<![CDATA[Kotaku: never tell me the odds]]> http://tags.kotaku.com/assets/base/img/thumbs140x140/kotaku.com.png <![CDATA[Kotaku: never tell me the odds]]> http://kotaku.com/tag/nevertellmetheodds http://kotaku.com/tag/nevertellmetheodds <![CDATA[E3 2008 Predictions: How'd We Do?]]> Let's just say we shant be getting any job offers to be Michael Pachter's trusted aide, as our incorrect guesses about what we thought we'd see at E3 this year grossly outnumbered our correct ones. In our defense, we cast a wide net with our E3 '08 predictions, with some clearly outrageous bets that were ground more in fantasy than reality. Plus, E3 sucked.

While we were surprised to see a lack of X-waggle and to learn that Kid Icarus was a no-show, that Duffy performance clearly came out of nowhere. Hit the jump for the final tally and keep your eyes peeled for the winner — and possible tie-breaker — of our E3 Fantasy Betting Pool contest. Woot!

Microsoft shows off new Xbox 360 user interface
The Redmond giant announced the new, Cover Flow-like dashboard at its press conference, dubbing it the New Xbox Experience. Reaction was mixed, but as an anti-fan of the current, hideous Vegas-strip look and feel, I welcomed it with open arms.

Microsoft announces Avatars, its own version of the Mii
We obviously knew about Avatars weeks in advance of E3, thanks to the tissue-thin security at marketing research company Intellisponse. We even knew what they looked like. It's doubtful that if we hadn't gotten an early preview, we'd have cared about the new feature any more than we do right now.

At least one celebrity calls one of the music games shown off on stage by the wrong name.
Unfortunately for the Viacom folks who gave The Who a huge sum of money to play the Rock Band party at the Orpheum, Pete Townshend confused the game with its main competitor, the Guitar Hero series. An honest mistake!

Don Mattrick will not sport Peter Moore style tattoos
We didn't see any. Did you?

Grand Theft Auto IV spin-off for Nintendo DS and/or PSP announced.
One of the titles Nintendo touted as core focused was Rockstar Games' Grand Theft Auto: Chinatown Wars, a portable side story set in Liberty City. And it was merely announced, with nothing but a logo on display.

Nintendo will fail to announce a storage device for Wii, enraging the hardcore with another jovial, upbeat mass-market presentation including at least one head-scratcher peripheral.
Storage device? Nope. Jovial, upbeat mass-market presentation? Check. Head-scratcher peripheral? Wii MotionPlus might fit the bill, especially if you're a developer who wasted many man hours programming motion detection routines that can now be done with hardware.

One awkward, surprise celebrity walk-on will spawn its own internet meme for the coming age.
It may be a stretch to describe portions of Nintendo's media briefing as meme-spawning, but we're never going to forget the animated GIFs of DJ Ravi Drums wailing away on the air drums with Wii Music.

Finally, this one — Animal Crossing Wii gets stuffed animals with virtual keycodes — was almost correct, as Ubisoft announced that Petz branded stuffed animal with virtual keycodes, unlocking breeds in-game were due to be released. We take no pride in being almost right when it comes to Petz related topics.

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<![CDATA[Kotaku's E3 2008 Predictions]]> That burning sensation you're feeling? It's E3 Fever! With just days to go before the event kicks off formally, speculation is running rampant. Publishers are revealing their line-ups, console manufacturer figureheads are getting their last-minute chemical peels and Ubisoft is scrambling to fit all of its Petz offerings in a 100 square foot allocation at the Los Angeles Convention Center.

And we're making our own guesses about what we'll be seeing from Microsoft, Nintendo and Sony at their respective media briefings. Some things, like X-waggle, a new Animal Crossing and another appearance from PlayStation Home are practically guaranteed. But what surprises will companies like EA, Sega, Take-Two and Capcom bring?

We've thought long, hard and then, harder once more, to nail down our best guesses on what we can expect from E3 2008. Hit the jump for our laser precise insight into what we'll be treated to next week.

