Analyst: Record GTA Sales Change Nothing For EA's "80/20" Take-Two Bid

Record-setting launch numbers for Grand Theft Auto IV had no significant impact on Take-Two's stock price this morning, lending credence to analyst views that the share price already included the expectation of extraordinary first-week sales of the title.

What does this mean for EA's ongoing bid for Take-Two? Cowen and Co. analyst Doug Creutz said this morning that even the GTA IV launch couldn't have elevated the share price from January's 17 dollars per share to its current 26-dollar range, and that right now the elevated price is due to investor eagerness for the sale.

"Take-Two's self-imposed moratorium [on negotiations] is over," said Creutz. "We haven't heard anything out of either company in the last week. They could be talking... I still think the odds that the deal happens that are very high... I don't think GTA changes that at all."

Spongebob Savior: Will Kid-Friendly Licenses Save THQ?

Earlier today, we reported that THQ's portfolio of Nickelodeon titles has hauled in more than $1 billion in sales, with the publisher looking forward to its 2008 lineup of more Nickelodeon properties.

THQ's survived a series of hard knocks in the market thanks to the strength of its kid-friendly titles based on licenses from the likes of Nickelodeon and Pixar, even while its stock has taken a serious dive since January of this year. The company's about to announce its fiscal fourth quarter results tomorrow - as a new year begins for THQ, is it on track for smoother sailing?

Analyst Says That Gaming Needs More Super Stars

Evan Wilson, a senior research analyst at Pacific Crest Securities, has an interesting take on how game companies should handle their most talented members of their staffs—that's not so different from what we see in professional sports, music or the movie industry.

There are very few people in this world who know how to create hits...multiple hits. Those creative minds should be recognized and remunerated in the video game industry for their contribution as much as other forms of media. From a business perspective, that might be more expensive, but if the reward is better selling games the trade-off is worth it.

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Analyst Calls Bullshit On EA Being Rockstar's "White Knight"

EA really wants Take-Two. Actually, they mostly want Rockstar Games and Grand Theft Auto—and they want them now. EA CEO John Riccitiello certainly thinks that the swallowing of Rockstar would be good for the developer of Manhunt, GTA and Bully, telling the New York Times "We, in many ways, represent a white knight." The kind of white knight who can provide stability and exposure, assumably.

Analysts, though? They think that EA's full of BS. Janco Partners' Mike Hickey told GameDaily.biz that "My belief is Rockstar would be perfectly happy if EA never put a bid in at all." Hickey called Riccitiello's perception as Rockstar savior "bullshit" not to mention disrespectful to Take-Two management and its developers.

Other analysts had their say, including Michael Pachter, who noted that Riccitiello's "white knight" analogy was "perhaps a misplaced attempt to sound clever." Yep. Fightin' words.

Analyst: EA's Riccitiello 'Disrespectful' Towards Rockstar, Take-Two [GameDaily.biz]

Analyst: Take-Two Talks Buyout Before GTA IV

Despite predicting fiscal year sales of Grand Theft Auto IV to reach 9 million, with 6 million shipping out the first week, Wedbush Morgan analyst Michael Pachter believes that Take-Two is ready to talk EA buyout. Citing a poor lineup over the next year, with major sequels such as BioShock 2 a long way off, Pachter believes that Take-Two will abandon it's stance on not discussing a potential buyout until after GTA IV is released.

"We expect that in order to save face, Take-Two management will withdraw its demand that any discussions wait until after the launch of GTA IV, and we think that management will engage in discussions with EA,"

GTA IV to sell 9m units, ship 6m in first week [GamesIndustry.biz]

In reaction to the rumors spreading about a new Xbox 360 with a 60GB hard disk, super analyst Michael Pachter decided to take a break from using his immense powers of precognition to make a simple, obvious observation. 20GB is too small.

"I think the console [manufacturers] all misjudged the quantity of downloadable content and the opportunity to actually download meaningful content, and so what sounded like a good idea in 2003 or 2004 in the design stage with the 20GB hard drive on the 360 was just not sufficient. Frankly, the surprise to me is that the new SKU is [purportedly] 60GB. I mean, I would think they'd introduce a 200GB or 500GB and eliminate the 20GB and make the 120GB the standard cheapie one.

Pachter: 20GB Xbox 360 No Longer Sufficient [GameDaily]

Pachter: EA Wants Take-Two For Sports, GTAIV Is "Gravy"

We've already heard EA's story recounting why they're interested in acquiring Take-Two, but analyst Michael Pachter gives the real scoop. And unlike many have claimed, Take-Two's appeal has very little to do with GTAIV, which he calls "gravy." It's all about the sports.

For EA, sports is enough to pay for the whole [$2 billion] thing. If you get rid of sports competition, you suddenly add Take Two's $200 million per year in sports revenue and EA doesn't compete on price anymore.

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GameStop Stock Is Smokin' Hot

If you are interested in getting in on a little hot GameStop stock action and were waiting for a good time to sink some money into the company, between now and January 10th would be ideal, according to two industry analysts. Both Arvind Bhatia of Stern Agee and Leach, and Mike Hickey of Janco Partners believe that trends indicate a strong holiday earning period for the Texas-based company, and that means that purchasing before the company announces said earnings next week.

Hickey said the GameStop's holiday period typically represents 75 percent of Q4 reported sales, which means that "the street is looking for $2.027 billion in holiday sales, or +17 percent year-on-year."

Analysts: Buy GameStop Shares Now [Next Gen]

Nintendo Snatches Software Sales Lead From Sony

Is This Then End For The PS2?

While this substantial decline was inevitable, it is currently unclear whether the drop reflects consumer transition to next-gen software or weak spending patterns amongst the low-end consumer...we think that the PS2 may finally be on its way out of the industry for good.

Pachter Dates GTAIV DLC

Analysts aren't just for predicting sales figures and price drops. No sir. A good analyst...say, one of Michael Pachter's caliber, can utilize their magical analyzing sextant for any number of game-related prognostications. Take DLC release dates, for instance. Microsoft's exclusive episodic content for GTA IV was originally set to go live in March, but seeing as the game won't hit until possibly April, Pachter used his powers to deduce the adjusted drop date for said DLC.

"We note that the USD 50 million deferred revenue for GTA episodic content was reclassified as 'long term,' implying a release date no earlier than Q4 2008," commented Pachter in a note to investors following publisher Take Two's latest financial results.

Episodic GTA IV content expected late 2008 - analyst [GamesIndustry.biz]