The study goes on to conclude that the $20 billion dollar PC gaming market, predicted to rise to $34 billion by 2011, was bigger, worth more money, was growing faster and had better tech than the console market could provide. Okay then! PC gamers in one corner, console gamers in the other. Ready, fight!

Study Claims PC Market is the Largest [Edge]

Well, that's all well and good, but a different gaggle of experts (Juniper Research, this time) are casting worried glances at the non-iPhone end of the market. Apparently Java game development has "flatlined across North America and Western Europe," although the quoted jump from $5.4 billion in 2008 to more than $10 billion by 2013 doesn't sound that flatliney.

Ironically, it could be the iPhone's fault. "The revenue share offered by Apple to games publishers is incredibly attractive," said the report, "The danger is that if operators do not respond with a similar business model, publishers faced with low margins may simply exit Java completely"

Sales of mobile games have "flatlined" - report [GamesIndustry.biz]

The current market is estimated to be worth 4.43 billion yuan (around $645 million), and with no predicted slowdowns, one wonders what we'll be seeing this time next year (or even fourth quarter of '08). And with companies like Perfect World making a foray into Western markets, we'll just have to wait and see where China's industry is heading long-term.

China market: 2Q08 online gaming services valued at 4.43 billion yuan [Digitimes via GamesIndustry.biz]

Prior to EA, Gray founded Heavy Iron, which was sold to THQ in 1999 and now serves as the primary studio creating the publisher's Pixar tie-in titles. Before that, Gray directed Parasite Eve for Square, and ran EA's software tools group and motion capture lab for the publisher during its original PlayStation era.

FerryGames says Gray will oversee not only its Secret Online franchise and upcoming expansion packs War of Heroes and Qin Warriors, but also its forthcoming casual products due summer 2009: the music, dance, catwalk and social network title codenamed Project Super, and massively online third person shooter codenamed X-Fire.

I'm personally very excited to see where the Chinese market is headed and how the gaming landscape is going to be changing over the next decade, both within China and on a more global scale. Little announcements like these aren't terribly exciting on a small level, but when rolled into the total sum of how the industry is doing, do portend some interesting things ...

FerryGames Gets EA's Steve Gray, Announces Line-Up [Gamasutra]

I've suggested before that for the videogames industry, the mass market is our long tail. The centre of cashflow in videogames are the hobbyists, the players who buy and play many games over the course of each year. Even with the outrageous sales figures that a mass market game can rack up (tens of millions, versus the old familiar game styles that top out at a few million units at best), the mass market doesn't look like an attractive option for most game developers: they don't know how to develop for it, they don't have a marketing spend big enough to skip over the hobbyists, and even if they made the perfect mass market product there's every chance it would sink without a trace.

The change at Nintendo is apparent: games are only part of Nintendo's focus now. What is less clear is what this change means for the rest of us. Because if this new wider market can only be hit by Nintendo first party software, which may be substantially the case, most developers would do better to continue to compete for a tiny share of a successful hobbyist marketplace, such as the first person shooter market, or the RPG market, even if most of the titles in these over-competed markets do fail miserably. And in that respect, the change in Nintendo is really 'business as usual' - because Nintendo's problem has always been that it can make and sell its own 'first party' software in large numbers, but third party developers struggle to make a profit on a Nintendo platform.

It does suck to be left out in the cold, and that goes for many of us — even those of us who don't have the time to game as we once did. Diversification isn't a bad thing, but it can be troubling at times.

The Change at Nintendo [Only a Game]

Korean games (non-Japanese games in general, actually) tend to get a lot of flack — 'They're all the same!' 'They're so badly made!' 'Just look at them!' — but Brandon Sheffield cautions that we ought to be keeping a closer on eye on the Korean market. With different development strategies, different working environments, and different players, there is stuff to be learned from Korean companies taking steps to expand westward:

The fact is, Western developers have ignored, discounted, or simply not known about the South Korean market for far too long, and now we're face to face with reality. Aside from World of Warcraft, they've taken a genre we invented, and perfected it to the point where an online dance game like T3 Entertainment's Audition has tens of millions of subscribers worldwide.

That's rather a lot of people, and we're ignoring it. When I first noticed that company in 2002, they were making a game called Raphael that was so rudimentary as to almost be freeware.

Korea is starting to get more attention, but perhaps the most impressive thing is how well some Korean companies have done with their entrance into other markets — it'll be interesting to see how the gaming landscape changes over the next couple of years.

Why You Should Care About Korea [GameSetWatch]

While some people argue that what games need is more monotony, at least in terms of black and white games, plenty of people are dissatisfied with the current trend of drabness in developers' color palettes. Of course, there are plenty of brightly colored games that are and will continue to be released, but plenty of people miss color. Bright color. I myself am rather fond of candy-colored palettes, preferring them to drab medieval "realism." One blogger thinks he has the answer to who stole the color from games:

... I think that publishers have convinced developers that the game buying public is composed almost entirely of teenage boys.

If the binder doodles, film and music consuption habits of my friends in junior high is any indication, adolescence is as much about proving that you’re not into “kids stuff” anymore, as it is about anything else. Remember when Nintendo made Wind Waker more cartoony? Remember how sales spiked when Prince of Persia went from this to this? Remember what the monsters of Doom 3 look like?

This is the legacy of teenage boys that continues to shape our industry. We sell to our audience, our audience thinks that they want “mature” titles and someone told them that mature meant dark, dank and bloody. Dystopian novels English curriculum, I am looking in your direction.