Brian Crecente
Home dated and Home game rooms for titles like Resistance and Warhawk detailed (4:1)
Microsoft announces motion controller which will be sold bundled with a game. (4:1)
Microsoft shows off new Xbox 360 user interface (2:1)
Microsoft announces Avatars, its own version of the Mii (1:1)
Microsoft announces new bundle that features white Xbox 360, motion controller and game. (10:1)
Animal Crossing Wii gets stuffed animals with virtual keycodes. (100:1)
EA Take-Two merger unveiled. (10:1)
EA Takes on Bungie as a label partner. (20:1)
Bungie’s answer to Mario unveiled (2:1)
At least one celebrity calls one of the music games shown off on stage by the wrong name. (5:1)

Brian Ashcraft
Nintendo will say "We haven't forgotten the core gamer" at its press conference at least three times (5:1)
Square Enix will announce "Kingdom Hearts 3" for the Xbox 360 (10:1)
Don Mattrick will not sport Peter Moore style tattoos (2:1)
Nintendo will announce Animal Crossing Wii, and there will be no voice support (4:1)
Kaz Hirai will wear a pink shirt at the Sony presser (10:1)
Microsoft will announce a Blu-ray add-on (50:1)

Michael McWhertor
Nintendo announces Factor 5 developed Kid Icarus for Wii, spares us a Wii Bow peripheral. (4:1)
Ninja Blade announced as one of the first games to take advantage the new Xbox 360 motion controller. (10:1)
Smaller, cheaper PlayStation 3 announced for 2008 release (10:1)
Grand Theft Auto IV spin-off for Nintendo DS and/or PSP announced. (10:1)
Steven Spielberg's "PQRS" revealed for Xbox 360 and PlayStation 3. (8:1)
Sega reveals plans to bring Jet Set Radio, Alex Kidd and Typing of the Dead sequels to various platforms. (100:1)

Mike Fahey
PlayStation 2 titles downloadable for PS3. (10:1)
The Xbox 360 gets a web browser. (20:1)
Microsoft announces the Zune Store integration for the Xbox 360. (50:1)
Nintendo Wii gets a workable online service. (100:1)
Sony debuts break-apart motion controller, Nintendo fans break internet laughing (25:1)
Nintendo reveals Mario first-person shooter for the hardcore gamer. (100:1)

Leigh Alexander
We will see more than one new title featuring a with tough-as-nails, strong female protagonist. (2:1)
Nintendo will fail to announce a storage device for Wii, enraging the hardcore with another jovial, upbeat mass-market presentation including at least one head-scratcher peripheral. (4:1)
At least one more major publisher will announce it is developing or porting iPhone games. (2:1)
One awkward, surprise celebrity walk-on will spawn its own internet meme for the coming age. (10:1)
A new Nintendo DS will be unveiled, featuring an accelerometer and a camera. (10:1)
Sega will at last announce a true Sonic platformer, with no lame friends, no creepy love scenes, and no werewolves. (100:1)

Luke Plunkett
Peter Jackson Halo game shown off, people seem confused (3:1)
Pandemic will get around to announcing their sandbox Batman title, will look very dark (2:1)
Someone, somewhere, will spill that Metal Gear Solid 4 will be coming to 360 and PC (4:1)
Microsoft presser dominated by unveiling of a motion controller, will be supported by at least one Viva Pinata game and at least one Raving Rabbids game. (4:1)
BioWare's KOTOR MMO is shown for the first time. Won't be called KOTOR 3. (8:1)

Owen Good
The Conduit gets a publisher. (10:1)
Retro game suite a la Atari 2600 collection announced for the iPhone (20:1)
The Beatles coming to a rhythm game, maybe announcing a new one. (50:1)
It's announced than an FPS using Wii Balance Board under dev. (75:1)
We're given a sneak peek at some DLC upcoming for GTA IV. (25:1)
Lucasarts no longer handling its unnamed Indiana Jones action game. (10:1)

In the next few hours, we'll be opening up the betting pool for predictions in a follow up post, so start reading over our best guesses, compare them to our odds and get ready to participate in the E3 2008 Kotaku Fantasy Betting Pool. Oh, and make sure you read the rules!

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<![CDATA[Our E3 Predictions]]> We're less than a week away from E3 2007, with Microsoft's press conference scheduled to start the festivities formally on Tuesday July 10 at 8:30 PM PDT. Sony and Nintendo reveal their secrets the following morning with further announcements spread out through the week. With E307 a vastly different affair from the show's previous incarnation as an orgy of sights, sounds, smells and off-duty strippers, the all-new, all-business E3 is expected to have an understated showing. But that doesn't mean Sony, Microsoft, Nintendo and a host of third parties won't be bringing their big guns.

Our predictions—some lofty, some pure fantasy, some grounded in rumor and reality—are after the jump.

