• analyst

    Nintendo DS Successor By End of Year?

    With Nintendo DS sales slowing in Japan, could Nintendo have a successor waiting in the wings? Wedbush Morgan analyst Michael Pachter think so, telling investors in a note that Nintendo "has a new handheld device ready for launch in [Japan] before the end of the calendar year," according to a report from Edge Online.

    In fact, it's those cooling hardware sales on the DS that may force Nintendo to react, making an end-of-year announcement more likely, Pachter writes. The DS has been regularly outsold by the PSP for the past few months in Japan, with marquee software releases doing little to boost matching hardware sales. More »

    1:40 PM on Thu Jul 31 2008
    By Michael McWhertor
    7,680 views, 112 comments

    Latest by freespeech1: @ComradeStalin86: kotaku is gay!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! more »

  • it prints money

    Pachter Says Nintendo Hasn't Abandoned Core Gamers

    Add Wedbush Morgan analyst Michael Pachter (and possibly a few of his less famous co-workers) to the list of folks who believe that Nintendo has not yet shrugged off the "core" gamer. According to a report from Gamasutra, Pachter has weighed in on Nintendo's E3 showing, saying "We think that Nintendo focused upon building upon its formidable lead with the mass market, and do not consider the lack of major hard core game announcements to be an abandonment of its core."

    The "core" may still be hanging its head, waking up in cold sweats to the sound of Wii Music clanging through their heads, but that doesn't mean Nintendo isn't doing spectacularly on the financial side.

    Pachter figures that the Big N will pull in some $3.9 billion for the quarter, adding up to a $17.7 billion take for the entire year. If Nintendo has indeed abandoned the core, who could blame 'em? That's "fuck you" money, right there.

    Pachter: Nintendo To Report $3.91b In Q1 Sales, Hasn't Abandoned Core [Gamasutra]

    8:00 PM on Mon Jul 28 2008
    By Michael McWhertor
    2,869 views, 82 comments

    Latest by fuchikoma: Just because Pachter won an analyst-off doesn't mean that he's that important. I see him on the level of just another more »

  • we're in the money

    Good News: Pachter Says We are Wealthy!

    Alright, alright, forgive the distortion, but if you've bought a next-gen console — and worldwide, more than 60 million of us have — then you are "wealthy or hardcore gamers," according to everyone's favorite video game software analyst, Michael Pachter. I don't consider myself hardcore. And my aforementioned $1,500 rent apparently qualifies me as wealthy.

    Pachter's reasoning, in comments to GamePro, is that the next-gen consoles are not truly mass-market items yet, and won't be until their price point dips to $199.

    "Around 90% of last-generation console sales were made at the $199 price point or below," he says. "Only wealthy or hardcore gamers have purchased consoles so far, given that the PS3 is still $399, the 360 is still $349, and the Wii is still $249. When prices drop below $200 (probably in 2010), the mass market [for 360 and PS3] will emerge."

    More »

    12:00 PM on Sun Jun 29 2008
    By Owen Good
    2,240 views, 77 comments

    Latest by griffinrider: You're missing the "OR". I assume most of us here are hardcore enough to invest in one. I also know people with more »

  • grand theft auto iv

    Pachter: GTA IV So Did Not Drive Console Sales

    I know, we don't run many of these predictions anymore, but I've an inkling this one's on the money, so up it goes. Analyst Michael Pachter has rolled the goat's bones, read the tea leaves and predicted that while software sales for May were strong, hardware sales were not. Even though they were supposed to be, with both Microsoft and Sony hoping/expecting a big sales boost in the wake of GTA IV's release. He cites some simExchange and VGChartz numbers in his figures, which as guesstimates aren't as rock-solid as we can hope for, but since the real NPD numbers won't be with us til later in the week, guesstimates are all we've got. Make do.

    10:30 PM on Mon Jun 9 2008
    By Luke Plunkett
    5,636 views, 81 comments

    Latest by freespeech: @freespeech: meant MGS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! more »

  • analysts

    Pachter Earns Financial Times' Number One Award

    The Financial Times/StarMine recently awarded Wedbush Morgan analyst Michael Pachter the designation of number one Earnings Estimator for the Software sector. As Pachter said, "Please note that there is no 'video games industry' and that my performance is compared to the analysts who cover not only video games, but those who cover other software, such as Microsoft, Oracle, and other such companies."

    You may recall our Very Special Kotaku Feature earlier this year titled "Analyzing the Analysts," in which tireless former Kotaku intern Tori Floyd weighed game industry analysts against one another. The result? Wedbush Morgan's Michael Pachter scored the highest among his peers in terms of how often he was correct. Yeah, we totally called it.

    In an email sent to the press titled "Some Tireless Self-Promotion," Pachter discussed the award: More »

    2:20 PM on Thu May 22 2008
    By Leigh Alexander
    1,952 views, 40 comments

    Latest by PearceShea: That's great. The financial times is a fantastic newspaper. And to those that say he's wrong quite a lot: 1. That may more »

  • ziff davis electronic gaming summit 08

    Pachter: Console Price Drops This Holiday

    Analyst Michael Pachter expects a $50 price drop will be hitting both the Playstation 3 and Xbox 360 this holiday, but that it will still be hard for the industry to match last year's extraordinary holiday sales.