I can appreciate muted palettes as much as anyone, but it's nice to step into games that are so far removed from reality that the grass is always emerald and the sky is always some slightly unnatural color of blue. Are teenage boys to blame? I don't know about that, but there's nothing wrong with prettily painted games. And you can be muted without being drab.

Who Stole All the Colours? [Quiet Babylon via GameSetWatch]

Take-Two Interactive on Yahoo Finance [Yahoo]

Gamasutra has a great Q & A up with Lisa Cosmas Hanson, director of Niko Partners - who just released a study a study entitled "2007 Chinese Video Game Market Annual Review & Forecast Report." 2006 saw huge leaps in the revenue and market share of online games, but Hanson talks mostly about where China's going, not where it's been. Will China produce a WoW like hit in the next decade? What companies are benefitting from the huge growth of the industry? And what about that pesky pirating problem?

She's got some interesting things to say on the free to play model, the future of consoles in China (which have traditionally lagged behind PC based games), and the challenges faced by Western companies wanting to break into the market. Maggie Greene

Q&A: Niko's Hanson On China's Gaming Future [Gamasutra]

For instance, the NPD reported Call of Duty having sold 2 million copies in the states as of early February. Once you take into account people playing with friends, rentals, lending, and used sales, the game has been played by over 9 million gamers - over four times the original figure. Imagine the kind of difference that number would make to a potential advertiser.

On top of basic reach, Gameasure also claims to be the first accurate way of measuring specific demographic reach, offering Guitar Hero II data as an example. A tool that can tell a company that 30% of GHII players were females between the ages of 12 and 34 is going to be an amazing tool for publishers looking for ad revenue.

The report really drives home the importance of games to advertisers, which worries me. It isn't so bad right now, but how long before we find ourselves fighting off dragons with the Mystically Fresh Blade of Snuggles Fabric Softener? Michael Fahey

Interpret's New Media Reach And Frequency Study Reveals Measuring Games By Retail Sales Significantly Under-Values The Advertising Medium

New Research Substantiates Video Games as Key Ad Vehicle

LOS ANGELES - March 21, 2007 - Interpret, a leading new media research and measurement firm, recently released findings from their latest Gameasure report which reinforces the significance of video games as a medium for marketers seeking to reach and influence key demographic groups, particularly young males. The report measures actual reach, frequency and demographic makeup of over 80 video game titles and shows that games reach well beyond reported retail sales figures.

"Retail sales capture only a portion of the total audience playing individual game titles, suggesting current in-game advertising deals which are primarily tied to these sales figures, under-value the medium" Michael Dowling, CEO, Interpret, noted. "As Gameasure clearly shows, the impact of social game play, rental, used sales and pass-around is not inconsequential and can vary widely by game title/genre, so having a more comprehensive measure of game play activity is crucial for in-game advertising to be seriously considered."

As an example of video game's extensive reach, Activision's Call of Duty 3 sold 2 million units in the U.S. as of February 3, 2007, according to The NPD Group. However, the actual reach as reported by Gameasure is nearly 9 million gamers - over a 4 times multiple; EA's Madden NFL 2007 has sold over 6 million units, but 14 million have actually played the game - just over a 2 times multiple.

Another key aspect of Gameasure is that it quantifies, for the first time, the demographic profile of individuals playing specific titles. For example, 21% of all males between the ages of 18 to 34 have played Halo2; of the 6.8 million people who have played Guitar Hero 2, 56% are males 12 to 34 and 30% are females 12 to 34. "There is a paucity of credible data on who actually plays different video game titles and franchises," said Dowling. "Gameasure takes the guess work out of the equation and provides a credible third-party measure of game play activity for buyers and sellers."

Advertisers and agencies have been exploring opportunities to integrate or place their brands/products into video games as a way to reach the elusive male audience. To date, there has been no reliable source of information to evaluate the reach or duration impact of video games. Activision, a long-time proponent of integrating advertising into video games (dating back to 1999) is a charter client of Interpret's Gameasure, having assisted in the development of the product, along with select advertising agency stakeholders. "We've known for a long time that the secondary reach of video games is significant," said David Anderson, Senior Director of Business Development, Activision. "Having a third-party measurement will not only help validate video games as a viable alternative, but will properly value the medium."

Interpret's Gameasure data is available through several media planning software products that currently reside on agency desktops (e.g. eTELMAR Crosstabing and All Media Planner software). This will enable media planners and buyers to assess video games' unique reach against broadcast & cable television, print, etc.

About Gameasure
Interpret's Gameasure is a tracking report that provides videogame publishers, advertisers and agencies with a title measurement currency. The product measures title reach, frequency, duration, and demographics for both console and PC platforms. The data is also available through several media planning software products. The Q1 2007 report provides a measure of over 80 of the best selling games of the last year. The next report will be available in April 2007.

About Interpret
A leading new media market research firm, Interpret is focused on evaluating and measuring the intersections of content, advertising, technology and consumer behavior. Staffed by senior ex-Nielsen execs, the company provides consumer research and new media measurement solutions to the stakeholders of traditional and new media. With media consumption habits shifting radically, the company's unique insight into consumer attitudes and behavior - whether consumed on "traditional" media platforms like movie screens or TV or on "new" media platforms like video games, cell phones or digitally distributed content online - Interpret is the go-to source on new media.

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