and won't be until their price point dips to $199.

"Around 90% of last-generation console sales were made at the $199 price point or below," he says. "Only wealthy or hardcore gamers have purchased consoles so far, given that the PS3 is still $399, the 360 is still $349, and the Wii is still $249. When prices drop below $200 (probably in 2010), the mass market [for 360 and PS3] will emerge."

Pachter's been on the warpath for console price cuts, predicting a $50 drop this holiday season for the PS3 and 360 as the console makers try in vain to duplicate last year's stellar sales figures. He's also said the current next-gen line is going to drop below 10 percent growth by 2010 unless they lop $150 off current prices.

The Wii below $200, that's a solid bet. But good gosh, considering Sony's lost more than $3 billion so far, pricing the PS3 below its production cost, can anyone really think we'll see that unit below $200? Or the 360, for that matter? And if makers did follow his predictions, there would be about a one-year mass market for these consoles before market forces dictated the next next-gen console for us wealthy hardcore gamers, around 2011. If that's when these consoles finally enter the mass market, and how long they'll stay, how many good games will we really see in that span?

Price, not GTAIV to Blame for Slow PS3, 360 Sales Analyst Says [GamePro]

You may recall our Very Special Kotaku Feature earlier this year titled "Analyzing the Analysts," in which tireless former Kotaku intern Tori Floyd weighed game industry analysts against one another. The result? Wedbush Morgan's Michael Pachter scored the highest among his peers in terms of how often he was correct. Yeah, we totally called it.

In an email sent to the press titled "Some Tireless Self-Promotion," Pachter discussed the award:

"I take more than my fair share of criticism for being 'the worst analyst in the industry, bar none'(paraphrased from a quote last week)," Pachter said.

"Sell-side analysts are paid to understand the earnings potential of the companies they cover, so our earnings accuracy is quite important. The closer we are to the mark, the more credible we are to buy-side clients. Notwithstanding many of my outlandish (and often wrong) predictions, I take a great deal of pride in my ability to forecast the earnings of the companies I cover."

"I’m happy to continue to take shots on the many occasions when I’m wrong; just thought you would be interested in seeing that I am recognized as being competent in the one area most important in justifying my compensation ... Thanks to all of you for your continued indulgence."

Congrats Michael!

Speaking at the Electronic Gaming Summit this afternoon, Pachter said that he expects an overall slowdown in video game sales over the next three years.

Pachter expects the industry to see 19 percent growth in the U.S. and 20 percent in Europe this year, with his predicted price drop this holiday. Next year, Pachter expects growth to dip to 16 and 18 percent, unless the consoles drop another $100, which would add another five percent to growth. In 2010 growth will slow to 10 percent and seven percent, unless consoles drop in price by $150, Pachter said.

By the year 2011 Pachter predicts that the industry will flatline unless a new console is introduced.

Wait. That means that game sales will flatten out after six years unless we get a new console. There goes Microsoft's hopes for a seven year console and Sony's plans for a ten year one.

Pachter puts the PS3 slightly ahead of the Xbox 360, but the Wii is envisioned to outsell both combined. That may be largely due to Mario Kart Wii sales, but we suspect that a good portion of those Wii sold are simply due to rabid demand.

And, for the record, neither the PS3 or the 360 come close to Nintendo DS sales. In our fantasy world, Nintendo's statement about April's U.S. sales is simply the image above, in obscenely high resolution.

Pachter: Wii Outsold PS3 and Xbox 360 Combined in April [GameDaily]

E3 is not the boon to publishers that it once was, says Penny Arcade's director of business development Robert Khoo, who as the organizer of the PAX fan expo clearly has an interest, to say the least, in how things turn out.

"The reason that E3 imploded in recent years was because the publishers felt that it turned into this sort of pissing contest between them... where they were trying to figure out who could one-up each other," Khoo said. "They all thought to themselves that it just wasn't worth it."

The controversial decision to re-format last year's E3 into a smaller, more toned-down event was what Khoo calls "a self-correcting measure by the members of the ESA," in an effort to address its constituency better.

"I would imagine that that show is still trying to look out for what the publishers want - that's the whole goal of that trade association, which is to deliver the needs and try to figure out what their members actually want."

Neither Khoo nor Penny Arcade are ESA members, so he couldn't speak to whether the association is acting optimally to assure its members' best interests. "The real question is whether a show like E3 is something publishers want," Khoo said. "I guess Activision, Sierra, Blizzard, Vivendi feel that is not the case."

Earlier today we reported that several companies skipping E3 blamed their departure on "business issues," which analyst Michael Pachter pinned on poor timing for the July event, inconvenient to those companies' fiscal calendars and overlapping with times during which they must observe a "quiet period" and avoid communicating with investors.

"That blackout period is definitely interesting," Khoo said. "We don't really deal with that at all, just given the timing of our show, because its smack dab in the middle of the quarter. I'm sure that is a genuine concern, but since the third quarter ends at the end of September, it doesn't affect us at all."

According to Khoo, the years where publishers knew what to expect from E3 appear to be over, and that's hurting the event and potentially the ESA by association. After last year's "transitional period," quite a bit looks still to be up in the air, he said.

"It's in flux, and since publishers have that level of uncertainty, that is an unattractive trait to have going into a fairly large investment not knowing what you're going to get out of it."

Several industry sources expressed the same opinion as analyst Pachter: that Gallagher's lack of involvement in the industry not only results in poor planning and poor communication regarding E3, but may weaken the ESA's power to serve the video game industry in the long run.

When prior president Doug Lowenstein gave his final, impassioned speech at DICE 07, he vented his frustration at developers and publishers who refuse to defend their creative work when it's controversial, saying, "Don't duck and cover when the shit hits the fan."

But that's largely what Gallagher did when the association failed to publicly defend Mass Effect during the infamous Fox News "SeXbox" controversy. In an interview with GameDaily, he promised to "support the thrust of the industry activities and the reaction of the video gaming community," but refrained from taking any public position on behalf of the ESA.

However, plenty of the major publishers, including Capcom, Take-Two and EA, continue to support both E3 and the ESA. "It seems that at least four very large members are on the floor and doing press conferences, and it seems like a fifth unaligned company is doing a large event contiguous to that," said EA's Jeff Brown, VP of corporate communications. "That means that there's going to be no problem getting a crowd into LA for E3 this summer."

For the first time in several weeks, Take-Two is in agreement with EA on something: "As a member company, Take-Two Interactive supports the Entertainment Software Association, its leadership and its efforts on behalf of the industry," said CEO Ben Feder. "Mike Gallagher has done an outstanding job as president of the ESA and we look forward to participating in the E3 Media and Business Summit this July."

"No plans to drop out, no issue with Mike, no comment," Capcom said, when asked for their thoughts on the usefulness of the ESA and the fate of the event.

Atlus USA is one of the companies declining to participate in this year's E3, but spokesman Aram Jabbari stopped short of placing the blame on the ESA. "The nature of the show changed when they changed it from a consumer show to an invite-only press show," he said. "A lot of things have changed, but our participation doesn't have to do so much with the changes... we just chose not to exhibit this year and we do wish the ESA and all the exhibiting companies the best of luck."

