Kotaku
Could Metal Gear Solid 4: Guns of the Patriots (it's been a long day) be the last of the great exclusives? A Reuters article explores this possibility, explaining that game development is becoming far too costly for third-party developers to concentrate on any one console. Take MGS4, for instance. Assistant Producer Ryan Payton claims that the game will have to sell over a million copies on the first day of release to recoup the enormous development costs the game has accrued. A tall order, especially considering that only two PS3 games have reached the million mark since the system was released, much less on the first day, so it is easy to see how unattractive exclusives have become. At least Sony is prepared for the end of exclusivity.
"We understand publishers are needing to recoup their investment," said Peter Dille, senior vice president of marketing for Sony. "From our perspective, as long as the games aren't going exclusive to other platforms, PS3 gamers are not actually losing anything."
You see that? As long as other consoles aren't getting exclusives, the gamers aren't losing anything. Just repeat that over and over in your head the next time something like Devil May Cry suddenly shows up on the Xbox 360.
"Metal Gear Solid 4" last of the great exclusives? [Reuters via GameDaily.biz]
Comments
xbox 360 port no whammy
i'm dying to play something great on my ps3 and i'm sure others are too. this will have no problem selling a mill on day 1.
Not to be a jerk, but it's "Guns of the Patriots" not "Sons of Liberty".
um... is that Snake copping a feel? o_O
worldwide launch? 1 million in one day is no problem. I foresee 1.5 million
Gaming will die soon... dev costs for these new systems are crazy and they will only get worse.
first comment, registered for this post.. I WILL BUY IT DAY ONE :)
<3 mgs
There's no way that's going to happen on day 1. Not even Mario Galaxy sold half that.
That's pretty unreasonable expectations. What were the 2 PS3 games that hit 1 million (I know Resistance is one)?
Why is it so important that they have to sell 1 million copies in specifically ONE day before they can turn a profit?
Couldn't they sell that same million in a week and still make a profit after?
not gonna happen - few games could sell 1 million in one day - never mind on a console that has a small user base.
It will sell well - but not a million in a day.
And isnt final fantasy XIII gonna be a gerat exclusive? or is it too far away for anyone to acknowledge that it exsists?
@DefiantGSR: Pachter, is that you?
@Oyako: I'm sure the MGS team agrees, and they're all gearing up for their follow up to MGS4... a puzzle game where you try to match unexploded grenades, then pull the pins.
MyWhiteNoise: They didn't say that they expected it or it's going to happen. They merely stated thats whats needed to make a profit on day one.
Sons of Liberty, eh?
In other news the sky is blue, the pope is catholic, and bears do in fact shit in the woods.
Normally I'd agree but with the PS3 being more powerful than the 360, the PS3 needs those exclusives so games can take advantage of the hardware. Killzone 2 being a prime example.
If this really becomes the norm, then "next-gen" will just mean "lowest common denominator".
More like all gamers are losing here.
Fanboy Wars! GO!!
XD Million copies day one... Not going to happen. I'm sorry, I realize the franchise is popular, and I'm a huge Kojima fan. Hell, I will buy a PS3 within a 2 months of the games release assuming there are no multiplat rumors floating around.
But, think of some of the content of past MGS games. They have been very well selling NICHE products to a pool of 100 million plus PPL. Breaking 1 million sales, Day 1, on a (estimated) 10 million install base? No wai!
Why would they need to sell 1 million copies on day one? Are they going to shut off the lights at Konami if they don't come up with the money by the end of the week after release?! If he simply means that first day sales give an accurate picture of long-term sales for a title then they and every other game publisher need to rethink their release strategies.
1 million in the US or 1 million worldwide?
1 million worldwide, I certainly could see it. 1 million US, no chance.
Either way, exclusivity is coming to an end. It may not be with Metal Gear Solid 4, but it's only a matter of time. The games are just too damn expensive to make for them not to be on both.
We've been down this road too much recently for it to not be obvious what's going to happen.
Thats a tall order. How much did Snake Eater sell?
@mywhitenoise: Motorstorm maybe? I'm not sure either.
Before people get into a hizzy, remember that Metal Gear Solid 4 is having a WORLDWIDE launch. It will easily sell 1 million units in its first day on the market.
This is the biggest game on the PS3 and Japan and America is frothing at the mouth to finally get it.
Sony should have a decent Xmas in terms of hardware sales so the user base will be big enough.
One million one day, no problem...
Metal Gear Solid 4: Sons of Liberty?
....
It's Guns of the Patriots.
What kid on earth would want to go visit Grampa Snake in the retirement village after they hear his stories of testicle squishing wonderment?
@Nkosi:
He's making the exaggerated statement that in a one day time frame they would need to sell over one million copies to pay for the production cost, not that they expect that to happen or in fact NEED it to happen. I guess it would have been more reasonable to say, "We need to sell over a million copies to turn a profit."
Is that worldwide release? Or just one region? Does a timebomb located next to a tied up Kojima get set to 24 hours the second it's released in Japan and the only way to stop it is to reach 1 million sales?
oh, beat'd.
@TaggarT6:
And Jesus was a Jew.
DEAR GASP.
It's not selling 1 million copies. There is only what, 5 million consoles out there? 1/5th of the fanbase isn't going to plod out on release date to buy it.
