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console wars
analyst
Xbox 360 To Be Europe's "Biggest Loser" Say Analysts
The analysts at DFC Intelligence have gazed into the crystal ball to receive word from the future of the European console war and the news is somewhat of a downer for Sony. But it's far worse for Microsoft. A new report calls for "strong" sales of the PlayStation 3 but that Sony should expect to lose a "big chunk" of the PS2 install base. Wii is expected to dominate, but won't move software like the PS3 may.
The analyzing wizards at DFC see an Xbox future filled with doom and gloom, with the 360 "continuing to struggle" in Europe, despite UK acceptance. They have better news for the Euro industry as a whole, with 2008 expected "to break all kinds of sales records." And they all lived happily ever after. The end.
DFC: 360 Likely "Biggest Loser" in Europe [Next-Gen]
playstation 3
Analyst Warns Movie Studios That People May Be Playing Games On PS3s
Blu-ray campers may not have as much to boast about, according to one analyst, who questions how big of a contribution the PlayStation 3 install base really is to the format. ABI Research analyst Steve Wilson says that "the state of the Blu-ray player market is not all that encouraging," according to a Next Gen report on the study.
With an estimated 85% of Blu-ray playing devices being PS3s, Wilson says that those invested in the format should maybe concerned that owners of the console may actually be playing games on it. That's clearly trolling, Steve! Are you implying there are no PlayStation 3 games?
Analyst: PS3 a Crutch to the Blu-ray Market [Next-Gen]
sales
Analyst: Game Sales Have Peaked, We're All Doomed
Maybe we're not doomed, but the financial future of retailer GameStop may be less rosy, less "recession proof" if analyst Robert Higginbotham of Goldman Sachs is right. He wrote in an investor note—which I'm so pissed that I missed—that after the release of Grand Theft Auto IV and Wii Fit, "the remainder of the year lacks any big releases, and comparisons get tougher throughout the year as we lap titles such as Halo 3 and Guitar Hero III."
It may be hard to match the already stellar beginning of the year, with nearly a billion U.S. dollars in software sales last month, but the second half isn't without some respectable hits. Metal Gear Solid 4, Gears of War 2, LittleBigPlanet, Halo Wars, Resident Evil 5 and maybe even a Nintendo published game or two are sure to stoke spending. But will it be enough as the economy sinks closer to Armageddon levels? I'm going to start using my left kidney less. Just in case.
Goldman says video-game sales have peaked [Marketwatch]
analyst
"The DS Has Peaked In Japan"
Gloom and doom! Those living in the US are starting to feel (or maybe, totally feeling) the effects of a downward economy. How will it affect gaming? According to analyst Hiroshi Kamide at KBC Securities Japan, "A recessionary environment is negative for the electronic entertainment industry, but we believe the core gaming market to be more resilient than its casual counterpart." So, core gamers will keep buying, while casual gamers won't. Good news for some companies, bad news for others! "The casual market looks more exposed to an economic downturn, due to its non-essential nature," continues Kamide. "The sector remains 'hit-driven', which provides a positive outlook for the companies with strong core title line-ups." Big games like Metal Gear Solid IV should still perform. What's more, Kamide adds:
sales
Analyst: GTA IV Will Smoke The Competition With 13 Million Copies Sold In 2008
If Hudson Square Research analyst Daniel Ernst is right, Rockstar Games and Take-Two are going to have a very merry 2008. Ernst lays out the research firm's "top 20 game unit sales and revenue" for the calendar year, projecting that Grand Theft Auto IV will kill the competition with 13 million copies sold. That would mean GTA IV's sales for the year would exceed that of the Grand Theft Auto III's lifetime to date figure and approach total sales of Vice City.
The firm pegs Wii Fit as the year's second biggest seller and provides estimates for 2008's other marquee titles, including Call of Duty 5 and Final Fantasy XIII. Wait, Final Fantasy XIII? Seriously?
nintendo
Pachter: Wii Shortage? Blame The Lousy US Dollar
Wedbush Morgan analyst and Kotaku reader idol Michael Pachter went on record with the Dallas News with his theory on one reason it's still so damn hard to find a Wii. The United States dollar, he's paraphrased as saying, is so limp, that Nintendo is shipping excess consoles to Europe to meet demand there, squeezing out a bit of extra profit when all is said and done. It's not like Nintendo is completely abandoning American gamers—it sold 432,000 Wiis in February—it may just be allocating stock to its first class customer base.
Don't despair, though, if you're holding a copy of Brawl with nothing to play it on. Mr. Pachter thinks that with European demand leveling off, Nintendo may shift some of those Wiis Stateside. Stop burning your Euros in protest, please. It'll just breed contempt.