NCsoft said its refusal to attend E3 was related to a timing issue with their internal development schedule and not with any conflicts about E3, but PR manager Mike Crouch declined to comment on potential issues concerning the state of the ESA. "One of the primary functions of the ESA is to manage E3," Crouch said. "And we still believe in E3, and we would have gone this year had the timing worked out for us. In that regard, we don't have anything negative to say about the usefulness of ESA."

"We would have definitely found E3 useful had it fit into our schedule this year. The judgment would be the ESA serves its purpose as far as we're concerned, as far as E3."

"I personally think that, with a lot of respect for the Microsoft guys...I think they're foolish to even worry about who's first and who's second. I think that's just stupid.

You can be second or third and still make a buttload of money...I don't ever hear Activision or Ubisoft saying that they just hate being second or third and that they envy EA so much that they can't stand it. They both make a lot of money, and are very happy to thrive.

Pachter: MS Shouldn't Worry About Being #1 [Next Generation]

"I really don't know what the spend will be, but it could be 10 - 12% of projected sales. If we assume a retail price of $100, that's $10 million in marketing for each 1 million units sold. If they go mainstream (have Oprah demo the device), I could see them selling 3 - 4 million, maybe more. That suggests the potential for $30 - 40 million in marketing.]

Update: Pachter informed us that the New York Post writer never spoke to him and misquoted the article's original Game Daily source. Updated text accordingly.

Report: Nintendo Planning 'Biggest Ever' Marketing for Wii Fit Launch [GameDaily]

Don't despair, though, if you're holding a copy of Brawl with nothing to play it on. Mr. Pachter thinks that with European demand leveling off, Nintendo may shift some of those Wiis Stateside. Stop burning your Euros in protest, please. It'll just breed contempt.

Wii shortage may finally be near an end [Dallas News - thanks, Brian!]

Pachter also projected that said campaign won't "disproportionately benefit GameStop", instead going after non-core gamers who more regularly shop at retail outlets like Best Buy and Target. Sounds like Pachter is also implying that the targeting of non-specialty merchants may have an impact on GameStop's hardware business, keeping the games retailer from enjoying the warm waters of the Blue Ocean.

Fortunately, Pach and crew predicts that the sea of yellow stickers on its used games will help see it through the rough waters of lesser Wii allocation.

Pachter: GameStop To Lose Ground To Target, Wal-Mart? [Gamasutra]

Maybe he's right. I'm still in the honeymoon phase with my iPhone, but my hype level for using the accelerometer to game is on par with the prospect of further SIXAXIS gaming. That's hovering around zilch, currently.

Pachter: iPhone Gaming Not Commercially Sound [Next-Gen]

"We expect that in order to save face, Take-Two management will withdraw its demand that any discussions wait until after the launch of GTA IV, and we think that management will engage in discussions with EA,"

GTA IV to sell 9m units, ship 6m in first week [GamesIndustry.biz]

"In the US, I think it will be close all year, with 360 outselling PS3 most months due to its lower price points (at least as long as it remains lower priced)," Pachter told videogaming247. "Sony gains a huge competitive advantage when HD monitor sales pick up at holiday, as I expect retailers to push PS3 as a Blu-ray player to anyone buying an HD monitor. By year-end, I think PS3 will outsell the 360 in the US by a little."

Pachter on late 2008: "PS3 will likely outsell the 360 in Europe by 20%-40%, and will kill 360 in Japan" [videogaming247, via GamePro]

For EA, sports is enough to pay for the whole [$2 billion] thing. If you get rid of sports competition, you suddenly add Take Two's $200 million per year in sports revenue and EA doesn't compete on price anymore.

Currently [EA and Take Two] compete in pro basketball, college basketball and hockey. So by taking out all of that, EA has a monopoly in sports. If these guys have a monopoly, they're not going to cut pricing on sports games as quickly. We've been seeing sports games come down [in price] before Christmas the last couple of years. That'll never happen again.

Pachter: Sports Drives T2 Deal for EA; GTA is "Gravy" [GamePolitics]

There's been some changes to these results since the original article was released on Monday, due to the availability of new information. While this does change some of the numbers, it also indicates how fluid many of these predictions are, and the challenge of pin-pointing exact answers for many of them, both for journalists, traders who rely on the analysts for smart business choices, and gamers who want to know how well the industry is doing.

Here's the proof that being correct the most often doesn't always mean you're the best analyst.

Michael Pachter - Wedbush Morgan

June 4, 2007
Prediction: Take-Two will push back the release of Grand Theft Auto IV to the next financial year.
Outcome: TRUE
The release date of GTA IV was pushed back all the way to April 2008.

June 12, 2007
Prediction: In May 2007, the Wii will outsell the PS3 4 to 1, with the Wii selling 400,000, the PS3 selling 100,000, and the Xbox 360 selling 225,000.
Outcome: FALSE
The Wii did indeed outsell the PS3 4 to 1, but Pachter's sales predictions were a little high. The real numbers were Wii: 338,000; PS3: 82,000; and Xbox 360: 155,000 in the US.

July 10, 2007
Prediction: Microsoft will announce a price cut of $50-$70 at E3 2007.
Outcome: FALSE
No price cut happened at E3. Microsoft said they were comfortable with their price point, and didn't see a need to follow the way of the PS3.

September 5, 2007
Prediction: As the supply of 60GB PS3s dries up, the 80GB model may well be reduced to $499.
Outcome: TRUE
Right again. Consumers saw a drop in the price of the 80GB PS3 to $500 in October 2007.

September 14, 2007
Prediction: Halo 3 will drive the sales of the Xbox 360, which could exceed selling 400,000 units in September 2007.
Outcome: TRUE
Microsoft sold 527,800 Xbox 360s in the US during September, doubling the number of consoles sold in a month. Pachter also predicted in the same article that 3 million copies of Halo 3 would be sold in the first twelve days. Between September 25 (its release date) and October 5, Halo 3 was estimated to sell just over 5 million copies.

December 10, 2007
Prediction: There will be a 24% jump in November software sales from 2006 ($804 billion) to 2007 (estimated $1 billion).
Outcome: TRUE
Software sales from November 2007 in fact exceeded market expectations, reaching $1.3 billion.

December 14, 2007
Prediction: The previous December sales record is $1.7 billion, which will be shattered December 2007, likely in excess of $2 billion.
Outcome: TRUE
Mr. Pachter got it right on with this one. December 2007 saw sales revenue of $2.37 billion.

December 14, 2007
Prediction: Unreal Tournament III, MX vs ATV Untamed, and the PS2 version of Rockband will top December sales.
Outcome: FALSE TRUE
Pachter was right about one thing: Guitar Hero III for the PS2 took #3 in December sales, selling 1.25 million units. But how wrong he was about UT3 and Untamed, which saw disappointing sales. The winners for December were instead Call of Duty 4: Modern Warfare for Xbox 360 with 1.47 million units sold, and Super Mario Galaxy for Wii, selling 1.4 million units.

