It's that time of year again. Time to take a data dive into the heart of eBay U.S. to gauge how well the video game grey market fared during the holiday season. Rather than charting the sales numbers of a specific console, as I've done for the past three years with the Nintendo Wii, this year I'm presenting a broader overview of the eBay grey market, charting the sales for all major gaming platforms during the 30-day period beginning November 26th and ending on Christmas Day. I've compiled data on console sales, game listings, and some of the top-items passing through the popular auction website. If you want to know which platforms thrived, which handheld completely tanked, and the most successful video game-related item on eBay, then read on.

Console Sales

The table below presents a general overview of the sales performance of the major consoles and handheld systems during the month leading up to Christmas. I've listed the total sales in U.S. dollars, the number of items sold, the average selling price, and the sell-through percentage, which indicates the success of auctions posted for each specific product. Check out the table, and then we'll break things out by console.

PlayStation 3

The PlayStation 3 in all its varied incarnations sold the fewest number of consoles out of the big three this year, but that shouldn't be taken as a measure of the system's success. Indeed, if you look at the sell-through percentage, the PS3 comes out on top. That means there were less people selling, but plenty willing to buy. Since the launch of the PlayStation Slim earlier this year, Sony has maintained a steady supply of the consoles to retail outlets, and the abundance of available consoles equates less people looking for them on eBay.

From a seller's point of view, that high sell-through figure means the PlayStation 3 comes out on top in terms of sales potential.

The highest price PlayStation 3 auctions mainly consisted of limited edition consoles, including the Final Fantasy XIII bundle recently released in Japan.

Xbox 360

The Xbox 360 brought in the most money of any console this holiday season, mainly due to its average price being slightly higher than the Nintendo Wii, which pushed more units overall. The Microsoft console's sell-through numbers were only slightly lower than the PlayStation 3. Between that figure and the larger number of consoles put up for sales, it seems like putting a new 360 up for sales is seen as a relatively safe bet among sellers.

The Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2 Xbox 360 bundle made up a large portion of the Xbox 360 sales during the period, with 322 of the consoles representing $126,924 worth of sales. The Infinity Ward-flavored bundle went for as high as $900.

Wii

eBay sellers continue the love affair with the Wii that started with the console's 2006 holiday debut. The Wii was the top seller of the big three in terms of units sold, but the slightly lower sell-through rate indicates that there might have been a few too many up for sale.

Also note that the average price for the Wii was $190, which is below the suggested retail price. Either sellers were taking advantage of discounts and sales, or they weren't making very much in the way of profits.

DS

The Nintendo DS managed to outsell the newer, more advanced DSi this holiday season, pushing more than 2,000 units beyond what Nintendo's latest North American handheld sold. A failure for the DSi? Not exactly. Take a look at the sell-through percentage and you'll see that the DSi has the largest number of any game console. eBayers wanted to buy them, but the sellers just weren't selling.

PSP

The PSP sold strong on eBay this holiday, with the PSP-1000, 2000, and 3000 generating more money than any other handheld, though the DS trumped them with sheer numbers.

The top selling PSP was a used red God of War limited edition PSP, which went for $1,009.

Unfortunately, the PSPgo didn't fare nearly as well as its older brother. In fact, Sony's UMD-less alternative to the regular PSP performed abysmally, pushing only 250 units. It's not a factor of demand behind too high for supply either - the sell-through rate of 76.47% indicates that people simply weren't buying it.

To help paint a more complete picture, let's compare units sold versus monetary sales. If you look very closely, you'll notice that both graphs do indeed contain the PSPgo. You might need to zoom in.

Games With Legs

Now let's take a look at the games that traded this holiday season. This time around I took the top ten titles sorted by number of auctions, to see which ones were moving the most.

Certainly not a surprising list. Modern Warfare 2 seems to be showing up at the top of any list as far as sales are concerned these days, and Wii Sports and Wii Sports Resort are two of the titles meant to showcase what the Wii can do, so those both sold in droves. World at War traded heavily, perhaps due to people swapping out the old for the new, and the Pure / Lego Batman combo disc packed inside select Xbox 360 consoles over the holiday season scores a tidy profit for those who received it for free.

And Uncharted 2 making the list makes sense, but what about the extremely more expensive edition?

Forty-five of the ultra-rare Uncharted 2: Among Thieves Fortune Hunter Edition made it onto eBay during the 30 days leading up to Christmas, but it seems some sellers set their hopes too high. Of the 45, only 24 sold, giving the package a 53.33% sell-through rate. The average price for the package was $891.52, with one going for as high as $1,136. Didn't get one? Maybe you should have made it to Kotaku's Child's Play fundraiser this year.

