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Michael Pachter
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console wars
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Pachter: Microsoft Doesn't Need To Be First, Just Rich
We're perpetually interested in the three-way. Because the Microsoft, Nintendo, and Sony multi-billion dollar pillow fight that is the console wars makes for interesting news and highly combustible fanboy fuel. But analyst Michael Pachter feels that Microsoft shouldn't pay so much attention."I personally think that, with a lot of respect for the Microsoft guys...I think they're foolish to even worry about who's first and who's second. I think that's just stupid.Stupid?? But I only own a 360 and my street cred is fast-approaching the drain! More »
analysts
Pachter Predicts Wii Fit Win
Wedbush Morgan's gaming guru Michael Pachter sees big things for Nintendo's Wii Fit in North America, where the combination personal trainer and balance board are slated for a May 19th release. The analyst predicts the package could sell upwards of 4 million units if Nintendo does it up right.
"I really don't know what the spend will be, but it could be 10 - 12% of projected sales. If we assume a retail price of $100, that's $10 million in marketing for each 1 million units sold. If they go mainstream (have Oprah demo the device), I could see them selling 3 - 4 million, maybe more. That suggests the potential for $30 - 40 million in marketing.]In fact, Pachter says that Nintendo of America President Reggie Fils-Aime himself indicated that they plan to back the title with the biggest marketing campaign in the company's history. If I were to speculate I'd probably aim for a more conservative number, but then again my financial analysis experience is limited to predicting whether or not a charge for pizza will clear before my paycheck, and even then I am usually wrong. I wonder if Pachter does requests?
Update: Pachter informed us that the New York Post writer never spoke to him and misquoted the article's original Game Daily source. Updated text accordingly.
Report: Nintendo Planning 'Biggest Ever' Marketing for Wii Fit Launch [GameDaily]
nintendo
Pachter: Wii Shortage? Blame The Lousy US Dollar
Wedbush Morgan analyst and Kotaku reader idol Michael Pachter went on record with the Dallas News with his theory on one reason it's still so damn hard to find a Wii. The United States dollar, he's paraphrased as saying, is so limp, that Nintendo is shipping excess consoles to Europe to meet demand there, squeezing out a bit of extra profit when all is said and done. It's not like Nintendo is completely abandoning American gamers—it sold 432,000 Wiis in February—it may just be allocating stock to its first class customer base.
Don't despair, though, if you're holding a copy of Brawl with nothing to play it on. Mr. Pachter thinks that with European demand leveling off, Nintendo may shift some of those Wiis Stateside. Stop burning your Euros in protest, please. It'll just breed contempt.
Wii shortage may finally be near an end [Dallas News - thanks, Brian!]
wii fit
Pachter: Nintendo Planning A Wii Fit-zkrieg
In a note to investors Wedbush Morgan analyst Michael Pachter says that Nintendo of America is planning to pitch Wii Fit to American consumers with "the biggest marketing campaign in its history." We're pretty sure that means that you, core gamer, won't be able to go anywhere without being surrounded by Wii Fit and the millions of physically fit humans that will ultimately result from its success. More »
mobile gaming
Analyst: iPhone Not A Viable Gaming Platform
Playing Super Monkey Ball and Spore on the iPhone sure sounds like a nifty diversion, but is a $400 mobile device really going to be a success as a gaming platform? Not if Wedbush Morgan analyst Michael Pachter's perspective on new ventures from Sega, EA and THQ is spot on. He tells Next-Gen "To the extent that hip, rich people are an interesting gaming audience, iPhone games will work" adding that the demographic will probably "only interested in the most rudimentary games, and that the market will be small."
