Those numbers for PS3 install base are incorrect Sony just anounced there sell through (sold to consumers) numbers and there much higher than 16 Million, and according to Sony are at nearly 24 million sold to consumers.
Sony tracks there sales numbers through to consumer sales where Microsoft and Nintendo track through to retail supply.
@BuckAndromeda: They are off. Even if we consider the fact they are NA and Europe numbers, that would leave an 8 million unit difference, and I highly doubt there are 8 million units in the Asian market.
@BuckAndromeda: And how does Activision track them? Honestly I'd probably trust Acti's numbers over Sony's since they have no stake in the matter but saying MS/Nintendo tracks them differently doesn't really matter since Activision gets their data, as it says on the chart, from NPD/Charttrack/G1K.
@NoHoldsBarred: Aren't we talking about the Activision that was in a CEO trash talk war with sony? For all I know they may have purposefuly underestimated the PS3 numbers to mess with sony's stock and put pressure on them.
@BuckAndromeda: The numbers make no sense... if you read them without taking it in the context of the dates given that is.
You probably know this already but I think the projections go into March of 2010 while the year-end total are only for calendar '09.
@kilikafinal: DS Phat, DS Lite, and DSi all count as one system, as far as someone like Activision is concerned. Well okay, except the DSi can't play Guitar Hero games.
I find it amusing that the DS Lite/DSi and PSP have larger install bases then the home consoles, yet the majority of the time they're relegated to the lame ass games most of the time. The DS more so because it has a large selection of games.
Sure both systems have games for the core gamer and have a bunch of gems like Crisis Core, God of War, GTA, Professor Layton, Chrono Trigger, Dragon Quest, etc..., but for each one of those you're hit with 5 titles that are complete garbage.
Over the last year I've spent far more time on my PSP and DS then I have on the Wii, PS3 or 360. I wish more companies would think of the handhelds first and not as an after thought.
@omyard: Sounds like you're describing the Wii as well. I guess the devs/publishers are just somewhat single minded when it comes to AAA development and stay "safe" with PS3/360 game filled portfolios. But I think you're right, I think there's a lot of money being left on the table when it comes to handhelds and the Wii getting sloppy seconds and thirds.
@subnet6: The same with the PS2, PSX, etc.. the most popular console will ALWAYS have a bunch of studios dumping games on it, because they can sell through saturation.
@FyreWulff: Yes, but the point wasn't that the Wii and handhelds are getting shovelware, (though they are). The point was that even though the Wii and handhelds are outselling the PS3/360 by a wide margin, both hardware AND software, the 360 and PS3 are still getting the lions share of the development dollars and particularly all the AAA titles. In your example, sure the PS2 got dumped on, but it also got all the big games of last gen. Not so with the Wii and with handhelds.
i hope sony is able to sell more consoles in America nonetheless. There are really good games on that console and you can make more money for the price of one ps3 in like a month of work. so what REALLY is holding everybody back?
@Boom-Chicka-Ah-Here to Create a Star Commenter...: People don't devote whole month's worth of pay for video games. There's house bills, car payments and insurance, food, heating/cooling, medical costs, investments/savings, etc.
Most people probably have enough for a $60 game every 2 months.
@Boom-Chicka-Ah-Here to Create a Star Commenter...: Already owning a Wii or 360? The economic downturn making the PS3 an expensive luxury? Any number of reasons?
On another note, I'm curious what you did to earn a star. Sure can't tell from this post...
@Boom-Chicka-Ah-Here to Create a Star Commenter...:
I'm not spending 400 bucks, plus another couple of hundred for some games, just to play a couple of games.
The cost of the hardware alone equals 6 full retail games on the system I already have (360), plus several Arcade games. OR, I can spend that cash, buy the hardware . . . and I still don't have any games to play.
I would certainly like to play Uncharted 1 and 2. I'd like to try Killzone. LBP looks like fun to play. Warhawk looks like fun.
But they don't look like 600 dollars of fun.
@Boom-Chicka-Ah-Here to Create a Star Commenter...: You realize it is just a matter of what people want. Some will say it is price and games and so forth but it is their choice. I bought my PS3 shortly after launch but I had been saving for it and times were better. Now there are a few 360 games that I want but between the fact you spend a hundred bucks and get nothing at the grocery store I have to put that on hold. In reality it is really a matter of wants my fiance's mother says gaming is a waste of money to both of us, but she will drop a grand a ticket for a concert. Make sense no but that is how people work. It isn't logical but it is all a matter of when they are willing they will. At the moment though so many games are multi-platform it really doesn't force anyones hand to go out of their way to get that second console.