EDIT: Pachter has contacted me to make a correction to this prediction. He said that his prediction were those would be the top three games released in December, not top three sellers for the month. So it looks like Pachter gets another point, after all!

December 19, 2007
Prediction: Mass Effect will be coming to the PS3.
Outcome: FALSE
Sony has come out and made a statement that there is currently no Mass Effect in the works for PS3. They said it's possible... but don't hold your breath.

December 25, 2007
Prediction: John Woo will want to make more video games, as that's what action movie directors want to do now.
Outcome: TRUE
As out to left field as this prediction sounds at first, Pachter may be on to something. I'm not sure about all action film directors, but the success of Stranglehold has certainly put John Woo in the mood for video games. Woo founded Tiger Hill Entertainment in 2003, and has said he intends to continue bridging the gap between video games and films, particularly with his upcoming video game and film releases for Ninja Gold, a project he is working on with video game creator Warren Spector.

Accuracy: 6/10 7/10

Colin Sebastian - Lazard Capital Markets

May 17, 2007
Prediction: A new PSP will be unveiled by Sony in 2007.
Outcome: TRUE
September 2007, consumers were introduced to the redesigned PSP slim, just like Sebastian said (although his prediction came out after months of speculation that Sony had something in the works).

May 25, 2007
Prediction: Wii shortages could last through the 2007 holiday season and into 2008.
Outcome: TRUE
Despite meeting Sebastian's monthly target of 1.5 million units made and sold, Nintendo still suffered shortages for the second holiday season in a row.

August 21, 2007
Prediction: The PS3 will outsell the Xbox 360 in July 2007.
Outcome: FALSE Not Sebastian's Prediction
Sorry Mr. Sebastian, no dice. While sales of the PS3 jumped from 98,500 units in June 2007 to 159,000 units in July 2007, it wasn't enough to conquer the Xbox 360, which sold 170,000 units that month.

EDIT: Sebastian contacted me to clarify that while he said the PS3 would sell more and the Xbox 360 would go down, he never said that the PS3 would outsell the 360.

September 13, 2007
Prediction: Halo 3 will generate $200 million in revenue "very quickly".
Outcome: FALSE
While Halo 3 didn't make $200 million in 24 hours like many were expecting (only $170 million, how sad), Sebastian only says "very quickly." I could walk to the corner store "very quickly," but that could mean 5 minutes or half an hour, it's all relative. By the end of its first week, Halo 3 had made $300 million in revenue, which I'd still call "very quickly," but not the 24 hour blitz that most interpreted Sebastian's words to be.

October 2, 2007
Prediction: GameStop will be the real beneficiary of holiday video game sales, with total holiday revenue reaching $1.42 billion.
Outcome: FALSE TRUE
Sebastian's estimate was nearly $1 billion off the mark, as GameStop raked in $2.3 billion during the nine-week holiday period.

EDIT: The prediction made by Sebastian was referring to the Q3 earnings, not the holidays - despite the fact the prediction article doesn't distinguish this. Sebastian was much closer to the actual Q3 earnings, at $1.6 billion.

October 11, 2007
Prediction: September 2007 will see a 30 percent increase in software sales from September 2006.
Outcome: FALSE
It was certainly close. Thanks to sales from Halo 3, software sales rose from $446 million in September 2006 to $550.5 million September 2007. A significant $104 million increase, for sure, but that's only a 23.4% increase from the year before - not quite the 30% that Sebastian said it would be.

October 31, 2007
Prediction: In addition to Wii shortages, PS3 and Xbox 360 consoles will also be in short supply.
Outcome: FALSE Not Sebastian's Prediction
Sony and Microsoft both saw improved sales of their consoles during the holiday season, neither would be considered hard to come by or in any sort of shortage. The Xbox 360 didn't see the strain on supply until after the holidays.

EDIT: Sebastian clarified that the article containing this prediction was misleading, and he never predicted a shortage in PS3s.

December 13, 2007
Prediction: Wii will top hardware sales, although PS3 and Xbox sales will improve going into the holidays due to price reductions.
Outcome: TRUE
Despite supply setbacks, the Wii came out on top in hardware sales, moving 1.35 million units over Holiday 2007. Xbox 360 had a record month of sales, too, selling 1.26 million units, up 11.5% from the previous holiday season. The August price reduction certainly helped, as weekly sales improved from that month onward. The PS3 also saw a much-improved holiday, as it was up 62% from its sales at the same time last year, selling 797,000 units. This was also due in part to price drops in July and October, as well as the introduction of the 40GB model.

December 13, 2007
Prediction:Activisions November sales will double.
Outcome: FALSE
While there is no specific data for the month-on-month increases from Activision, we can compare Activision's Q307 improvement from Q306. They almost doubled revenue, from $142.8 million in 2006 to $272.2 million. Very close, but close only matters in horseshoes and hand grenades.

December 13, 2007
Prediction: Electronic Arts will see a 15-20% increase in sales in November, thanks to sales of Rockband, The Orange Box, and The Simpsons Game.
Outcome: TRUE
In the Q3 report, EA boasts that Orange Box and Rockband drove its 'strongest ever quarterly performance', and The Simpsons Game sold 4 million copies, and is what EA claims to be the 'highest rated entertainment-based game of 2007'. While the company did see a net loss of $33 million, they did see an increase in net revenue over Q307, jumping from $1.281 billion last year to $1.503 billion this year, a 17% increase.

Accuracy - 4/10 5/8

Jesse Divnich - The simExchange

August 17, 2007
Prediction: The PS3 will sell 165,000 units in July.
Outcome: FALSE
The PS3 only sold 159,000 units in July.

September 4, 2007
Prediction: The 80GB PS3 will drop in price by $100 to $499 in order to stay competitive in the North American environment.
Outcome: FALSE TRUE
While at first it looked like it would be Japan only, the 80 GB PS3 saw a price drop in North America late October.

EDIT: As Divnich has clarified to me, the prediction was actually true, since there wasn't a timeline placed on the prediction.

October 17, 2007
Prediction: The Wii will sell 485,000 units in September, despite the competition from Halo 3 and the Xbox 360.
Outcome: TRUE
The Wii sold better than estimated, moving 501,000 units.

October 19, 2007
Prediction: The PS3 will sell 153,000 units in October.
Outcome: FALSE
The PS3 only sold 121,000 units in October.

October 20, 2007
Prediction: The price cut of the PS3 will not affect its overall market share (i.e. it will remain in last place of all the consoles).
Outcome: TRUE
The price cut helped move more PS3s, going from 121,000 units in October to 466,000 units in November, but it still lagged behind all other available consoles - heck, the PS2 still sold 496,000 units in that same month.

November 9, 2007
Prediction: Activision will be the top third party publisher over Holiday 2007.
Outcome: TRUE
Activision's title Call of Duty 4: Modern Warfare topped sales charts in November and December.

November 9, 2007
Prediction: Super Mario Galaxy will sell 2 million units in November, and 1.99 million units in December (both in the U.S.).
Outcome: FALSE
Super Mario Galaxy sold 1.12 million copies in November, and 1.4 million copies in December.

