lets wait till we get some decent impressions and demos out first

I have no doubt GTA IV is going to be as popular as Halo 3, but those figures are pushing it.

at least its not coming out during the flood, that way i can afford it.

@XGamerX: We might want the news and demos and confirmation that it's good but Joe Gamer out in Suburbia or Urban Apartment building #11971007711 could cares less. He's just going to buy the game.

All the same, demo please.

Its coming out on 2 platforms, so I would hope that it sells more than a 1 platform game...

Ehh never been much a fan of GTA series.

that's the stupidest prediction i've ever read.

9.5 sales over 2 platforms of course.

Which is like a doublekiller app... This is maddness!

@XGamerX: Demo? Why? they dont have to convince anyone. IT IS going to sell...

@TOWER_JUNKIE:

i'd believe those numbers if it was also on PC

I can't see them ever releasing a demo for this. It just doesn't feel right.

Is it just me... or does it look like he has the traditional GTA claw-hands in that picture?

@mystic54:

That's what I was thinking.

"a SHITTON of money" - why can't i make a SHIT TON OF CASH instead of just SHIT?

Spread some $$ love over here

9.5 Mil? In one day? No chance in hell

@mentalboy11: i wouldn't believe those numbers if it was coming out on the PC atleast not selling wise

That number doesnt seem all that ludicrous when you think about. I would say that GTA's popuarity is on par with Halo 3. It is being released on two platforms so it could happen.

@Bleentastic:

maybe download wise, lol.

@Ollivander: First week, man.

So, I mean, it's not like it would beat Halo or anything. 300 million in a day? No way. But, it'll definitely sell more in the long run.

I thought the local kotaku venacular was "fuckton"?

@Indy_aka_Rex: You must remember my dear sir is that the traditional "claw-hands" are a staple of the post Grand Theft Auto 3 Series. It's as iconic as running over prostitutes.

On Topic- It it be nice if GTAIV made that much sales. In my deepest of hearts do I believe that?...no, not really. I think this prediction is pushing just a little.

I thought the local kotaku venacular was "fuckton"? Or is that just in monetary instances?

@Detha: Oh, well, oh. I was hopin' I wasn't smarter than everyone else here. $170 million on its first day in regards to Halo.

Yeah, I'd say it's pretty possible to make more money than Halo on its opening week, but I still doubt it.

I still haven't bought halo 3. I will be calling in sick the day this game comes out.

It's effin Grand Theft Auto!!@!!!@##

This is completely stupid. Vice city outsold San Andreas on the PS2 13 million to 12 million over the game's entire life, including bargain copies. Everyone expected Liberty City Stories to move PSPs, instead it was Crisis Core.

I loved the GTA3 trilogy, but 10 million in its first week? Bollocks. First off, this series has always been better on the PC where it is moddable. Second, as popular as it is, a lot of parents don't mind little Jimmy playing Halo 3, but thanks to Hot Coffee they'll think twice about getting GTA IV. Third, the GTA3 trilogy sold on the consoles when there were tens of millions of PS2's in the wild; between PS3's and XBox360's there are only 15 million households even able to play the game.

Who pays these analysts, and why aren't they paying Kotaku readers instead? Apparently geeks, gamers, and 14-year-old high school dropouts are better able to predict the gaming market than highly paid analysts. But then again, sometimes I think a monkey with a dartboard could make better predictions than these hacks.

I don't agree. It will do really well, and it will probably come close because it's on two platforms (one of which is the PS3, and let's be honest, there just aren't that many of them out there), but judging by the way reservations are going at my store compared to Halo 3, I don't think it's going to be as big. Even when it was slated to come out in October there wasn't that much of a desire for it.

That may have to do with the fact that Rockstar knew it wasn't going to make it on time and held back their marketing campaign, but I still don't see five hundred people showing up for the launch like they did for Halo 3.

I don't agree. Even when the game was slated to come out in October, we didn't have near the amount of reservations at my store for GTA as we did for Halo. That could be due to the fact that Rockstar knew they weren't going to make the date and held back their marketing campaign, but I still don't see five hundred people showing up for the launch like they did for Halo 3.

There's no way. Not even close. GTA is biggest in the US and the current combined install base of the 360 and PS3 in North America is right around 9.5 million. While that number will grow quite a bit by time GTA4 comes out, and the game will still sell well in other areas, it's still like predicting a 70% attach rate in the first week. First month, maybe, but still really, really pushing it. Lifetime, no problem.

Ack, sorry for the double post.

@alaren: "Third, the GTA3 trilogy sold on the consoles when there were tens of millions of PS2's in the wild; between PS3's and XBox360's there are only 15 million households even able to play the game."

Too right sir. I for one could care less about GTA... and I won't be buying it. Most of the typical GTA players aren't even nexgen owners I'd believe, they are still playing Madden on their PS2.