Wii shortage may finally be near an end [Dallas News - thanks, Brian!]
wii fit
Pachter: Nintendo Planning A Wii Fit-zkrieg
In a note to investors Wedbush Morgan analyst Michael Pachter says that Nintendo of America is planning to pitch Wii Fit to American consumers with "the biggest marketing campaign in its history." We're pretty sure that means that you, core gamer, won't be able to go anywhere without being surrounded by Wii Fit and the millions of physically fit humans that will ultimately result from its success. More »
mobile gaming
Analyst: iPhone Not A Viable Gaming Platform
Playing Super Monkey Ball and Spore on the iPhone sure sounds like a nifty diversion, but is a $400 mobile device really going to be a success as a gaming platform? Not if Wedbush Morgan analyst Michael Pachter's perspective on new ventures from Sega, EA and THQ is spot on. He tells Next-Gen "To the extent that hip, rich people are an interesting gaming audience, iPhone games will work" adding that the demographic will probably "only interested in the most rudimentary games, and that the market will be small."
Maybe he's right. I'm still in the honeymoon phase with my iPhone, but my hype level for using the accelerometer to game is on par with the prospect of further SIXAXIS gaming. That's hovering around zilch, currently.
pachter
Analyst Predicts Death Of 360 In Japan
Sony may be worried following the 360 price drop in Europe, but according to Wedbush Morgan analyst Michael Pachter, they don't have much to be concerned about. In fact, Pachter predicts that the PS3 will beat out the Xbox 360 in Japan ("killing" it) and Europe (by 20%-40%). He also says that the PS3 may pull ahead of the Xbox 360 in month-on-month sales:
"In the US, I think it will be close all year, with 360 outselling PS3 most months due to its lower price points (at least as long as it remains lower priced)," Pachter told videogaming247. "Sony gains a huge competitive advantage when HD monitor sales pick up at holiday, as I expect retailers to push PS3 as a Blu-ray player to anyone buying an HD monitor. By year-end, I think PS3 will outsell the 360 in the US by a little."Seems to me that 2008 is shaping up to be an interesting year in the battle of the consoles! Now, we just have to wait and see if Pachter is on the money...
Pachter on late 2008: "PS3 will likely outsell the 360 in Europe by 20%-40%, and will kill 360 in Japan" [videogaming247, via GamePro]
money
In-Game Ads Predicted to Reach $650 Mil By 2012
According to the latest report by analyst group eMarketer, the in-game ad industry will grow to $650 million by 2012, more than doubling 2007's $295 million. eMarketer attributes the growth to the overall growth of the video game industry, with game launches overshadowing other big media events. Most recently, Halo 3 generated more in first day sales than the opening weekend of Spiderman 3 (the biggest opening weekend in history) and the first-day sales of Harry Potter and The Deathly Hallows (the final installment in the series).
But this shouldn't come as any surprise. In fact, this estimate is more conservative than in the past. Join me on a trip down memory lane for just a moment, back to the wonderful world of July 2007. Back then, the Yankee Group said that by 2011, in-game ad revenue could reach $971 million. So while in-game ads are on the rise, they may not be growing as quickly as originally thought!
eMarketer: U.S. In-Game Ads Market to More than Double to $650M by 2012 [GameDaily]
feature
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Analyzing the Analysts, Episode Two
Monday's feature took a broad, anecdotal look at ten different analysts, explaining a little about who the analysts are and what they do. For your enjoyment and discussion, we present to you today all of the predictions made by the analysts and our verdict on each of them.
There's been some changes to these results since the original article was released on Monday, due to the availability of new information. While this does change some of the numbers, it also indicates how fluid many of these predictions are, and the challenge of pin-pointing exact answers for many of them, both for journalists, traders who rely on the analysts for smart business choices, and gamers who want to know how well the industry is doing.
Here's the proof that being correct the most often doesn't always mean you're the best analyst.
12:00 PM on Fri Feb 22 2008
By torif
4,694 views,
30 comments
Latest by NetStockAnalyst: From Yahoo's message board: A most interesting fact about the top quoted analyst of this industry is that he happens to likely have the worst track record of advising on stocks - stocks which, for the most part have outperformed the more »
feature
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Analyzing the Analysts, Episode One
We've all seen their work. "Analysts predict PS3 price drop by September." "New DS to be released by Nintendo." "Wii will be the top selling console of 2007." Analysts seem to descend from their mountaintops once a month to tell us the future of the video game industry. So what secret rituals do these soothsayers conduct to get their predictions? And, more importantly, how often are these predictions right?
After a look at ten analysts, 100 predictions, and first hand accounts from video game industry analysts Michael Pachter of Wedbush Morgan Securities and Jesse Divnich of The simExchange, and founder of The simExchange Brian Shiau, we managed to gain a little bit of insight into the murky crystal ball used to prognosticate and pontificate.