November 9, 2007
Prediction: The Wii will sell 466,000 units in October, 806,000 units in November, and 2.2 million units in December (US sales).
Outcome: FALSE
The Wii sold 519,000 units in October, 981,000 units in November, but only 1.35 million units in December, likely due to the limited availability.

November 9, 2007
Prediction: US December software sales will surpass $2.2 billion.
Outcome: TRUE
Software sales totaled $2.37 billion in December.

January 15, 2008
Prediction: Hardware sales for the US in December will be as follows: Wii - 1.73 million units; Xbox 360 - 1.45 million units; PS3 - 854,000 units.
Outcome: FALSE
The Wii sold 1.35 million, the Xbox 360 sold 1.26 million, and the PS3 sold 797,600.

Accuracy: 4/10 5/10

Evan Wilson - Pacific Crest Secuities

January 24, 2006
Prediction: Europe won't get the PS3 until March 2007.
Outcome: TRUE
This shouldn't be terrible impressive, since he predicted this the day before the official announcement was made, but that hasn't stopped analysts from being wrong in the past. Wilson was correct (for once) about the European release date, as the PS3 went on sale in Europe on March 23, 2007.

August 21, 2006
Prediction: The high price point of the PS3 will not dissuade consumers, and it will sell out during the holiday season (2006).
Outcome: FALSE
Oh, how wrong he was. While the Wii sold out both Holiday 2006 and 2007, PS3s were still readily available both years, especially pre-price cut.

March 12, 2007
Prediction: Availability of the Wii will not improve until April 2007.
Outcome: TRUE
The Wii shortage finally saw hope in April, with the announcement of a Wii shipment the week of April 24.

April 3, 2007
Prediction: The PSP was not selling well due to the higher price point, and the price reduction should help fix that problem.
Outcome: TRUE
Following the price drop, Sony claims they have seen a 90% increase in PSP sales since the price drop came into effect.

June 11, 2007
Prediction: May 2007 will see sales figures increase to $320 million, up 12% from the year before.
Outcome: FALSE
Wilson's predictions were a little short. Software sales were up 33.2% from the previous year to $380.8 million.

July 5, 2007
Prediction: Microsoft is likely to lower console prices closer to the holidays, while Sony might not be inclined to cut console prices any time soon.
Outcome: FALSE
Ouch. Just four days after saying that the PS3 wouldn't be seeing a price cut in the near future, Sony announce they're dropping the price of their 60GB model by $100. Bad call, Wilson. And I'd hardly call the August 8 price cut of the Xbox 360 close to the holidays, so I'm thinking that Wilson was pretty wrong on both counts.

November 5, 2007
Prediction: The Guitar Hero franchise alone could provide $200 million in growth for Activision.
Outcome: FALSE - AT LEAST ACCORDING TO HIMSELF
Just over a month after Wilson predicts Activision's growth based on Guitar Hero, he shows concern that Activision will have troubled growth, despite first week earnings by Guitar Hero III: Legends of Rock of $115 million, which kind of negates his earlier prediction, doesn't it?

November 15, 2007
Prediction: A new Nintendo DS is waiting for release when the sales of the DS Lite trail off.
Outcome: FALSE
Nintendo has openly discredited this claim, and called the rumours "utter speculation". I'd check my sources next time, Mr. Wilson.

November 15, 2007
Prediction: EA will cut prices on 14 of its most popular sports franchises in time for the Holiday 2007 shopping season.
Outcome: FALSE
Despite the sluggish sales of a number of EA Sports titles, including Madden 08, no price cut actually occurred. It was a good suggestion, but not one that EA was prepared to take.

January 14, 2008
Prediction: December 2007 will have sales 26% higher than December 2006.
Outcome: FALSE
Ooh, so close! Normally I'd give Wilson the point, because he was only off the percentage growth by a teensy 2%, but Michael Pachter was able to call it exactly right at 28%, and I feel I should give credit where credit is due. December 2007 saw a total revenue of $4.82 billion dollars.

Accuracy: 3/10

Mike Hickey - Janco Partners

May 17, 2006
Prediction: The cost of making games for the PS3 could alienate some third party publishers.
Outcome: TRUE
Third party publishers were alienated because of the cost (and the fact that the PS3 was floundering throughout 2007), so Sony did something about it and cut the cost of developer's kits.

July 24, 2007
Prediction: In Q208, EA will execute a "quantifiable cost reduction plan."
Outcome: TRUE
EA decided to do this in the form of restructuring the company (i.e. layoffs) eluded to in their Q2 earnings report and announced late October/early November.

October 16, 2007
Prediction: The drop in box office sales can be blamed on the launch of Halo 3, and could last for several weeks.
Outcome: FALSE
Turns out people just didn't like the movies that were out there. In a look at the weekend box office returns of the top 10 movies for each weekend, movies were struggling even before Halo 3's launch: in the four weeks of September (Halo 3 being launched before the last weekend), the revenues were approximately $63 million, $61 million, $76 million, and $73 million. As for the four weekends of the October box office: $61 million, $81 million, $72 million, and $82 million. Of course, once the holiday movies hit in November, box office returns jumped: $124 million, $95 million, $92 million, $142 million, and $69 million. Even Halo 3 couldn't stop the onslaught of holiday movies and their subsequent box office returns.

October 16, 2007
Prediction: Holiday 2007 will see a shift away from the casual Wii games market to the hardcore gamer 360 market.
Outcome: FALSE
The top ten titles sold during the holidays did not contain what most would consider games for the hardcore gamer. Call of Duty 4: Modern Warfare snuck in down the bottom at number ten, but the rest of the list is the standard fare of Mario, brain training, and Wiimote-waggling.

October 29, 2007
Prediction: Activision's key fiscal game sales for Q208 and 2H08 will come from Spiderman 3, Shrek 3, Transformers, Guitar Hero, Tony Hawk, Call of Duty 4 and Enemy Territory: Quake Wars.
Outcome: FALSE
Activision's top titles for Q208 were Guitar Hero II (Xbox 360), Guitar Hero: Rock the 80's (PS2), Spider-Man 3, TRANSFORMERS: The Game, and Shrek the Third. Call of Duty 4: Modern Warfare was the top-selling title of December, so it's fairly safe to say that it will be a moneymaker for Activision, too. But due to the release of Skate around the same time as Tony Hawk, the sales of Tony Hawk will likely not be as high as Activision would hope.

October 29, 2007
Prediction: There will be significant sales of Call of Duty 4: Modern Warfare during the holiday period.
Outcome: TRUE
Call of Duty 4: Modern Warfare topped sales charts in December, selling 1.47 million copies. I'd call that significant.

November 26, 2007
Prediction: Video game sales will help motivate overall holiday sales.
Outcome: TRUE
If online sales are any indication, video games were a big driving force during the holiday retail season. Online purchase of video games, consoles, and accessories saw a 129% growth in sales from the previous year.