What People Look For In An Online Video Game Auction

Selling on eBay isn't just a matter of having a strong product, but being aware of what your prospective buyers are searching for and using search terms accordingly. Let's see if this list of the top 10 search terms used in both the games and system category can help.

The console search terms are pretty much common sense. Let's face it - if you're selling an Xbox 360 and you forget to include Xbox 360 in the title, there's something wrong with you. As far as game search terms go, folks initially seem to be going for specific games, but then desperation sets in. You have to be pretty desperate in order to type "Wii games" into an eBay search page.

Wii Remotes Are The New Hotcakes

Finally we come to the hottest selling video game item of the holiday season. With 8,359 items sold between November 26th and December 25th, the Nintendo Wii remote is the hottest selling gaming item this holiday season, generating more than $202,000 for sellers over the course of one month. The remote, bundled with a nunchuck, a skin, and a wrist-strap is sold as a "Nintendo Wii Remote+Nunchuck Game Controller+Skin 4 SET," though counting the wrist strap as an actual item is a bit shaky. Still, with The New Super Mario Bros. Wii making four-player gaming fun on the Wii, its no wonder the controllers are flying off the shelves, onto resellers' shelves, and then back off of the shelves again.

Another Year Goes By

And there you have the 2009 holiday season, summed up in 30 days of eBay data. A look into what happens to games and consoles once they pass from retail into the hands of the wheelers and dealers that populate the world's largest online marketplace. Bids were sniped, Buy It Now items were pounced, and in the end, everybody got feedback. A++++! Would research again!

Methodology
Statistics in the 2009 Grey Market Report were gathered using eBay market research tool Terapeak. Data was drawn for a 30 day period starting on November 26th and ending on December 25th. Console statistics were pulled directly from the Video Games / Systems subcategory to allow for mis-filed system listings, while game data was puled directly from the Video Game / Games subcategory. Console searches were limited to items in New condition, with a range of $100 to $1,000 used to ferret out accessories. Certain terms were omitted from the search in order to allow for a more accurate reporting of console pricing, including "games," "extras", "accessories," "lot," and others on a case-by-case basis - for instance, "Wii Fit" was omitted from search terms for the Wii in order to make sure systems bundled with Wii Fit did not influence the pricing data.

Wii Fit resales, a popular add-on for the console, also seemed relatively flat, according to the data.

Nintendo and eBay have had an interesting relationship during the holidays over the past three years, so this year we once again revisit the Wii Grey Market to see if supply has finally met demand.

During the Wii's first holiday season, prices were a bit out of control, with consoles easily going for many times the suggested retail price of $250. Then in 2007, prices looked to be rising to record levels, until a last-minute infusion of systems from Nintendo successfully doused the fuse on what could have been an eBay explosion.

This year? Looks like Nintendo finally managed to catch up to consumer desire - or consumers finally got wise and didn't wait until the last minute. Let's look at the numbers for both the Wii itself, and its hottest holiday peripheral, the Wii Fit.

A Mild Holiday Season

As you can see from the chart above, things were relatively calm this year on the normally stormy Nintendo Wii eBay sea. Fluctuations in the market were far less drastic, with a difference of only $32 between the lowest average price per console - $284 - and the highest price, $318 on the last day of the year. Numbers did see an interesting rise directly following Christmas on December 25th, perhaps indicating that a number of people waited until after the holiday rush to try and purchase a console online.

What's more interesting than the numbers themselves this year, are the possibly reasons behind such an even line.

Nintendo Meets Demand: Simply put, there were plenty of consoles to go around, and no one felt the need to panic and pay exorbitant prices for a console that would be back in stock within days of disappearing. Many of the local stores in my areas were getting shipments as late as December 24th, and the local Fries outlet had stacks of their overpriced bundles available both before and after the holiday.

Consumers Get Wise: Instead of waiting until the last minute as they did the previous two years, consumers may have finally learned their lesson, picking up the console as a Christmas present before they were forced to spend hours driving from store to store in order to hunt for one.

The Economy: The downward spiral the economy is currently in could have very well been a contributing factor in the steady eBay Wii grey market. Prices on the consoles rarely spiked, and when they did, they were generally accompanied by a distinct drop in the percentage of successful auctions. Sellers tried to increase prices, but the buyers just didn't have the cash to go crazy just to purchase a Christmas gift. Instead of being gouged, consumers simply waited - which also could account for the post-Christmas spike.