Maybe he's right. I'm still in the honeymoon phase with my iPhone, but my hype level for using the accelerometer to game is on par with the prospect of further SIXAXIS gaming. That's hovering around zilch, currently.
pachter
Analyst Predicts Death Of 360 In Japan
Sony may be worried following the 360 price drop in Europe, but according to Wedbush Morgan analyst Michael Pachter, they don't have much to be concerned about. In fact, Pachter predicts that the PS3 will beat out the Xbox 360 in Japan ("killing" it) and Europe (by 20%-40%). He also says that the PS3 may pull ahead of the Xbox 360 in month-on-month sales:
"In the US, I think it will be close all year, with 360 outselling PS3 most months due to its lower price points (at least as long as it remains lower priced)," Pachter told videogaming247. "Sony gains a huge competitive advantage when HD monitor sales pick up at holiday, as I expect retailers to push PS3 as a Blu-ray player to anyone buying an HD monitor. By year-end, I think PS3 will outsell the 360 in the US by a little."Seems to me that 2008 is shaping up to be an interesting year in the battle of the consoles! Now, we just have to wait and see if Pachter is on the money...
Pachter on late 2008: "PS3 will likely outsell the 360 in Europe by 20%-40%, and will kill 360 in Japan" [videogaming247, via GamePro]
analysts
Pachter: EA Wants Take-Two For Sports, GTAIV Is "Gravy"
We've already heard EA's story recounting why they're interested in acquiring Take-Two, but analyst Michael Pachter gives the real scoop. And unlike many have claimed, Take-Two's appeal has very little to do with GTAIV, which he calls "gravy." It's all about the sports.
For EA, sports is enough to pay for the whole [$2 billion] thing. If you get rid of sports competition, you suddenly add Take Two's $200 million per year in sports revenue and EA doesn't compete on price anymore.Wait...this is sounding a lot like a monopoly, isn't it Mr. Pachter? More »
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Analyzing the Analysts, Episode Two
Monday's feature took a broad, anecdotal look at ten different analysts, explaining a little about who the analysts are and what they do. For your enjoyment and discussion, we present to you today all of the predictions made by the analysts and our verdict on each of them.
There's been some changes to these results since the original article was released on Monday, due to the availability of new information. While this does change some of the numbers, it also indicates how fluid many of these predictions are, and the challenge of pin-pointing exact answers for many of them, both for journalists, traders who rely on the analysts for smart business choices, and gamers who want to know how well the industry is doing.
Here's the proof that being correct the most often doesn't always mean you're the best analyst.
12:00 PM on Fri Feb 22 2008
By torif
4,694 views,
30 comments
Latest by NetStockAnalyst: From Yahoo's message board: A most interesting fact about the top quoted analyst of this industry is that he happens to likely have the worst track record of advising on stocks - stocks which, for the most part have outperformed the more »
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Analyzing the Analysts, Episode One
We've all seen their work. "Analysts predict PS3 price drop by September." "New DS to be released by Nintendo." "Wii will be the top selling console of 2007." Analysts seem to descend from their mountaintops once a month to tell us the future of the video game industry. So what secret rituals do these soothsayers conduct to get their predictions? And, more importantly, how often are these predictions right?
After a look at ten analysts, 100 predictions, and first hand accounts from video game industry analysts Michael Pachter of Wedbush Morgan Securities and Jesse Divnich of The simExchange, and founder of The simExchange Brian Shiau, we managed to gain a little bit of insight into the murky crystal ball used to prognosticate and pontificate.
12:00 PM on Mon Feb 18 2008
By torif
23,157 views,
65 comments
Latest by Brackynews: @Datheron: Bravo, you've just invoked the "million monkeys" clause in our contract. You're spot on, it doesn't matter who gets it right, SOMEBODY will, what matters is what voice YOU decide to listen to before dropping 30-large of your more »
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Pachter: GTA IV Earnings Are Over-Estimated, Recommends Layoffs
Our own favorite Wedbush Morgan analyst Michael Pachter doesn't want the holiday spirit entering the veins of Take-Two employees just yet, because he's clarified to investors that GTA IV, while sure to be a success, is no "panacea" (word deriving from the Greek goddess of cures) for the company, much because the game itself will require so much money to promote and launch. So close to the popular Christian holiday, we'd have preferred a more timely and fitting allusion to religious healing figures, but we'll honestly take whatever Michael "Mythology Buff Scrooge" Pachter gives us. He also took a shot at management while reiterating his "sell" rating on Take-Two stock.
calling it
Pachter: Mass Effect Will Come to PS3
Mass Effect is Xbox 360 exclusive? Nope, not anymore (though technically, still yes). Analyst Michael Pachter has spoken. And when he speaks, mountains move and plans change.