@ostartero: I agree with you to a degree. They may have enough for a couple of 60 buck games, but it is a matter of what other wants do they have after bills. If it comes down to an I want to buy X, Y and Z movie and I also want these games sometimes you have to pick which you want.
@Boom-Chicka-Ah-Here to Create a Star Commenter...: @ostartero: who's making $400 in a month? if someone is they are making under minium wage (or a in a tip-based job but even then they'll make more then that in 2 weeks most places)
@Big Ups To Atlus: I'm not sure what you're talking about, but you seem to have completely missed ostartero's point. Regardless of what you're making, people have other expenses and $400 in a month is a lot to spend on something that's unnecessary and used only for entertainment. Most people can't afford to buy a PS3 on a whim.
Typically, I hold disdain towards analysts who take proverbial shots in the dark, but I especially have a hard time with these figures, in particular, as this is the same company who abandoned Brütal Legend presumably for the next half baked Guitar Hero or Tony Hawk sequel (the publisher's fear of quality and love for franchises has been made especially apparent, as of lately) and would later turn around and attempt to prevent the title from seeing the light of day once it further progressed with a publisher that was committed to releasing the final product.
@B33: What the heck does their business planning on titles have to do with their ability to generate console counts?
Whether you like their reliance on sequels or not, they are the second largest publisher and a *very* good source for info like this. They also have a responsibility to their investors to make meaningful predictions, so they spend a lot of time and money generating these lists in an attempt to make them as accurate as possible.
@Yossarian: It was a bit of a jab in terms of the general logic the company, as a whole, tends to display. And it was also just a general display of disdain towards precise "predictions" to begin with. A general assumption for their stockholders to ponder over.
Would be interesting to know what they base their guesses on. Sony tends to report the number of consoles that are actually sitting in someone's living room, while Microsoft prefers to report numbers shipped to retail (which might also include rebuys for broken consoles).
If they are really talking about the install base in our living rooms, I'd like to see which kind of dice Activision used to roll that numbers (just out of curiosity).
@dnadns: That would be interesting, but I don't think it necessarily matters to Activision. They are rolling numbers so they can figure out attach rates and then predict total sales based historical %'s plus some growth. [www.gamasutra.com]
Either way they do it, the math will still work out to 11 million copies of MW2 sold by new years.
@dnadns: I'm not sure which Sony fanboy started this misinformation campaign, but every where I see PS3 supporters stating Sony reports sell-through numbers. They DO NOT DO SO, all three console manufacturers report sales/shipped to retail numbers in their earnings reports. (It was actually Sony back in PS1/PS2/early-PS3 days that reported the inflated and misleading 'production shipment' numbers that counted all consoles produced).
@dnadns: No, Sony don't report consoles sitting in the living room. They report "shipped to retail" just like everyone else.
Where do you get such stupid information?
@Yossarian
@robbo_the_hood
@lazybum131
Acutally it was on gamasutra where I stumbled upon the information that Sony, Microsoft and Nintendo report differently.
I know that NPD is not accounting units in transit, but then again, those numbers are only for the US.
It's really just a curiosity thing, because I don't necessarily tend to trust neither the companies, nor the media (no offense Kotaku ;) ) when it comes to presenting a story. But as I was upon reading some more articles about indie developers during the last days where some even came up with business plans based on arbitrary XBLA/PSN numbers, it would be a nice addition to see how close those are to the real playground out there.
@NitroAML: I saw that before, but unfortunately Luke has it wrong. So wrong, in fact, that I contacted him directly at the time and pointed out the error of his ways (along with links, facts, etc) because I knew the fanboy crowd would latch onto it at some point.
Unfortunately, Luke neither replied to me nor corrected the story with his mistake.
@Rotmm: I am not saying Luke has it right or wrong. Or that you are wrong. But it would be nice to see your proof (links, etc) that you sent to him instead of just saying he is wrong and we should believe you, no?
@deathxrebirth: I'll copy/paste the email here, but I suspect the formatting will be screwed up.
Luke,
As a long time reader (and poster as Rotmm) on Kotaku, I feel it’s important to correct you in the story you recently posted on the site. I don’t overly care, except I seem to recall the same assertion being posted on the site previously and, while plainly incorrect, many may not realise it and it can go some way to fanning the flames of the fanboy element.