So all in all, various factors could very well have contributed to the mild eBay Wii holiday season. Now let's take a look at how the console's hottest peripheral fared, with a look at the Wii Fit grey market.

It's important to note that for this particular chart, the numbers have been gathered using a very general search for "Wii Fit". This is due to the large number of bundles found on eBay throughout the holiday season, as well as the fact that people weren't sure whether to categorize the item as an accessory or as a game. While the average prices seen above are indeed indicative of what the standalone product was selling for, the data does include bundles with the Wii console. Think of it as more as an indicator of pricing trends than a definitive look at Wii Fit pricing.

Once again, despite the rampant popularity and relative scarcity of the peripheral, the Wii Fit also enjoyed a relatively mild holiday season on eBay.

Supply was certainly low, so we can't attribute this particular price trend to Nintendo, who earlier in the season predicted the Wii Fit would be hard to come by. Having eliminated that reasoning, we're left with the remaining two factors that I speculated on in the console section of the article - savvy consumers and the floundering economy.

To see how closely the two pricing trends were related, I went ahead and combined the Wii prices and Wii Fit prices into one chart, which revealed a strong correlation between the two.
As you can see, the two products followed basically the same sort of trends, only with the Wii Fit perhaps a day or so behind the console itself. Looking at it from a consumer point of view, you could almost imagine someone purchasing the Wii, and then realizing they needed the add-on for it the next day.

The trends only really differ wildly towards the end of the season, with a huge spike in Wii Fit sales hitting first on Christmas Day, and then on New Year's Eve, which could indicate that people who received the console as a gift immediately hopped online in order to score themselves a balance board.

The Conclusion

While it wasn't exactly the most dynamic and exciting year for the Wii grey market, taken along with the two previous years the numbers paint a picture. They show that Nintendo is slowly but surely beginning to meet consumer demand, something they'd struggled with for a good two years. They show that while consumers are embracing video games more and more, the economy is keeping them patient, making them wait for an opportunity rather than succumb to the pressure to acquire something as soon as possible.

Of course this is all just analysis, which is basically studying trends in order to form an opinion, but after three years of pouring over these numbers I feel I'm beginning to get a pretty good idea of the underlying meaning behind those spiky colored lines.

How I collected the graph data:
To track eBay sales for the Wii I once again used a website called Terapeak, which is one of the most trusted eBay market research tools available. I looked at data for the US eBay site each day utilizing the keyword "Nintendo Wii" in the Video Games/Systems category, while excluding certain terms in order to weed out bundled consoles (bundle, fit, extra, games, wiifit, and extras). I set the price range for $200 through $10,000 to weed out any artificially inflated auctions as well as any fake buying guide auctions. Keep in mind that the results are still in part tainted by systems including games and extra controllers, but I believe the method I used obtained the most accurate results, all things considered.

For the Wii Fit data, I simply checked the video game category for the terms "Wii Fit". Too many Wii Fits were included in bundles, scattered between different categories, and otherwise involved in bulk transactions to accurately gage the item's numbers without broadly generalizing. The Wii Fit prices were gather more to determine price spikes than to deliver an accurate representation of going prices.

More like the year before Christmas, actually. An entire year where not a day went by that hundreds of electronic and gaming retail employees didn't have to negatively answer the same nagging question. "Do you have any Wiis in stock?" Even though the console sold relatively briskly in the year following its launch, getting your hands on one meant you either won a contest, knew someone who worked for a retailer, shadowed UPS trucks or were just plain lucky.

As the holidays season started heating up, things looked bleak for parents and gamers looking to get their hands on Nintendo's tiny, motion-controlled console. Rumors of chip shortages ran rampant, and I personally was certain that the eBay grey market price for the hot gift item would far meet if not surpass the highest numbers seen during the initial late 2006 release window.

Miraculously that never happened. At the very last moment, in a series of moves that gained them criticism from fans, Nintendo managed to pull together enough supply to curb the often ridiculously inflated eBay demand before it was too late.

Rising...Slowly

As you can see from the chart, back in early November the Wii was selling for a relatively modest price on the world's largest online auction house. While $350 is still $100 than the retail price of the system, the markup isn't quite as painful as it could be. Then the Christmas panic sets in.

By November 21st the price had spiked to $459...nearly double the retail cost of the system, and with a few fluctuations the price stays solidly about the $400 mark. Perhaps consumers hoping to avoid the Black Friday rush 2 days later were trying to get a leg up on things, causing the price to reach this high of a point. Either way, things were looking pretty grim for parents and fans hoping to get their hands on a Wii without getting fleeced by eBay resellers - until one day.