12:00 PM on Mon Feb 18 2008
By torif
23,157 views,
65 comments
Latest by Brackynews: @Datheron: Bravo, you've just invoked the "million monkeys" clause in our contract. You're spot on, it doesn't matter who gets it right, SOMEBODY will, what matters is what voice YOU decide to listen to before dropping 30-large of your more »
playstation 3
Analyst: Sony Dropping PS3 80GB Due To Poor Sales; NPD: LOL! No.
Amid rumors that Sony is planning on dropping the 80GB model of the PlayStation 3, instead allegedly focusing solely on its backwards compatibility-free 40GB model, comes speculation from industry analyst Mike Hickey of Janco Partners as to why. He tells GameDaily "A recessionary environment will likely punctuate the 80GB version's relative and absolute retail sales disappointment" pointing to the lower-priced 40GB model as having better "traction" with consumers.
Not necessarily, says the NPD Group, who later told GameDaily that the $100 more expensive 80GB model outsold its lower-end sibling last quarter. The more pricey package may have been more attractive to buyers because of its pack-in software, but still shoots a sizable hole in the theory that the more feature rich PS3 is languishing.
My inner analyst thinks Sony is either keen to introduce another top-tier model, sans Playstation 2 playing capabilities, not wanting the current 80 gigger around to make it even more confusing. Back in your cage, inner analyst.
Sony Ditching 80GB PS3 Due to Poor Sales, says analyst [GameDaily]
analyst
Software Sales To Top $10 Billion In '08
2007 saw a huge leap in video games sales over the previous year, with software sales alone jumping 34% to $8.64 billion, and Lazard Capital Markets analyst Colin Sebastian sees no signs of the growth trend stopping. Despite the U.S. economy being on the brink of (or waist-deep in, depending on who you ask) a recession, Sebastian predicts that the software market will see sales topping $10 billion by the end of this year.
"We note that over the 1990-91 and 2001-02 recessionary periods, new consoles launched successfully and became significant drivers of growth for several years. As such, we believe it is unlikely that decreasing consumer confidence and economic growth would meaningfully impact video game sales in 2008."In other words, gamers give a damn about what the economists say. Recession, reshmession - we need our games.
Analyst: US Game Sales to Top $10 Billion in 2008 [Next Generation]
take-two interactive
Analyst "Convinced" That Take-Two Will Be Swallowed
Take-Two bigwig Strauss Zelnick may not be interested in selling the company to another buyer, but Janco Partners analyst Mike Hickey says the publisher "will eventually be acquired at a meaningful premium to their current share price." Hickey values the Rockstar Games portfolio alone at about $1 billion, which doesn't even begin to cover the other big Take-Two intellectual properties—BioShock, Carnival Games, Civilization—all of which could make the company very attractive to buyers. Sure, it may involve a few headaches when Manhunt 3 kills some poor grandmother because it's just that dangerous, but you've gotta break a few eggs.
Hickey also points to "opportunities" in the GameDaily BIZ report, such as sequels to Red Dead Revolver, Max Payne and a theoretical Grand Theft Auto MMO as nice-to-haves. Maybe I'll just buy them and expense it.
Take-Two Acquisition Looming, Predicts Analyst [GameDaily.biz]
predictions
Analyst Sees Multimedia Hubs Dominating in 2008
Piers Harding-Rolls not only has a name way cooler than yours will ever be. He's also a senior analyst at media (analyst) firm Screen Digest. And he thinks that 2008 will belong to the PlayStation 3 and Xbox 360.
Now that these multi-media services - online video, IPTV, digital terrestrial TV and PVR functionality - are now available or poised to come on line in different markets, this 'hub' strategy is emerging as a key console battleground for Microsoft and Sony.Hmm, most people thought the PS3 struggled because it lacked games, not multimedia features. And unless Sony will be bringing that sweet PS3 DVR functionality to the US, there's massive hole in their plan for the time being. As for the 360, aside from DivX, their multimedia functionality has gone quiet as of late.
PS3 Primed for 2008 Comeback - Screen Digest [nextgen]
sales
Wii and Xbox 360 Close In December
Pach attack! Analyst Michael Pachter is predicting a very close December in console sales. Based upon Thanksgiving figures in which the Wii edged out the 360, Pachter predicts the Wii winning December, but by the narrowest of margins:
These figures imply that Microsoft will sell 1.5 million Xbox 360s in December in the U.S., that Nintendo will sell 1.7 million Wiis, and that Sony will sell around 800,000 PS3s.Wow these figures are close. But I wonder what these projections would look like if Nintendo had no production limits...if only you had a slightly different, parallel dimension when you needed one.
Wii and Xbox 360 Sales Neck and Neck in December, says Analyst [gamedaily] [image]