You stated, "In 2006, Sony decided to start tracking how many consoles and games they sold all the way through to customers, not just to retailers (which is how most other companies record "sales"). It's an admirable practice, and one which gives us a very accurate picture of how the PS3 (and its games) are faring, since these figures have been available for the entirety of the machine's lifespan."
The first inaccuracy is that it was in 2007 that Sony chose to change the way they reported their figures and would go ahead from Q1 2007, which equates to the 1st April. Prior to that date, Playstation 3 sales listed on their financial reports (here [www.scei.co.jp]) were shipped from manufacturing, ie: into warehouses and not into the retail chain as other manufacturers did and which is also the defacto standard.
From Q1 2007, Sony amended their reporting to be in line with other manufacturers and all sales figures since then are those shipped to retail. Not, as you assert, those actually sold to customers.
I can understand where you got confused, as the line "Beginning with Q1 2007, the method of reporting hardware and software unit sales has been changed from production shipments to recorded sales." from [www.sony.net] could make it sound as though Sony are somehow magically getting accurate sales information from Do Predele Gametek, Ostrava, Czech Republic, but they aren’t. Those recorded sales are defined by those that are recorded from distribution to retail.
As an aside, those sales recorded for the first 2 quarters were under the old "shipped from production" method and therefore are somewhat circumspect. Therefore, the 23.8m shipped figure cannot honestly be stated with any degree of confidence in its accuracy.
To end, it would be nice if you would amend the story to remove/change the offending paragraph, though I understand that probably won’t happen. I would definitely hope, though, that I don’t read similar misinformation on Kotaku again ;)
Clearly Activision doesn't have faith in the PS3 price cut. You'd think one of the most vocal critics for a price cut would assume it might have a positive impact on the PS3 sales. But according to their predictions they think the 360 is going to whoop the PS3's ass this holiday season.
@grantanamo: As much as I'd prefer to see an individual scarf down their own hat, I'd have to agree with you. All signs point towards a slimmer model which would in turn lower the price and increase the flow of units (ideally, mind you).
@deanbmmv: ([k]): Lol, this is the first time I've used that phrase in a long time. And as a person who wears a hat nearly everyday, it's the equivalent to a Christian swearing on baby Jesus.
@deanbmmv: ([k]): But you see I'm not a Christian. I would never eat the flying spaghetti monsters son. I mean, that's just wrong on so many levels. At least Jesus isn't real....... I hope I make it home safely tonight.
@lionkitten: "$53M > $50M plus" isn't really that big of a differential, especially when you remember the 360 had a year to build an install base without competition from the Wii or PS3.
@spiderweb1986: It does show the gap closing though, which is interesting because the Wii absolutely murdered the others that first Christmas.
Correct me if I'm wrong, but didn't Nintendo do like 20M+ that first half year?
They are still doing well, but the fact that they haven't doubled sales of the other two anymore denotes an interesting trend at least.
@Yossarian: It wasn't 20M+ in that first six months; it was maybe half that. According to this, nine million Wiis were sold from launch (November 2006) to July 2007. I'm not sure if the pace is still as high as it once was, but looking at those estimates it doesn't seem to have slowed enough to give Nintendo reason to worry.
@spiderweb1986: Thanks for looking it up. I must have been thinking of later articles after they cleared up the production issues and finally got them out on shelves.
That said, I retract any statements about interesting sales trends :)
@Nobuyuki: I would think a company the size of Acti-Blizz and with their connections, and with as much at stake, are definitely factoring that in. If WE know about it, THEY certainly do.
I have watched more movies since Netflix became available on the 360 than I have in the last 5 years. Just this weekend I watched Spies Like Us, Krull and Phantasm. Coupled with PlayOn, my 360's have replaced my cable TV in the house.
I don't have cable or watch broadcast TV anymore. Streaming Netflix (with DVDs as needed) and Hulu are enough for me. I honestly wish Netflix had a non-DVD price plan.
08/05/09
Sony tracks there sales numbers through to consumer sales where Microsoft and Nintendo track through to retail supply.
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You probably know this already but I think the projections go into March of 2010 while the year-end total are only for calendar '09.
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Sure both systems have games for the core gamer and have a bunch of gems like Crisis Core, God of War, GTA, Professor Layton, Chrono Trigger, Dragon Quest, etc..., but for each one of those you're hit with 5 titles that are complete garbage.