Reggie Spreads The Word.

On December 14th, Nintendo President Reggie Fils-Aime held a conference call to address the growing problem of Wii shortages, detailing the companies plans to get customers matched up with systems by any means necessary. First came the raincheck system, which allowed customers a chance to pre-purchase the machine at GameStop stores across the country, with the understanding that they would be guaranteed a system by the end of January.

Then he announced that seven retail outlets - Best Buy, Target, Wal-Mart, Sears, Kmart, Toys R Us and Circuit City - would have the coveted consoles in stock that weekend, revealing that stores had been stockpiling the systems for a massive, last-minute flood.

While the rainchecks met with varying success due to limited ability, the flood of systems that weekend had a huge effect on the eBay market.

Bursting The Bubble

On December 17th, according to my data seen on the chart above, 11,016 Nintendo Wii consoles were sold on eBay, for an average price of $368 - the first time the price had dropped below $400 in a month. As Crecente noted in a previous post, eBay was positively slammed with Wiis, bringing the average price down and significantly lowering the normally high auction success rates on the console. Folks looking for a huge payoff still made a little dough of course, but nothing like the windfall they were expecting when they rushed out over the weekend to snag the systems for profiteering purposes. By the time Christmas Eve hits, the consoles are dollars away from the lowest price since November started.

Conclusion

As of this writing I cannot say if this was a calculated move by Nintendo to thwart the profit-hungry eBay grey market or simply a happy side-effect of a last-ditch effort to save face in the eyes of consumers worrying about where the product they wanted to purchase was, but Reggie's press conference and the subsequent console flood neatly nipped in the bud what could have been a terribly expensive Christmas for families looking for a little motion-controlled joy. Whatever the case may be, the end result is a small victory for the hardworking folks out there more worried about the smiles on their children's face than the thickness of their wallet.

Nicely done Nintendo.

While Nintendo declined to comment for this story, back during Fils-Aime's December press call he did address the issue of Wii gouging.

"We are always very disappointed if we see retailers that are pricing the Wii or any of our products above the MSRP price."

How I collected the graph data:
To track eBay sales for the Wii I once again used a website called Terapeak, which is of of the most trusted eBay market research tools available. I looked at data for the US eBay site each day utilizing the keyword "Nintendo Wii" in the Video Games/Systems category. I set the price range for $200 through $10,000 to weed out any artificially inflated auctions as well as any fake buying guide auctions. Keep in mind that the results are still in part tainted by systems including games and extra controllers, but I believe the method I used obtained the most accurate results, all things considered.

As for the numbers sold chart, I used the same data, taking note of the "Items Sold" statistic for each day in the period.

Over the weekend there appeared to be another sell out of Wii consoles. On Friday, Nintendo of America president Reggie Fils-Aime announced that seven retailers-Best Buy, Target, Wal-Mart, Sears, Kmart, Toys R Us and Circuit City- would be throwing a lot of Wii consoles out on their shelves over the weekend to try and sate the appetite of games and their families.

But judging by the obvious spike in eBay listings of Wii consoles, I think it's fair to say the only thing sated was greed. From 9 a.m. Eastern Sunday to 9 p.m. Eastern Sunday alone more than 13,500 Wii consoles were listed for sale in the U.S. on eBay. Coincidence? I can't imagine.

Note: These numbers might deviate a little from 100% complete authentic scientific goodness, but the trend is still relevant.

Sony PS3 - 60GB - Brand New - Sealed in Box - $575 (los altos)
Received as Gift several weeks ago. Planned to return to EB Games, but I'm past the 2 week return period. This is about $75 less than you will pay with tax at most stores.

After reading our feature on the PlayStation 3 grey market last week, many readers were wondering how the Wii was faring on eBay during the same time period. So many, in fact, that I was sent back to the Terapeak database, spreadsheet in hand, to create a comparison graph for the average eBay prices of both systems.

I know many people wanted me to compare 360 data for the similar time period the previous year, but sadly I couldn't get my hands on that data in time for this article to be published. I'll keep digging to see what I can turn up.

Comparing and Contrasting
The first thing you'll notice is the relatively straight line the Nintendo Wii's numbers generate as compared to the PS3's, which reads like a electrocardiogram 45 minutes into an episode of House. If you look closely, however, you'll see that while the Wii price didn't fluctuate greatly, at several points it mirrors the more expensive console's trends, only to a lesser degree of amplitude.

