Market intelligence experts IDC have released a report detailing their projections for Windows Vista uptake among business and personal computers for the coming year. Not surprisingly, home users are expected to make up the bulk of Windows Vista users, with 90% of new computers shipping with the shiny new OS. The corporate world, being understandably wary of adopting new software too early, are predicted to have a much lower uptake rate of 35%. My day job still loads Windows 2000 on new PCs, so I don't expect to see Vista here anytime soon.

Note that these are projections for new computer users and not upgrades, which are expected to be much, much lower. I'd be interested to see the projected adoption rate among gamers, a market Microsoft is furiously pursuing with the lure of Vista-only games like Halo 2.

I'm sitting on the fence. I can certainly see the potential of Vista, but ever since I worked computer phone support during the Windows 95 launch, new operating systems make me twitch uncontrollably.

Full press release after the jump.

Windows Vista: First-Year Consumer Uptake Projected to Surpass Enterprise Uptake, According to IDC
Wednesday November 29, 8:00 am ET

FRAMINGHAM, Mass.—(BUSINESS WIRE)—The forthcoming launch of Microsoft's Windows Vista family of client operating environments will quickly have an impact on the makeup of the worldwide client operating environment market. With calendar year 2007 deployments of Windows Vista projected at 90 million units, IDC believes Windows Vista will quickly displace the majority of shipments of older Windows client operating systems, led by strong acceptance on the consumer front.

During calendar year 2007, Windows Vista Home products are projected to account for 90% of new Windows client operating environments deployed by home users. By comparison, Windows Vista Business and Windows Vista Enterprise will account for 35% of the new Windows client operating environments deployed by business users. During the second full year of availability, Windows Vista Business and Windows Vista Enterprise will grow to account for 80% of new deployments.

"After a long wait, the adoption of Windows Vista will take place almost immediately among consumers, while businesses will follow a decidedly more conservative adoption curve," says Al Gillen, research vice president, System Software at IDC. "Across the product mix, IDC expects to see a healthy movement toward Windows Vista Home Premium, while Windows Vista Ultimate will remain a niche product for some time to come."

During 2007, IDC expects that Windows Vista Home Basic will account for 67% of consumer purchases, with Windows Home Premium capturing 30% of the consumer acquisitions. Windows Vista Ultimate will account for 2% of the worldwide shipments. The balance of Windows Vista consumer shipments are home deployments of Windows Vista Business.

On the business front, 82% of Windows Vista deployments are expected to be the Business edition, while the remaining 18% will be Windows Vista Enterprise.

Through 2010, IDC forecasts Windows client operating environments to experience a 2005-2010 CAGR of 8.2%, leading to a total in excess of 200,000 annual shipments of Windows COEs in 2010.

The IDC study, Worldwide Windows Client Operating Environments 2006-2010 Forecast: Vista Expands Windows COE Market Opportunities But Won't Accelerate Growth (Doc #203733), reviews the performance of the Windows client operating environment (COE) market during 2005 and provides a forecast through 2010 for Windows 95, Windows 98, Windows Me, Windows NT Workstation, Windows 2000 Professional, Windows XP Home, and Windows XP Professional, as well as full-detail forecasts for Windows Vista client products.

To purchase this document, call IDC's Sales hotline at 508-988-7988 or email sales@idc.com.

About IDC

IDC is the premier global provider of market intelligence, advisory services, and events for the information technology, telecommunications, and consumer technology markets. IDC helps IT professionals, business executives, and the investment community make fact-based decisions on technology purchases and business strategy. Over 850 IDC analysts in 50 countries provide global, regional, and local expertise on technology and industry opportunities and trends. For more than 42 years, IDC has provided strategic insights to help our clients achieve their key business objectives. IDC is a subsidiary of IDG, the world's leading technology media, research, and events company. You can learn more about IDC by visiting www.idc.com.

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Michael Fahey