Each of the editors thought long and as hard as their individual brains are capable of, tapping their predictive mental prowess, buffing their crystal balls, shaking their magic eightballs and calling upon their video game business savvy to provide an early outlook on next week's announcements. In alphabetical order:

BRIAN ASHCRAFT

  • Nintendo will show off its peripheral storage device. (2:1)
  • Reggie will unveil his new catch phrase. (10:1)
  • Sony will show off a new PSP redesign. The new portable will be called the PSSP (PlayStation Slim Portable). (2:1)
  • Microsoft will announce Metal Gear Solid 4 for the Xbox 360. Peter Moore will sport a MGS4 tattoo on his forehead. His wife will divorce him. (5:1)

BRIAN CRECENTE

SCEA

  • A PSP online game and media store are detailed, perhaps launched. (5:1)
  • PLAYSTATION 3 gets a price drop. (2:1)
  • Additional Home details announced. (2:1)
  • Killzone 2 will be playable. (2:1)
  • Quantic Dream's PS3 exclusive game details are revealed. (2:1)
  • Full SOCOM 4 is announced. (10:1)
  • New game from Fumito Ueda revealed. (20:1)
  • Metal Gear Solid 4 will be playable. (10:1)

Microsoft

  • Big XBLA announcement. (2:1)
  • Xbox 360 gets a price drop. (4:1)
  • Xbox branded portable is announced. (20:1)
  • More Zune functionality added to Xbox 360. (5:1)
  • More GTA IV details revealed. (2:1)
  • Live Anywhere shown off. (3:1)
  • Peter Jackson game details announced. (8:1)

Nintendo

  • Wii with DVD playability announced. (5:1)
  • Mario Kart for Wii announced. (4:1)
  • Super Smash Bros. Brawl details and dated. (2:1)
  • New Nintendo DS redesign. (20:1)
  • TGS showing by Nintendo announcement. (4:1)
  • WiiWare games announced. (2:1)

MIKE FAHEY

  • Once again, Aztecs will be completely overlooked as a major villain grouping for a video game. (2:1)
  • A World War II shooter will be shown. (1:1)
  • A SEGA rep will finally crack, tearfully admitting that the real Sonic the Hedgehog was killed in 1999, replaced by Bubsy the Bobcat with hair extensions. (100:1)
  • Someone is gonna get shown some Pokemans, bitches. (1:1)
  • Reggie, Peter, and Phil...did somebody say group hug? (1000000:1)

MICHAEL MCWHERTOR

  • Konami finally gets around to announcing GuitarFreaks and DrumMania for North America. (5:1)
  • Sega announces Sega Vintage Collection for Xbox Live Arcade. (2:1)
  • PLAYSTATION 3 $100 price cut announced, goes into effect the following week. (4:1)
  • First Steven Spielberg/EA co-developed game for Wii revealed. (2:1)
  • New Wii channel shown. (10:1)
  • SIXAXIS with rumble announced. (3:1)
  • Game Boy and Game Boy Advance games added to Virtual Console. (10:1)
  • Capcom finally shows off Lost Planet Colonies for Xbox 360, PC and PLAYSTATION 3. (2:1)
  • Tecmo shows Ninja Gaiden 2 for Xbox 360 and Dead Or Alive for PS3. (5:1)
  • Nintendo announces new Wii game starring Wario. (10:1)
  • PlayStation Store redesign shown. (10:1)
  • Peter Moore eschews tattoos for tasteful body jewelry sporting an MGS 4 dog tag. (500:1)

LUKE PLUNKETT

  • Home is shown again, and announced as being delayed until 08. (10:1)
  • PLAYSTATION 3 gets a price-cut. (3:1)
  • Mario Kart Wii is revealed, with silly Wii Remote control scheme that has a lot of people concerned. (2:1)
  • Nintendo shows off games that actually make proper use of Wii/DS interconnectivity. The world holds its collective breath for Pictionary. (5:1)
  • Dead Rising 2 blows our collective socks off (Yes, we must see socks ejected from feet without voluntarily removal.—Ed.). (500:1)

MARK WILSON

  • Nintendo will unveil its expanded DS to Wii connectivity, assembling its two monster systems with Voltron domination. Miis will fit in your pocket. (4:1)
  • Sony will attempt to completely rebrand the system from PS3 to the Sony Home System, focusing on streaming video and other PSHom3 media sharing. (100:1)
  • Perrin Kaplan and Matt Casamassina will kiss for the first time (in public) on stage at Nintendo's press conference. They will use tongue. (1000000:1)
  • Microsoft announces Zune 2. (50:1)

In the next hour, we'll be opening up the betting pool for predictions in a follow up post, so start reading over our best guesses, compare them to our odds and get ready to participate in the E3 2007 Kotaku Fantasy Betting Pool. Oh, and make sure you read the rules!

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