January 4, 2008
Prediction: Holiday sales are expected to be around $2.027 billion for GameStop.
Outcome: FALSE
Gamestop sales were even higher than anticipated, reaching over $2.3 billion.

January 4, 2008
Prediction: There's no reason to think video game sales would be weak over the holidays.
Outcome: TRUE
From Gamestop racking up over $2.3 billion to online video game sales increasing by 129%, it's safe to say that video game sales were strong.

January 4, 2008
Prediction: Price target for GameStop (around the holidays) is $68.
Outcome: FALSE
At no point between Nov.1 and Dec. 31 did Gamestop's stock reach $68. The highest point it hit was $63.77 on December 7.

Accuracy: 5/10

Jeetil Patel - Deutsche Bank

November 12, 2006
Prediction: Nintendo will sell approximately 1.5 million Wiis in the US by the end of 2006.
Outcome: FALSE
The Wii had only managed 1.1 million life-to-date sales by the end of 2006.

November 16, 2006
Prediction: The Xbox 360 will do better than the PS3 in Holiday 2006 sales.
Outcome: TRUE
The Xbox 360 sold 1.1 million units in December, while the PS3 only sold 490,000 units.

November 16, 2006
Prediction: Activision and UbiSoft will benefit the most from holiday sales.
Outcome: FALSE
UbiSoft didn't see any of their titles in the top 10 list for December,

November 16, 2006
Prediction: Nintendo will have the biggest retail presence this holiday.
Outcome: TRUE
The DS was the top selling hardware with 1.6 million units, the Wii was the second-highest selling home console with 604,200 units, and four games in the top 10 software titles list (Legend of Zelda: Twilight Princess - GameCube, Legend of Zelda: Twilight Princess - Nintendo Wii, New Super Mario Bros, and Yoshi's Island 2) in December. Take into account the difficulty of finding a Wii in time for Christmas, Nintendo definitely seems to have the biggest retail presence of Holiday 2006.

November 16, 2006
Prediction: The PSP appears to be losing its luster this holiday.
Outcome: TRUE
PSP sales dropped dramatically from the sales numbers two years prior. The PSP-2000 (Slim) came out shortly after, however, which boosted sales.

March 16, 2007
Prediction: Overall sales of next-gen consoles are weaker than this point in the previous cycle, and their sales could further disappoint.
Outcome: FALSE
While it is difficult to compare this generation to compare to the previous one, recent data from the UK showing that the PS3 is selling faster than the PS2 did, indicating that this cycle is plenty strong, at least for one console.

March 16, 2007
Prediction: A price cut for the PS3 is critical, but likely won't happen until at least April 2007.
Outcome: TRUE
The words "at least" are what save Patel here. The price cut didn't happen until July.

October 12, 2007
Prediction: VG Holdings should provide Electronic Arts with solid long-term content.
Outcome: TRUE
As the parent company of Bioware and Pandemic studios, it is likely that EA will benefit from having the two developers under its umbrella, with four as yet unspecified projects from Pandemic and an assortment of projects in the works from Bioware, including an upcoming partnership with Lucasarts.

October 12, 2007
Prediction: The poor quality of EA products could translate into ongoing market share losses.
Outcome: TRUE
EA stayed fairly consistent in the markets around the $55 mark up to the end of the year, but has since dropped to below $45, closing last week at $44.57.

October 19, 2007
Prediction: The PS2 may finally be on its way out of the industry for good.
Outcome: FALSE
The PS2 continues to outsell the PS3 - at least for now - and showed strong sales, moving 496,000 units in November, 1.1 million units in December (that's more than the PSP, as well). Combine that with the rumor of a $99 PS2 sometime this year, and it looks like the 7-year-old system still has some life in it yet.

Accuracy: 6/10

Mitsuhiro Osawa - Mizuho Investors Securities Co.

May 18, 2005
Prediction: The rush for digital cameras in Japan had its peak last year, and the US is about a year behind that.
Outcome: FALSE
Digital camera sales have picked up again in Japan.

May 7, 2006
Prediction: Sony's business model of producing cell chips in volume will fail if they cannot sell PS3s in volume as well.
Outcome: TRUE
Apparently Sony's plan is faltering, as they have to keep changing what their strategy is. The term "business model" is kind of loose, since Sony seems to be changing it as often as some people change their socks, but I'm certainly not seeing any great payout to having the PS3 Cell chips produced in volume.

August 31, 2006
Prediction: Canon stands to be the leading manufacturer of multifunction copiers for the next little while, following the release of their new models.
Outcome: TRUE
At the end of 2007, Canon was still the top copier manufacturer.

November 10, 2006
Prediction: Sony won't be able to ship 6 million PS3s by the end of March 2007, because there won't be enough machines to go around.
Outcome: FALSE
Sony only managed to sell 4.28 million units by the end of March 2007, but it wasn't because there weren't enough machines. There were plenty to go around! People just didn't buy them.

May 16, 2007
Prediction: Sony will make an operating profit (overall) of ¥380-400 billion this year.
Outcome: FALSE
At the end of Q3, Sony has already made a profit of ¥379.2 billion for FY2008 in operating income. It's very likely Sony will far exceed Osawa's expectations, as the lowest operating profit Sony pulled in a fiscal quarter was ¥90 billion, and January to March 2008 shouldn't be radically lower.

May 16, 2007
Prediction: It remains to be seen whether Sony can turn around its losses in the game division.
Outcome: TRUE
Four months after this prediction, Sony is looking for help from its other divisions to help recoup their losses. Sony did see improved sales of the PS3 over the holiday season, but like Osawa said, whether it'll be too little too late to recoup its loses remains to be seen.

May 16, 2007
Prediction: The key to success with the PS3 is launching a more cost-effective version with a 65-nanometer process technology, instead of the current 90-nanometer.
Outcome: TRUE
Following the sale of the Cell chip technology to Toshiba, the processor has become more cost effective with a 65-nanometer processor, but shrunk further to a 45-nanometer processor.

September 4, 2007
Prediction: A price cut for the PS3 is one option to recover the faltering system.
Outcome: TRUE
The price cut this time around was Japan only, but since that's where Osawa is based, I think we can give him this one.

October 26, 2007
Prediction: A lack of strong software titles will make it almost impossible for Sony to meet its target by the end of March 2008 of 11 million units globally.
Outcome: TRUE
While March 2008 hasn't arrived yet, it is looking unlikely. Sony still remains overly optimistic, but the Bloomberg report only pegs Sony at selling 8 million units worldwide.

December 24, 2007
Prediction: Toshiba is losing its strong investment in the flat TV business.
Outcome: FALSE
With the release of this ultra-thin framed television, Toshiba appears to be continuing its innovation in the television industry.

Accuracy: 6/10, but some were pretty wishy-washy, and some weren't about video games.

Richard Doherty - Envisioneering Group

August 8, 2005
Prediction: The PS3 release date will be on track with Sony's estimate of Q206.
Outcome: TRUE
The PS3 was released in North America November 17, 2006, which is in Sony's second fiscal quarter.