There's not that many consoles, PS3 and 360 combined to reach that number.

Bullshit.

Yeah!

Errr... I mean no.

Guys please, never use this leaked screenshot in any GTA4 main article again. It's just not right.

I'd like to see the bonus checks that arrive in the mailboxes of those developers...initial reaction says 8.1 million is a lot to sell in just one week, but since they're pushing close to Christmas it just might be possible. GTA does shovel out a lot of marketing, TV, web, and IRL; if they bloat up the hype and get good reviews before the game hits shelves, 8 million doesn't seem unachievable.

The whole GTA thing is wearing thin unless they have some thing new! I mean a prettier sand box is not going to do it and those mission better be more than button mini games cuz every one is mini game out it seems... or is a HD mini game ok? I'm not sure... guess we will see..

I actually have a feeling that GTA VI is going to be something of a disappointment, relatively speaking. I don't think it'll flop, just that people are going to say the series appears to be running out of steam, you could say.
I have no hard evidence to base that on. Just anecdotal things. People I talk to and such, mentioning the game doesn't really get much of a reaction beyond, "cool"; I also don't see the mainstream media hype being there as much, if at all, this time. GTA games are "old news" now. Not to mention the (relatively) high price of entry for a lot of casual/Madden gamers, who are mostly the ones who bought those games, on the 360 and PS3.

Basically, it'll easily blow past the 1 million sold mark but be the lowest selling game in the series (excluding the PSP version), despite it being cross platform.
Also, barring the ad campaign showing or making clear it's the 360 version, I wouldn't be at all surprised to see the PS3 version sell about as well- if not better than- the 360 version.

@KeyonSumner: "its as iconic as runing prostitutes over"
roflmao!!!!! XD

@Mr. Fap☆Fap!:
I respectfully disagree. I still go back and play San Andreas even though I got 100% a while back. It's something in the atmosphere of the game. It just sucks you in. And belive me, they've gotten better and better. Never have I cared so much about a storyline than in San Andreas. III was ok, VC was pretty good, but SA was amazing. I really cared what happened. If anything, IV will be even better.

Some how i think that 9.5mil will happen to "UR MR GAY" by this year end... GTAIV? maybe not so much, it will sell good, for it's GTA... but that good? i don't know.

gta 4 might just totally bomb.

from what i've heard, the behind closed doors e3 2007 showing completely sucked.

Hmm, some how I really can't see that. Although I can see it passing Halo 3 because... well multiple systems, but nearly 10 mill first week? I dunnoooo.

9.5 million is way too high. There just aren't enough 360s/PS3s out there to warrant those high sales.

I'm don't know much about those GTA games... I thought it was coming out on xbox first. Is it gonna be a simultaneous release? And when was it delayed to?

5 mil, 7 mil, 10 mil... either way my TTWO shares are sleeping easy, awaiting their shower of gold. Whether you like GTA or not, might as well make some money off of the phenomenon.

if pachter doesn't say it i don't believe it :P

I believe this game will be a total flop.
*Yes I believe.

as other posters have already mentioned, it should easily surpass halo3 considering its on more than one platform. 9.5m is not unreasonable.

While it may be on two systems, I don't know that the install base of the PS3 is enough to make it as big as this guy thinks. Even if the install base of the PS3 was equal to the 360, I think those numbers are pretty high.

And of course, that's assuming that most everyone with a PS3 and a 360 buy GTA 4, which I don't expect to happen. GTA fans may be devoted, but I don't think its near the level of slavish devotion as Halo. Most Halo fans would buy a 360 just for Halo 3. Would GTA fans be devoted enough to GTA to buy a console just for GTA4?

You don't get quite the same level of devotion from GTa fans as you do from Halo fans.

@KamatariSeta: I don't know about that. I believe many people bought PS2s just to play the GTA games that were on it, especially in America.

Nah, I dont see those #'s happening unless there's over 40 million PS3's and 360's combined. People already bought the 360 for Halo, and people will buy PS3's for Metal Gear, not GTA since it's going to be on both consoles. and you are not going to get people off Madden, MLB, NCAA, Halo3, and Gears from x-box Live to run around and highjack cars.. 360 players already did that with that one game, wait?! 2 games already.

I honestly need to see more of this game. If its exactly the same as all the other GTA's I doubt people will want to buy it on the first week. I would rather save my money for other things

I doubt these numbers, and I doubt the game's value. But Ill still be getting it on 360, le sigh.

$10 says it does close to the estimate.

People may have been very fond of GTA circa 04-05, with Vice City and San Andreas, but is the passion still there? Does the GTA fanbase have as much drive as the Halo fanbase? And is it nearly as big as the Halo fanbase? I'm not so sure.