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colin sebastian

feature

Analyzing the Analysts, Episode Two


Monday's feature took a broad, anecdotal look at ten different analysts, explaining a little about who the analysts are and what they do. For your enjoyment and discussion, we present to you today all of the predictions made by the analysts and our verdict on each of them.

There's been some changes to these results since the original article was released on Monday, due to the availability of new information. While this does change some of the numbers, it also indicates how fluid many of these predictions are, and the challenge of pin-pointing exact answers for many of them, both for journalists, traders who rely on the analysts for smart business choices, and gamers who want to know how well the industry is doing.

Here's the proof that being correct the most often doesn't always mean you're the best analyst.

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feature

Analyzing the Analysts, Episode One

We've all seen their work. "Analysts predict PS3 price drop by September." "New DS to be released by Nintendo." "Wii will be the top selling console of 2007." Analysts seem to descend from their mountaintops once a month to tell us the future of the video game industry. So what secret rituals do these soothsayers conduct to get their predictions? And, more importantly, how often are these predictions right?

After a look at ten analysts, 100 predictions, and first hand accounts from video game industry analysts Michael Pachter of Wedbush Morgan Securities and Jesse Divnich of The simExchange, and founder of The simExchange Brian Shiau, we managed to gain a little bit of insight into the murky crystal ball used to prognosticate and pontificate.

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fifth of a billion

Analyst: Initial Halo 3 Sales Should Hit $200 Million

No one expects Halo 3 to walk away with anything but gargantuan success. Microsoft is aiming for day one sales of the Xbox 360 shooter to the tune of $155 million, a considerable jump from Halo 2's $125 million single day take. With the $10 next-gen tax imposed for the third, that doesn't seem that unreasonable. Adding to that a $129 Legendary Edition version makes it sound like a lock.

Lazard Capital Markets' Colin Sebastian says that's a conservative estimate, putting "initial" sales at $200 million. Unsurprisingly, Sebastian predicts that the release of Master Chief's next gun-fest will push lots of Xbox 360s. What no one seems to be discussing is what I predict will be a massive rush for Spartan flavored Mountain Dew beverages.

Analyst: Initial Halo 3 Sales to Push $200 mln [Next-Gen]