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mike hickey

feature

Analyzing the Analysts, Episode Two


Monday's feature took a broad, anecdotal look at ten different analysts, explaining a little about who the analysts are and what they do. For your enjoyment and discussion, we present to you today all of the predictions made by the analysts and our verdict on each of them.

There's been some changes to these results since the original article was released on Monday, due to the availability of new information. While this does change some of the numbers, it also indicates how fluid many of these predictions are, and the challenge of pin-pointing exact answers for many of them, both for journalists, traders who rely on the analysts for smart business choices, and gamers who want to know how well the industry is doing.

Here's the proof that being correct the most often doesn't always mean you're the best analyst.

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feature

Analyzing the Analysts, Episode One

We've all seen their work. "Analysts predict PS3 price drop by September." "New DS to be released by Nintendo." "Wii will be the top selling console of 2007." Analysts seem to descend from their mountaintops once a month to tell us the future of the video game industry. So what secret rituals do these soothsayers conduct to get their predictions? And, more importantly, how often are these predictions right?

After a look at ten analysts, 100 predictions, and first hand accounts from video game industry analysts Michael Pachter of Wedbush Morgan Securities and Jesse Divnich of The simExchange, and founder of The simExchange Brian Shiau, we managed to gain a little bit of insight into the murky crystal ball used to prognosticate and pontificate.

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playstation 3

Analyst: Sony Dropping PS3 80GB Due To Poor Sales; NPD: LOL! No.

Amid rumors that Sony is planning on dropping the 80GB model of the PlayStation 3, instead allegedly focusing solely on its backwards compatibility-free 40GB model, comes speculation from industry analyst Mike Hickey of Janco Partners as to why. He tells GameDaily "A recessionary environment will likely punctuate the 80GB version's relative and absolute retail sales disappointment" pointing to the lower-priced 40GB model as having better "traction" with consumers.

Not necessarily, says the NPD Group, who later told GameDaily that the $100 more expensive 80GB model outsold its lower-end sibling last quarter. The more pricey package may have been more attractive to buyers because of its pack-in software, but still shoots a sizable hole in the theory that the more feature rich PS3 is languishing.

My inner analyst thinks Sony is either keen to introduce another top-tier model, sans Playstation 2 playing capabilities, not wanting the current 80 gigger around to make it even more confusing. Back in your cage, inner analyst.

Sony Ditching 80GB PS3 Due to Poor Sales, says analyst [GameDaily]