Analyst: Record GTA Sales Change Nothing For EA's "80/20" Take-Two Bid

Record-setting launch numbers for Grand Theft Auto IV had no significant impact on Take-Two's stock price this morning, lending credence to analyst views that the share price already included the expectation of extraordinary first-week sales of the title.

What does this mean for EA's ongoing bid for Take-Two? Cowen and Co. analyst Doug Creutz said this morning that even the GTA IV launch couldn't have elevated the share price from January's 17 dollars per share to its current 26-dollar range, and that right now the elevated price is due to investor eagerness for the sale.

"Take-Two's self-imposed moratorium [on negotiations] is over," said Creutz. "We haven't heard anything out of either company in the last week. They could be talking... I still think the odds that the deal happens that are very high... I don't think GTA changes that at all."

Though we've had all eyes on the acquisition arm-wrestle between Electronic Arts and Take-Two ever since EA's bid went public on February 25th, things could start getting yet more interesting from here on out. Recall that Take-Two Board chairman Strauss Zelnick's been stonewalling EA, refusing to even discuss a possible combination until April 30th, after GTA IV's release. Well, then now could be the time, right?

Analysts, of both the professional and the armchair varieties, suspected that Take-Two's stock was set to take a big leap with the major title launch, thereby forcing EA to raise its offer. And it's true that Take-Two's stock has drifted up a little bit higher this week to over $26 per share by a handful of change, trumping EA's current offer of $25.74.

Talking to the New York Times recently, Strauss Zelnick says the increase proves the wisdom of his strategy. Some possible flaws in his logic, however, make the situation a little less clear-cut.

EA: We're After More Than "Game Of The Year" GTA IV

Electronic Arts reiterated this morning that its $2 billion buyout offer for Take-Two is not based on the company's short term valuation, and neither is it affected by the performance of a certain single franchise (guess which?).

Yesterday Take-Two's stock nudged up over $26 per share, a higher value than EA's $25.74 per-share bid. But EA's Mariam Sughayer, senior manager of Corporate Communications, says the company's looking further down the line — despite predicting that GTA IV is the likely contender for game of the year.