Trust me, Electronic Arts, when they threw out the 300 million [for Bioware and Pandemic]—that is multiplatform—that is not 360 only...It has to [come to PS3], I wouldn't be shocked if Mass Effect 1 came to PlayStation 3.It's tough to believe that any series (save for Halo) would stay Xbox 360 exclusive in the modern industry. But if Bioware is making a trilogy, then the porting would have to be outsourced...which probably isn't impossible for EA.
Bonus Round (video interview) [via PSU]
sales
Wii and Xbox 360 Close In December
Pach attack! Analyst Michael Pachter is predicting a very close December in console sales. Based upon Thanksgiving figures in which the Wii edged out the 360, Pachter predicts the Wii winning December, but by the narrowest of margins:
These figures imply that Microsoft will sell 1.5 million Xbox 360s in December in the U.S., that Nintendo will sell 1.7 million Wiis, and that Sony will sell around 800,000 PS3s.Wow these figures are close. But I wonder what these projections would look like if Nintendo had no production limits...if only you had a slightly different, parallel dimension when you needed one.
Wii and Xbox 360 Sales Neck and Neck in December, says Analyst [gamedaily] [image]
pachter watch
Pachter Predicts Pair Of Guitar Hero Expansions In 2008
Wedbush Morgan analyst and all-powerful seer Michael Pachter has weighed in on the future of Guitar Hero. He and his analyst buddies are receiving messages from the ether that tell them the franchise will move over 7 million copies in 2007, dropping to 6.3 million the following year. How will Activision and RedOctane keep pace? By issuing a pair of expansion packs!
The spirit world gave no indication what those expansion may be, according to Gamespot's account, but several hints have been dropped over the past year. Rumors of an Aerosmith dominated sequel were bandied about this fall, with hints of multiple themed discs whispered long before that. While lofty plans for a half-dozen Guitar Hero collections in 2007 didn't come to fruition, those discs dedicated to Country and Metal genres may still be in the works.
Analyst: Guitar Hero series to sell 7M in '07, two expansions coming [Gamespot]
pachterwatch
October Software Sales Predicted Up 50%
Michael "Mad Hoodie" Pachter is calling it again. This time, he's predicting the NPD to announce that software sales have increased 50% from October of last year. In hard numbers that means he's calling October 2007 to have $555 million ins sales, up from $369 million October 2006. The even better news is that most of this $555 million would be new money, with $425 million of it from 360, PS3, Wii, PSP and the DS. But the juiced-up numbers will mostly be attributed to one game...place your bets now... More »
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Analyst Puts 360 First For September, Wii Second
Nintendo has dominated summer NPD sales charts with its Nintendo DS and Wii platforms, but can Master Chief and his band of merry alien goofball buddies raise the Xbox 360 to September's sales throne? Based on Wedbush Morgan analyst Michael Pachter's (who?) estimates of some 450,000 Halo 3 playing devices, it's a definitely estimated "yes." It's all part of a big, big September that could indicate a 47% increase over last year. Yay for profit! More »
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Pachter: Sony to Pricedrop-Cockblock Halo 3?
Everyone's favorite Wedbush Morgan analyst Michael Pachter thinks that there is a good chance of Sony announcing a 40GB PS3 and a $99 PS2 at TGS.
Both of these ideas have merit...[and] we cannot think of a better forum for making such an announcement, given that the event is less than a week before the launch of archrival Microsoft's Halo 3.While there's no doubt that pricedrops and cheaper (but non-gimped) SKUs could help spur Sony's sales, I'm not sure if there's any good time to make a videogame announcement that's Halo 3 time. I mean, unless you can get a cheap PS3 on a Taco Bell cup or something...and then get it running Halo 3.
Pachter: Halo To Sell 3 Million In 12 Days, $99 PS2? [gamasutra]
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