September 14, 2005
Prediction: Whether the Xbox 360 launches Nov. 20 or Dec. 5, Microsoft will sell through every unit they can deliver before New Year's.
Outcome: TRUE
Xbox 360's were tough to come by around the holidays in 2005.

November 4, 2005
Prediction: iTunes may no longer be compatible with the Xbox 360 following its launch, because the Xbox 360's interoperability with the iPod is not Apple-endorsed.
Outcome: FALSE
While none of Apple's FairPlay protected tracks work on the Xbox 360, they never would have in the first place. In terms of Doherty's suggestion that Apple would change iPod connectivity, that never happened.

May 10, 2006
Prediction: The console war will be a challenge for Nintendo, because the PS3 may now have greater appeal to the same older people and non-gamers Nintendo is going after.
Outcome: FALSE
Nintendo has sold many, many more Wiis than Sony has sold PS3s, so other than not having enough to units to go around, Nintendo is doing fine.

July 26, 2006
Prediction:Sony will take first place in the console war, with Nintendo possibly being able to take a few percentage points of the market share from Microsoft.
Outcome: FALSE
So, SO wrong. By the end of 2007, it was pretty clear that the PS3 was getting trounced in global lifetime sales. Midway through December 2007, global lifetime sales were as follows: Wii - 16.97 million units, Xbox 360 - 15.06 million units, PS3 - 7.75 million units. No matter how you slice it, the PS3 is not number one in any way. (In another interview in November, Doherty changes his prediction, instead saying that the PS3 will win at the end of the decade, or the halfway point of this console cycle.)

November 14, 2006
Prediction: The PS3's glitches will be ironed out by Thanksgiving.
Outcome: TRUE
Sony offered a firmware update before the November 23 deadline that Doherty suggested.

July 9, 2007
Prediction: Many of the sales that would have gone to the Xbox 360 will go to the PS3 following the PS3 price drop.
Outcome: FALSE
While this is kind of a "we'll never know for sure" sort of scenario, it doesn't look like the price drop of the PS3 crippled Xbox 360 sales. The PS3 went up 135% in units sold over the previous month, going from 81,600 units in May to 98,500 units in June. The Xbox 360 also went up in number of units sold, though, from 155,000 units in May to 198,400 in June.

July 9, 2007
Prediction: BD+, the DRM in Blu-ray discs, won't be hacked for ten years.
Outcome: FALSE
Give hackers some more credit, Doherty! By November 2007, hackers had just about made it through the code, only six months after the release.

July 9, 2007
Prediction: The $100 price cut of the PS3 will make it a lot more appealing to third party developers, and the discount will give Sony the advantage over the next six months.
Outcome: FALSE
The console price cut wasn't enough, as by November, Sony had to cut the price of their developer's kit in half in order to try and win back third party developers.

July 10, 2007
Prediction: Nintendo and Sony will benefit in the coming months from the announcement of Microsoft extending the Xbox 360's warranty (due to unacceptable failure rates).
Outcome: FALSE
Microsoft craftily got around this by dropping the price of their system shortly after the announcements of the extended warranty and Sony dropping their price, so while Sony sold more PS3s than the previous month, the Xbox 360 didn't lose any ground.

Accuracy: 3/10

Piers Harding-Rolls - Screen Digest

December 14, 2006
Prediction: Sony will see a net income of around ¥80 billion by fiscal year end, March 2007.
Outcome: FALSE NOT HIS PREDICTION
Sony's net income for FY2006 was ¥126.3 billion, leaving Harding-Rolls' prediction short by nearly ¥40 billion.

EDIT: Mr. Harding-Rolls contacted me, and clarified that he did not make this prediction, it was Sony's estimate.

October 4, 2007
Prediction: Halo 3 will be a system seller over the next few months.
Outcome: FALSE TOO OPEN TO INTERPRETATION
Halo 3 sold systems, but nothing record breaking. In fact, Holiday 2007 saw sales of the Xbox 360 fall below pre-Halo 3 levels. It might have sold more systems, but not as many as during the same period the previous year.

EDIT: While I interpreted the prediction as Halo 3 improving the sales of the Xbox 360, Mr. Harding-Rolls, has clarified that his prediction does not suggest that, and that it is too difficult to prove whether Halo 3 sold systems over the next few months or not.

December 18, 2007
Prediction: The Wii will win the console battle of Holiday 2007.
Outcome: TRUE
Gee, what a surprise, the Wii outsold the PS3 and the Xbox 360. Over the month of December, the Wii sold a total of 1.35 million units, with the Xbox 360 selling 1.26 million, and Sony claiming they sold 1.2 million.

Piers Harding-Rolls' Future Predictions

December 17, 2007
Prediction: Sony's exclusive content will result in better results for the PS3 in 2008.
Outcome: PROBABLY TRUE
The biggest struggle for the PS3 so far has been a lack of titles, and with upcoming PS3 exclusives announced, including big name series titles likeFinal Fantasy XIII, Gran Turismo 5, and Metal Gear Solid 4, it would be surprising if PS3 sales didn't pick up once these games are released.

December 17, 2007
Prediction: Being "multimedia hubs" is key to Sony and Microsoft's strategies.
Outcome: UNKNOWN
It's likely that this would be part of their marketing strategy, as being a multimedia hub is one thing the best-selling Wii doesn't have. As for whether this is concrete enough to be provable, though, remains uncertain.

December 28, 2007
Prediction: By 2011, sales for the PS3 will have caught up with the Wii, due in part to better games being available in 2008.
Outcome: UNKNOWN
This prediction is so far in the future, it will not only be unprovable for a while, but there is a solid likelihood people will forget about this prediction by the time it comes to fruition (or not).

January 11, 2008
Prediction: 2008 will be a "golden year for games retail."
Outcome: PROBABLY TRUE
There's a decent offering of 2008 games from Nintendo, Sony, and Microsoft, so it's likely that the gaming industry will likely have another strong year. One question, though - what exactly constitutes a "golden year"?

January 11, 2008
Prediction: The reality of PS3 and Xbox 360 as multimedia hubs will happen in the next 12 months.
Outcome: UNKNOWN
At least this multimedia hub thing now has a date, something many of Harding-Rolls' predictions are lacking. It's still too early in the year to say if it will be true, and it really depends on what peripherals and support for the PS3 and Xbox 360 become available, too.

January 11, 2008
Prediction: Good trading conditions for video game stocks will continue in 2008.
Outcome: UNKNOWN
This is a very broad, sweeping statement. With so many video game stocks out there, there will be fluctuations and changes in trading conditions throughout the year, as some publishers, developers, and retailers will have better years than others.

EDIT: The quote refers to retail trading conditions, not stocks.

January 11, 2008
Prediction: 2008 game sales will eclipse 2007 by "a vast some margin."
Outcome: UNKNOWN
Who knows what "a vast margin" is. Millions? Billions? Even if this were provable now, there would be no way to give this a concrete true or false.

Edit to the quote highlighted by Mr. Harding-Rolls.