Over the last year I've spent far more time on my PSP and DS then I have on the Wii, PS3 or 360. I wish more companies would think of the handhelds first and not as an after thought.
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Most people probably have enough for a $60 game every 2 months.
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On another note, I'm curious what you did to earn a star. Sure can't tell from this post...
08/05/09
I'm not spending 400 bucks, plus another couple of hundred for some games, just to play a couple of games.
The cost of the hardware alone equals 6 full retail games on the system I already have (360), plus several Arcade games. OR, I can spend that cash, buy the hardware . . . and I still don't have any games to play.
I would certainly like to play Uncharted 1 and 2. I'd like to try Killzone. LBP looks like fun to play. Warhawk looks like fun.
But they don't look like 600 dollars of fun.
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Whether you like their reliance on sequels or not, they are the second largest publisher and a *very* good source for info like this. They also have a responsibility to their investors to make meaningful predictions, so they spend a lot of time and money generating these lists in an attempt to make them as accurate as possible.
Not sure why you could discount this list.
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If they are really talking about the install base in our living rooms, I'd like to see which kind of dice Activision used to roll that numbers (just out of curiosity).
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[www.gamasutra.com]
Either way they do it, the math will still work out to 11 million copies of MW2 sold by new years.
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[kotaku.com]
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Where do you get such stupid information?
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@robbo_the_hood
@lazybum131
Acutally it was on gamasutra where I stumbled upon the information that Sony, Microsoft and Nintendo report differently.
I know that NPD is not accounting units in transit, but then again, those numbers are only for the US.
It's really just a curiosity thing, because I don't necessarily tend to trust neither the companies, nor the media (no offense Kotaku ;) ) when it comes to presenting a story. But as I was upon reading some more articles about indie developers during the last days where some even came up with business plans based on arbitrary XBLA/PSN numbers, it would be a nice addition to see how close those are to the real playground out there.
08/05/09
Unfortunately, Luke neither replied to me nor corrected the story with his mistake.
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08/05/09
Luke,
As a long time reader (and poster as Rotmm) on Kotaku, I feel it’s important to correct you in the story you recently posted on the site. I don’t overly care, except I seem to recall the same assertion being posted on the site previously and, while plainly incorrect, many may not realise it and it can go some way to fanning the flames of the fanboy element.
You stated, "In 2006, Sony decided to start tracking how many consoles and games they sold all the way through to customers, not just to retailers (which is how most other companies record "sales"). It's an admirable practice, and one which gives us a very accurate picture of how the PS3 (and its games) are faring, since these figures have been available for the entirety of the machine's lifespan."
The first inaccuracy is that it was in 2007 that Sony chose to change the way they reported their figures and would go ahead from Q1 2007, which equates to the 1st April. Prior to that date, Playstation 3 sales listed on their financial reports (here [www.scei.co.jp]) were shipped from manufacturing, ie: into warehouses and not into the retail chain as other manufacturers did and which is also the defacto standard.
From Q1 2007, Sony amended their reporting to be in line with other manufacturers and all sales figures since then are those shipped to retail. Not, as you assert, those actually sold to customers.
I can understand where you got confused, as the line "Beginning with Q1 2007, the method of reporting hardware and software unit sales has been changed from production shipments to recorded sales." from [www.sony.net] could make it sound as though Sony are somehow magically getting accurate sales information from Do Predele Gametek, Ostrava, Czech Republic, but they aren’t. Those recorded sales are defined by those that are recorded from distribution to retail.
As an aside, those sales recorded for the first 2 quarters were under the old "shipped from production" method and therefore are somewhat circumspect. Therefore, the 23.8m shipped figure cannot honestly be stated with any degree of confidence in its accuracy.
To end, it would be nice if you would amend the story to remove/change the offending paragraph, though I understand that probably won’t happen. I would definitely hope, though, that I don’t read similar misinformation on Kotaku again ;)
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A PS3 price cut is still speculation though.
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At least convert to pastafarianism before choosing to eat religious figures!
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America = No
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That's because Japan doesn't care for the shit sandwich Activision shoves in everyone's mouth.
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Correct me if I'm wrong, but didn't Nintendo do like 20M+ that first half year?
They are still doing well, but the fact that they haven't doubled sales of the other two anymore denotes an interesting trend at least.
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That said, I retract any statements about interesting sales trends :)
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edit: also, these are only estimates for north america and europe. so these numbers are the way acti-blizz think will turn out for consoles.
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@Sedako: They're Huge in Japan.
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[www.themediamall.com]
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