In particular, the Wii and PS3 both had a spike in late October, a little bit after preorders were allowed on eBay, with the Wii hitting it's peak early in the game at $707 on October 21st. The two systems also saw the same drop off after launch. Three days after the system went on sale, Wii auction averages dipped to $384. Relatively low, but still $134 more than the retail price, and oddly close to the PS3's lowest which was $124 above retail. Straight monetary values don't mean as much as percentages, of course. Those two numbers represent a 20% profit margin on the PS3 and 53% on the Wii, so selling the latter on eBay remains a better deal overall.

At it's most expensive the Wii was selling for nearly three times its worth, while the PlayStation 3 reached $2,367 on November 16th - nearly 4 times the price tag of the 60GB system.

Why the Difference?

I believe the key to the differences between the two graphs, aside from retail price, was overall system availability. Perceived profit potential was elevated by both gaming and traditional news sites' widespread reporting of PS3 manufacturing issues, system shortages, etc. From the start people knew that Nintendo was manufacturing plenty of systems, so the chances of getting one on launch day were much higher. Case in point, the Alpharetta Georgia Best Buy I visited for both launches had 35 PlayStation 3s versus 140+ Nintendo Wiis.

In addition, I don't think the type of people who were trying to make money off of the PS3 could understand the value of the Wii. They saw powerful new technology, Blu-ray, and high definition graphics. The Wii's entertainment value is something you can't really fully explain without seeing it in action. Even folks in the gaming industry didn't fully understand the potential of the system until playing it themselves. As far as non-gaming profiteers were concerned it was just a white box you waved a stick at. In the end, their loss.

Wiis Still Kinda Available

Personally I was quite surprised there wasn't a sharp spike in Wii prices leading up to Christmas, as the retail store I was employed at was flooded with phone calls and folks walking in hoping to score Nintendo's console. One possible explanation? eBay prospectors flooded the market again, making the auction site the best place to purchase the system. During the date range I studied Wii auctions had an overall success rate of 70%, though if you look at the week leading up to Christmas that average fell to 55%, meaning just under half of the systems put up for sale didn't get bought. As I was researching this article I watched as several Wii auctions ended around $365. Demand may be high, but eBayers have more than enough supply to meet it.

Or you could always go to Frys! I called a couple of the stores and yes, they are bundling the systems just like the PS3. You get five games (none of which are Zelda) for $499.99. If you're really hard-pressed for a Wii you could pick one up there, remove the games, and try to return them to Wal-Mart unopened. You'd just need to find a customer rep to stupid to notice or too lazy to bother calling over a manager, which I highly doubt would be all that difficult.

Conclusion
Considering the small window that the PlayStation 3 auctions had to turn a truly amazing profit, prospectors would have been better off in the long run purchasing a couple of Wiis, which have maintained an average profit margin of 45-50% since preorders became available. Definitely not a windfall, but a much more financially sound investment in the long run. Unfortunately these launches weren't about being sound financially. They were about betting on the big bucks, and the majority of the PS3 prospectors out there played the tables and lost.

How I collected the graph data:
To track eBay sales for the Wii I once again used a website called Terapeak, which is of of the most trusted eBay market research tools available. I looked at data for the US eBay site each day utilizing the keyword "Nintendo Wii" in the Video Games/Systems category. I set the price range for $200 through $10,000 to weed out any artificially inflated auctions as well as any fake buying guide auctions. Keep in mind that the results are still in part tainted by systems including games and extra controllers, but I believe the method I used obtained the most accurate results, all things considered.

Reports have been steadily trickling in since yesterday of stockpiles of Playstation 3s found sitting around in Best Buys untouched, or hardly touched.

Best Buy announced they would be selling a bunch of the consoles starting Sunday and according to several emailers, very few people took them up on their offer. Of course this is all anecdotally, so I'm not sure how widespread it is.

What I can tell you is that the Best Buy near my house had 31 Playstation 3s sitting in a lovely wall o' consoles this morning when I swung by the store. Many, if not all of them, were the 60GB model.

While taking pictures of the stack load of PS3s (and the nearby wall of Xbox 360s, twice the size) someone came buy and plucked one up. He happened to be right next to me when I was paying for my stuff and I heard him saying that the main reason he decided to get it was because it offered up games at 1080p and he wanted to see what it looked like on his plasma. It appeared he was also buying a Blu-ray movie and a copy of Madden for the system.

I can't help but wonder if this seeming lack of interest in the PS3 at Best Buys is because of a general post-holiday buying drought or something more about the system itself. It certainly doesn't look good, especially when coupled with the details were reported on last week about the PS3's grey market. Brian Crecente