Accuracy: 1/2, 7 not provable at this time

Billy Pidgeon - IDC

July 27, 2004
Prediction: The N-Gage QD will be a viable SKU in Nokia's line-up six months from now, but not in a year.
Outcome: FALSE
The N-Gage QD was "so popular", that they released the N-Gage QD Silver Edition in August 2005 for Europe, Africa, and the Middle East.

September 29, 2004
Prediction: There is a huge unrealized potential in wireless games, and Jamdat is poised to continue to lead in the sector.
Outcome: TRUE
Jamdat was so impressive to EA, in fact, that EA bought Jamdat to lead its mobile game division.

August 15, 2006
Prediction: World of Warcraft will inspire copycat games, but these will ultimately fail.
Outcome: FALSE
That may have been true, if it weren't for Lord of the Rings Online. While it doesn't have near the same number of subscribers as WoW, LOTRO became the #1 selling PC game in North America and Europe last May, only five months after the release of World of Warcraft: The Burning Crusade.

September 27, 2006
Prediction: Halo 2 will boast an array of capabilities (like the customizable maps and more) that will turn Xbox Live into a YouTube of self-made games.
Outcome: FALSE TRUE (see update below)
At the midway point of December 2007, Microsoft was still pushing for more user created content opportunities, leaving the impression that it's hardly the self-made utopia Pidgeon makes it out to be.

UPDATE: It wasn't widely popularized in news articles, but according to Microsoft's press event at GDC, it was announced that 100,000 Halo 3 films are uploaded every day, 30% more than are uploaded to YouTube. The outcome of this one has definitely changed.

October 19, 2007
Prediction: By the end of 2007, 14 million online console gamers will be active online in North America.
Outcome: FALSE
There are 10 million registered Xbox Live users, and two million registered PSN users, which falls just short of the prediction. There aren't any easily available numbers for the number of online players for the Wii, but that's mostly because there's been limited use of the Wii's online features up to this point, so assuming there would be as many online players as PSN would be far too generous.

October 19, 2007
Prediction: In North America, online console revenue will triple from $133 million in 2006 to $583 million in 2007.
Outcome: NOT ENOUGH INFORMATION
Since this was made so close to the end of the year, there isn't any information available yet to determine if he's right or wrong, but since Mircosoft is putting so much hope in their online gaming service, you have to imagine that it's hoping to bring in an awful lot of money from the online services.

October 19, 2007
Prediction: Video game console software sales through traditional third party online and retail stores will see a 19.5 percent revenue growth over 2006.
Outcome: NOT ENOUGH INFORMATION
Widespread information on online revenue is near-impossible to come by, and therefore cannot be proven at this time.

October 21, 2007
Prediction: By 2008, over 37 million console units will be installed in North America with online capability.
Outcome: FALSE
This is a poorly worded prediction. Since he's talking about games being better than movies, you'd assume he were talking about home consoles, which totaled 19.78 million between the Wii, PS3, and Xbox 360. The number is so low, he can't possibly be talking about that. Throw in the PSP at 10.47 million units and the DS at 17.65 million units, and you total 47.9 million. So Pidgeon is either way over, or way under. We're going to assume he was talking about home consoles, and that makes him wrong.

November 9, 2007
Prediction: The big third party developer winners for Holiday 2007 will be Activision, EA, Ubisoft, and Disney.
Outcome: FALSE
Activision, Electronic Arts, and Ubisoft all had games that placed in the top 10 of December, and were the only three third-party publishers to make it in. Disney, however, did not make that list.

November 9, 2007
Prediction: The biggest sellers for each of the platforms over the holiday will be Mass Effect for Xbox 360, Super Mario Galaxy for Wii, and Ratchet & Clank for PS3.
Outcome: FALSE
The top 10 games list for the holidays didn't see any PS3 games make the list, but the Xbox 360 prediction was wrong, anyway, as Call of Duty 4: Modern Warfare was the top seller for the system.

Accuracy: 2/8, 2 not answerable at this time

We've all seen their work. "Analysts predict PS3 price drop by September." "New DS to be released by Nintendo." "Wii will be the top selling console of 2007." Analysts seem to descend from their mountaintops once a month to tell us the future of the video game industry. So what secret rituals do these soothsayers conduct to get their predictions? And, more importantly, how often are these predictions right?

After a look at ten analysts, 100 predictions, and first hand accounts from video game industry analysts Michael Pachter of Wedbush Morgan Securities and Jesse Divnich of The simExchange, and founder of The simExchange Brian Shiau, we managed to gain a little bit of insight into the murky crystal ball used to prognosticate and pontificate.

So what is an analyst, anyway?
Video game analysis is big bucks. Stocks in gaming companies are bought and sold every day, and traders rely on the advice of analysts of what stock to buy, since many of those who trade stocks don't know much about the game companies or consoles themselves.

"Because most investors can choose from 12,000 different stocks, few are very well-versed in any specific stock," Pachter said. "Equity analysts cover around 15 stocks, and because the number is limited, the analysts are able to know everything about the stocks that they cover. That makes them 'experts', and their knowledge is valued by institutional investors."

Traditional analysts such as Pachter collect all the information they can about the companies they cover and their products, quantify that information through number crunching and spreadsheets, then present models and predictions to their clients in meetings and through reports. These traditional analysts are more concerned with companies as a whole, not with specific games. Games are only relevant in terms of how much revenue they will generate for a company.

A variation on this kind of analyst is the research analyst, like Billy Pidgeon. In a GameTrailers TV interview with Geoff Keighley, Pidgeon explains that as a research analyst looks at the historical sales data of consoles and games, and from that makes predictions about trends, the install base for consoles, and increasingly the future of online gaming. Research analysts compile this data into reports, which are then sold to other analysts. Pachter says that the audience for a research analyst is anyone who is interested in the video game industry sales, while his audience is primarily investors.

The simExchange works differently, and instead uses a prediction market. Divnich bases his forecasts for the industry on the trading of fictitious stocks in games and consoles by over 8,000 members of the website. Stock traders of The simExchange base their decision on three video game factors: global lifetime sales, US monthly sales, and metacritic rating, which summarizes how favorably the game reviewing community received the title. Anyone can join The simExchange.

"It looks like it may be a bunch of people who aren't very informed," Brian Shiau of The simExchange said, "but what happens in the prediction market is people are putting their money where their mouth is."

The main qualifications necessary to become a more traditional analyst are mostly business-based and not so much about video game experience, although a healthy appreciation for gaming definitely helps.

"At a minimum, most equity research analysts have either an MBA or a CFA designation," Pachter said. "Beyond that, there are no hard and fast qualifications."

Reputation and accuracy in fact seem to be what matters most in becoming a good analyst.

"Believe it or not, the qualifications are pretty low," Divnich said. "You just need to have a strong understanding of both the video game industry and financial markets. If you have that, it simply takes a lot of hard work to prove yourself among your peers and if you are truly good at what you do, advancements will fall in your favor."

What we wanted to find
With analysts handing out predictions about every gaming system and many of the top games, you have to wonder how often they actually get it right. We did. So Kotaku went on a mission: Find ten analysts, find predictions for each of them, and prove them right or wrong. Simple, right? Actually, easier said than done.

