That pic reminds me of the last time i cooked up dynamite with tyler.

I think the Wii with it's broad appeal will be first to 30 mil. The PS3 won't make it that far without a price cut and a jaw-droppingly awesome exclusive, and so far both of those seem distant or elusive.

Of course, if women wore gloves all the time, Maxim would feature covers with fingernail crack peaking out.

That's hilarious! I've got to find a way to work that joke into conversations today.

Wii will hit 30 million if NIN. can release some compelling exclusives for Nintendo fans, which of course they usually do.

30 million PS3s is a bit to ask at $599, maybe when it is $399 or lower. Could be years.

360 can hit it with price drops, esp. with H3 and Mass Effect this year, and GTA IV buyers. Still, $399 is a lot of money, could be years before we talk 30 mil.

Wii will first hit 30 Million and it is a really hard toss up for who will NOT reach 30 million.

PS3 might not cause price and lack of attraction.
360 might not cause, well sells have slowed down dramatically if anyone has noticed...hmm

The DS, of course.

Not gonna lie - fingernail cracks are pretty hot.

If you count the DS, it's already done. They're at ~42 million.

In fact, it's outselling the PS2 week-by-week with the launches aligned. By about 10,000,000 units now.

If it's just consoles, then it's pretty obvious that it'd be Wii. 360 still hasn't gotten to 10 million and they've been sitting right on the borderline since before Christmas. PS3 isn't even in the running anymore, and Wii is almost at 7 million and selling out every week.

By the end I imagine they will all hit 30m, just going to be a ways til then.

The DS with another nice price drop will sell more than the PS2, and with a boat load of games has the better chance to be the most selling console ever, the wii has a good chance to reach high sales, then the 360 and in the last place PS3, maybe the ps3 will sell more in like 3 or 4 years but when that happens wii the ds and the 360 will have very massive sells...

I'm not all that sure the 360 will reach the 30 million mark.

Last time both the also-rans (Xbox, GC) sold about 20 mil right? So only one of the three made it to 30...

I'd guess Wii, but it's still possible the public could decide in a year or two that actually, yes they do care more about graphics than anything else, and lose interest... hasn't happened yet though so I'm hopeful, I just don't feel like I can make any definite predictions about its long-term success.

Of course, if women wore gloves all the time, Maxim would feature covers with fingernail crack peaking out.

True.

And if one is a long-time Nintendo fan who has learned to tolerate cartridges when everyone else had CD-Roms, mini-disc thingys when everyone else had full size DVDs, and 480p when everyone else is in high definition, the mere news of a 30-second video trailer for virtual console games would be greeted as amazing news.

Also true in my case...how sad.

All these comments are about sales, yet the 30 million mark is the number shipped.

@Raspberry Jowls:
Sales have a direct impact on the number shipped. When consoles are plentiful and are easily found on store shelves (people aren't buying), then less will be shipped.

@Raspberry Jowls:

And you're talking about a PS2 where lots of people have replaced old ones for say a slim version or because they're constantly breaking.

fingernail crack?

what the fuck does that mean?

comon, no one thinks the NGage 2 will hit 30Mil?

Jump into my fantasy world folks!

:D

@aestheticity: Google Image it. Go on, I dare ya.

Ok, and how much PS2s did Sony ship since then, over five years time? Another 90mil (correct me if I'm wrong)? Now I can hardly imagine anything apart the DS to even getting close to that in any forseeable future.

It's very easy to see the Wii reach 30 million because of the sales and the way gamers combo it with a high graphic powered console (PS3 or 360). The thing is, it's not really a direct competitor to the other two consoles as it can overlap with them. It wouldn't make sense to see the three first parties split in market shares to like %33.33 each (or any other split in the pie) when I can see lots of Xbox 360s and Wiis owned together by gamers as their combo choice of gaming just because of prices and games being available(and exclusive) between the two consoles.

Some people are right that all three consoles are likely to reach at least 30 million units shipped (I don't know about sold). The real thing I look at here is, the PS3 is the highest candidate to not reach 30 million. But it all depends on how Sony plays out this generation with their pricing and strategy. One thing is for sure though, third parties are not flocking to Sony this generation.

Of course, if women wore gloves all the time, Maxim would feature covers with fingernail crack peaking out.

LOL.. you fucking genius! so true.

@MaxS: Of course not. Wii is still having production issues. PS2s were easy to make and were able to get sent out to the market in troves.

I will agree with Gehirnesser in that the success of the PS2 may have been affected by the failure of its hardware, though. I mean, if you had a huge library of games and the system that plays them craps out on you, what else can you do other than buy a new one? They all crapped out right outside of the warranty period, so a repair was about half of the cost of the system itself and all you'd get was your crappy 2-year old semi-working system back. Better to just get a new one.

Personally, I've had to repair at least a dozen PS2s and I only just bought my first one for myself a month ago (which I've already had to repair... stupid worm gear).

The difference is that the DS isn't having these issues and it's STILL outselling the PS2 on a weekly aligned basis. It'd be hard to prove that the sales are all a result of old DS owners upgrading to DS Lite, but I can see a few thousand doing so.

Anyway, I know the numbers aren't fully accurate, but it's still a pretty good estimate. http://www.vgchartz.com/ has the information available for comparisons and such, and they just updated the numbers today. Looks like next NPD or Simple 2000 update will push Wii over the seven million mark. Though sadly, we can only compare based on Japanese numbers, it's still a viable comparison.

...let's see if this works.

http://vgchartz.com/japconscomps.php?name1=PS2&name2=DS&ty...

@Narsil: I just did and there's nothing.

I don't get it either...

The Wii will be the first to reach 30 million if they can make that many before developers learn enough about the other two systems to make people forget about the Wii.

@Narsil: i just did and nothing. dont care anymore