    Speaking at the Electronic Gaming Summit this afternoon, Pachter said that he expects an overall slowdown in video game sales over the next three years.

    Pachter expects the industry to see 19 percent growth in the U.S. and 20 percent in Europe this year, with his predicted price drop this holiday. Next year, Pachter expects growth to dip to 16 and 18 percent, unless the consoles drop another $100, which would add another five percent to growth. In 2010 growth will slow to 10 percent and seven percent, unless consoles drop in price by $150, Pachter said.

    By the year 2011 Pachter predicts that the industry will flatline unless a new console is introduced.

    Wait. That means that game sales will flatten out after six years unless we get a new console. There goes Microsoft's hopes for a seven year console and Sony's plans for a ten year one.

    2:00 PM on Tue May 20 2008
    By Brian Crecente
    3,714 views, 72 comments

  • console wars

    Pachter Predicts PS3 Outsold Xbox 360 In April, Wii To Dominate All

    If NPD sales results can be epic, then this Thursday's expected sales data from the research group will be epic. Microsoft and Sony went head to head with near identical versions of Grand Theft Auto IV, a battle sure to result in carefully crafted post-NPD reveal statements with spun gold. GTA IV assuredly moved some hardware, but who will win the April skirmish? In that particular head-to-head Wedbush Morgan analyst Michael Pachter says the PlayStation 3 pulled ahead—his SimExchange counterparts disagree. Neither, Pachter predicts, will be able to overcome the staggering power that is the Wii. More »

    6:00 PM on Mon May 12 2008
    By Michael McWhertor
    5,843 views, 72 comments

    Latest by Starcade: So the numbers are out. And it's official Pachter = tool. more »

  • sales

    Pachter: Microsoft Doesn't Need To Be First, Just Rich

    We're perpetually interested in the three-way. Because the Microsoft, Nintendo, and Sony multi-billion dollar pillow fight that is the console wars makes for interesting news and highly combustible fanboy fuel. But analyst Michael Pachter feels that Microsoft shouldn't pay so much attention.
    "I personally think that, with a lot of respect for the Microsoft guys...I think they're foolish to even worry about who's first and who's second. I think that's just stupid.
    Stupid?? But I only own a 360 and my street cred is fast-approaching the drain! More »

    11:40 AM on Tue Apr 22 2008
    By Mark Wilson
    5,064 views, 69 comments

    Latest by Gagamus: Microsoft has been emasculated by Nintendo. Period. Microsoft had a one year lead and they completely blew it with overpriced more »

  • analysts

    Pachter Predicts Wii Fit Win

    Wedbush Morgan's gaming guru Michael Pachter sees big things for Nintendo's Wii Fit in North America, where the combination personal trainer and balance board are slated for a May 19th release. The analyst predicts the package could sell upwards of 4 million units if Nintendo does it up right.

    "I really don't know what the spend will be, but it could be 10 - 12% of projected sales. If we assume a retail price of $100, that's $10 million in marketing for each 1 million units sold. If they go mainstream (have Oprah demo the device), I could see them selling 3 - 4 million, maybe more. That suggests the potential for $30 - 40 million in marketing.]
    In fact, Pachter says that Nintendo of America President Reggie Fils-Aime himself indicated that they plan to back the title with the biggest marketing campaign in the company's history. If I were to speculate I'd probably aim for a more conservative number, but then again my financial analysis experience is limited to predicting whether or not a charge for pizza will clear before my paycheck, and even then I am usually wrong. I wonder if Pachter does requests?

    Update: Pachter informed us that the New York Post writer never spoke to him and misquoted the article's original Game Daily source. Updated text accordingly.

    Report: Nintendo Planning 'Biggest Ever' Marketing for Wii Fit Launch     [GameDaily]

    10:20 AM on Wed Apr 2 2008
    By Mike Fahey
    1,701 views, 55 comments

    Latest by freespeech: if it's on oprah then it's going to sell like hot cakes!!!!! or crack depending on where you hail more »

  • nintendo

    Pachter: Wii Shortage? Blame The Lousy US Dollar

    Wedbush Morgan analyst and Kotaku reader idol Michael Pachter went on record with the Dallas News with his theory on one reason it's still so damn hard to find a Wii. The United States dollar, he's paraphrased as saying, is so limp, that Nintendo is shipping excess consoles to Europe to meet demand there, squeezing out a bit of extra profit when all is said and done. It's not like Nintendo is completely abandoning American gamers—it sold 432,000 Wiis in February—it may just be allocating stock to its first class customer base.

    Don't despair, though, if you're holding a copy of Brawl with nothing to play it on. Mr. Pachter thinks that with European demand leveling off, Nintendo may shift some of those Wiis Stateside. Stop burning your Euros in protest, please. It'll just breed contempt.

    Wii shortage may finally be near an end [Dallas News - thanks, Brian!]

    8:40 PM on Mon Mar 31 2008
    By Michael McWhertor
    3,127 views, 65 comments

    Latest by freespeech: it's sold out every single system since it's creation (in more than one country), IT"S NOT A FAD!!!!!!!!!!!!! more »