While some analysts make concrete predictions, such as how much money a game will make in the US for a specific month, other analysts seem to dwell more in the realm of hazy, undefinable predictions. This latter group make predictions that are very general, or they make predictions that won't be provable for another few years - at which point, their prediction will probably be long forgotten.

For the study, we looked at ten different analysts:

• 
  
• - Michael Pachter, Wedbush Morgan Securities
• 
  
• - Colin Sebastian, Lazard Capital Markets
• 
  
• - Piers Harding-Rolls, Screen Digest
• 
  
• - Jesse Divnich, The simExchange
• 
  
• - Evan Wilson, Pacific Crest Securities
• 
  
• - Mike Hickey, Janco Partners
• 
  
• - Jeetil Patel, Deutsche Bank
• 
  
• - Mitsuhiro Osawa, Mizuho Investors Securities Co.
• 
  
• - Richard Doherty, Envisioneering Group
• 
  
• - Billy Pidgeon, IDC
• 
  

Osawa also proved an interesting anomaly for the group, as he does not cover video game companies exclusively, like a number of other analysts. He didn't make ten predictions about video games specifically, but he did make predictions about other technologies, including televisions, digital cameras, and photocopiers.

The Results

No analyst was completely wrong, but no analyst was completely right, either. Billy Pidgeon was the lowest scoring of the analysts, with only one out of seven of his provable predictions correct (meaning even if all of his predictions were provable, he wouldn't be able to score higher than four out of ten predictions right, still at the low end of the results).

The highest-ranking analysts (still with only six out of ten) were Pachter, Patel, and Osawa, but that doesn't necessarily mean they were the best at predicting overall. Both Patel and Osawa made very generalized predictions that had a greater chance of being correct. For example, while some analysts gave dates for when they suspected the PS3 price cut was coming, Osawa simply said that a price cut would be one option to help the system's sales. Likewise with Patel, who said the price cut wouldn't happen until at least April 2007, meaning the July 2007 price cut the PS3 saw still qualified Patel's prediction as being true.

The one surprising exception to this rule was Pachter. Pachter's predictions were very specific, such as pushing GTA IV's release back by a year, and John Woo wanting to make more video games. But being right most isn't what Pachter says matters most to him.

"None of my predictions are correct, but most are close," Pachter said. "The nature of my work is like a game of horseshoes, where close counts."

Divnich also says that the exact accuracy of predictions isn't what really matters in the video game prediction business.

"There really is no good percentage, just try to be more right than your peers," Divnich said.

Divnich also explains why some of the predictions are so hard to prove true and false.

"You really can't put predictions in those terms since most of the time we are predicting a series of events and not just numerical predictions," Divnich said.

The events that these analysts predict on are generally fairly common. One of the more popular predictions was when the PS3 price drop would happen: Michael Pachter, Jesse Divnich, Evan Wilson, and Mitsuhiro Osawa all voiced an opinion on when and whether or not the PS3 would drop in price. Pachter's prediction of a price drop in the 80 GB model as supplies of the 60 GB model dried up came true, while Wilson's suggestion that the price cut of the PS3 wouldn't happen any time soon was made just four days before Sony announced the price drop on July 9.

Most of the predictions analysts make are about the NPD sales data that gets released each month, forecasting how well they think the companies in their portfolio will do. Hardware sales are of particular interest to analysts, so industry changes that may affect the console war, such as many studios going Blu-Ray exclusive, will impact what an analyst thinks of a product and it's company.

What's most interesting about all the predictions, though, is that the best analyst isn't necessarily the person who makes the most correct predictions. Some analysts make more complex predictions than others, so it's more impressive to see an analyst who is only short by a little bit on their numeric predictions than an analyst who is correct more often on very general predictions. In terms of the worst, analyst Evan Wilson made predictions that were either very general and easy to call, or outlandish and would be shocking if they came true. In November 2007, Wilson claimed that Nintendo had a new DS redesign ready for when the sales of the DS Lite began to taper off. Nintendo quickly quashed this claim, leaving Wilson out to dry. Wilson also claimed that EA would drop the price of 14 of its sports titles over the holidays, but once again, there was no truth to this prediction.

One of the best analysts overall turned out to be Colin Sebastian. While he only got 4 out of 10 predictions right, he made strong predictions with figures, many of which were quite close. He predicted that Activision's Q3 sales figures would double, and was very close (going from $142.8 million in 2006 to $272.2 million in 2007). He predicted that there would be a shortage of Xbox 360s over the holidays, but it turned out the effect of that shortage didn't turn up until January-February of this year. He predicted that Halo 3 would generate $200 million very quickly, and while it didn't reach that number on the first day, it did hit $300 million by the end of the week. If being close is the name of the game, then Sebastian is certainly one of the top analysts to watch.

What's in it for me?
So if the predictions are mostly for people with stock, and the analysts don't think it matters if they're particularly accurate, what are gamers supposed to get out of all these analyst predictions?

"Global lifetime sales seem to interest a lot of gamers," Shiau said. "We find a lot of gamers care about how the product sells, even if they aren't investors, or working in the industry,"

Beyond having a passing interest, there is one major reason why gamers should be interested in these results.

"You don't need analysts, but investors do," Pachter said. "The companies that make the games [Kotaku] readers enjoy need capital in order to develop those games. Investors provide that capital. Without analysts, there would be lower demand for video game stocks, share prices would be lower, and compensation would be lower for the developers. That means lower quality games, and [Kotaku] readers would be unhappy. So in a perverse way, equity research analysts make it possible for publishers to make great games."

At the end of the day, gamers shouldn't be relying on analysts for all their video game information. But they also don't need to. Analysts are there for one reason: money. Most gamers have an interest in how well games do because, like Pachter says, without funding great games won't be made. However how much money a game makes won't change whether or not it's fun to play: that's always left up to interpretation.

Check back Friday for a full break down of the 100 predictions and how they fared.

New management appears to us to be sincere, but we think it is important to state the obvious: they are new. They have not managed a business like this one in an environment like this, and we don't see them making tough decisions fast enough to deliver upside to the low end of company guidance...We are somewhat surprised that there were not staff reductions following the abysmal performance of All-Pro Football, especially after keeping the development team occupied with that game a full two years after competitor Electronic Arts signed an NFL exclusive

GTA IV is No 'Panacea' for Take-Two, says Analyst [gamedaily]

Trust me, Electronic Arts, when they threw out the 300 million [for Bioware and Pandemic]—that is multiplatform—that is not 360 only...It has to [come to PS3], I wouldn't be shocked if Mass Effect 1 came to PlayStation 3.

Bonus Round (video interview) [via PSU]

"I don't think that this is an issue of dissatisfaction with Take-Two; rather, I think it is rational to believe that in the wake of the $850 million Pandemic/BioWare deal, high quality developers like Bungie and [Rockstar] North would look to test their market value"

Pachter: GTA Dev Rockstar North May Eventually 'Pull a Bungie,' Split from Take-Two [Shacknews]

These figures imply that Microsoft will sell 1.5 mi