I think it's a true statement, and why I think it's completely blown out of proportion in the first place. Games like Assassin's Creed and Call of Duty 4 have shown that sharing exclusives doesn't always result in crap for either side, so... what are we losing?
Let's be frank; is Devil May Cry a system seller? Not really. Is it popular? Hell yes. Is it one more thing that might get someone to buy the system if it were exclusive? Again, yes, but I don't think anyone was waiting for Devil May Cry 4 and saying "Now, when THAT comes out, I'm buying a system!"
I could be wrong, but I've heard my friends talking more about first party games being system sellers than 3rd party games... Gran Turismo 5, Halo 3, Super Smash Brothers.
This article was really about how Third Party exclusives are going the way of the dinosaur (which is true) however completely discounted how the first- and second-party developers are really working their asses off to fill that void and give gamers of each system those "system seller" games. The only 3rd Party Exclusive that I could see selling systems beyond Metal Gear Solid is Final Fantasy, and that's still up in the air about going multi-plat.
The article also talked about how the cost of developing next-gen games is in the 10-20 million dollar range, and that, even for a game that might sell systems like MGS4 (I know one person who is holding out for that game before getting a PS3), that 1 million units sold would be an assurance that the game was not a single-platform failure. The article goes on to say that games that only sell half a million are considered "bombs"... and that multiple bombs for big developers sting quite a bit given development costs.
That said, I think they're saying that they need 1 million sales to say it's a bonafide hit, and that's rough for a system that has a little over two million owners (as a PS3 owner, I'm saying this)...
But, as the article also states, all of the console manufacturers are really stepping up their game to provied quality first/second party titles to offset the "loss" of exclusives on third part games... so...
How is the gamer hurting, exactly?
So, if MGS4 doesn't sell 1 million copies day one, then a port will be necessary! MGS 4 on 360 CONFIRMED! SCOOP!
Exclusives? Who cares????
As consumers, all of us should wish for a knock out drag out fight between the console makers, including a price war.
Why? Because it means buying a system will be cheaper than if one company dominates.
And with the PS3 and XBOX 360, games are more or less going to be equal, so no matter which system you get - you win.
There is no use in being a fanboy to companies who simply suck your money away. Who cares if Sony or MS is #1, or which console is #1 or has the most exclusives? Care about your pocket book instead, and hope prices drop on both consoles and games.
PS3 or XBOX 360 - either will do for most people, regardless of which one actually performs better.
Wanna be a fanboy? Be a fanboy of more money in your wallet! Be a fanboy of intense competition between console makers.
Remember this is Konami, that recently admitted they aren't setup for multi-platform development.
[kotaku.com]
Yes they will end up eventually porting MGS4 to the 360 and PC, but don't expect it to come out for at least six months, most likely a year later, assuming it isn't a flop on the PS3.
Is there anyone that still thinks FF13 or MGS will be PS3 exclusive? There's no way Sony can write a check that could possibly cover the amount of money to be made on other platforms.
im an MGS fan and i doubt it'll sell 1 million on day 1.
people say theyre hungry for good games on the PS3 but Ratchett and Uncharted didnt sell well on week 1 and those games are pretty good.
The worst part about this expectation is that things like dragon quest, Mario, Pokemon, call of duty.... All utra-triple-A titles that sold ridiculously well can't and didn't live up to these kind of expectations. I can only think of two games that have and can, Halo and GTA4. Up to a few weeks ago, I would have blindly thrown SMG in there but the fact that it couldn't perform like that just underlines how hard it is to do when you're game is an exclusive. Good luck!
@TaggarT6: bears do in fact, shit in the woods. ahah.
Anywho, I know I shall buy MGS4 on launch day, so slash that figure to 999,999 one day 1.
@Fluffy22: Of course Mario never sold that many - first Mario is not big in Japan anymore and most people that purchase Wii only play Wii sports.
Selling 1 million in the first week for should not even be an issues a day - well time will tell.
@EvilJ:
My first part was referring to the Sony statement of "If you can get it on either, what are gamers losing?"
@Sean Grimm: Yeah, I understood where he was going but I had to point that out because it is very irresponsible journalism on his part.
Apparently you only profit from first day sales. This is a dumb ass statement. They WILL recoup their sales, just not on day one. That game will sell for a long time, don't put your eggs all in one basket, or day.
* on day one
Ratchet and Clank games have never been million sellers in their first week. The most any game in the franchise has sold is a couple of million.
You cannot compare Uncharted (a brand new IP) and Ratchet to games like Final Fantasy and Metal Gear (in terms of sales).
Sounds like Sony might not think this game will be exclusive for them for very long.
What about FFXIII?
@RaepGoblin: As I pointed out earlier, the journalist is a noob.
YU CAN DU IT!!!
@ShirtGuyDom:
HAHA!
@hondo:
Also HAHA!!!It mus be inappropriate day! Between this, the RB story, and the Dominos Ad/story!
@kasplat:
Flop? MGS? Are you high?
Oh yeah....Worldwide release...1mil. no problem.
Also, people realize that this is a stealth game right? That's totally niche. I think it may do very well but I doubt that it's going to magically out perform previous incarnations of itself with no precedence and just based on hype alone. Especially if they ship single and multi-player separately.
@yoni: It's not even close to finished and surely Squeenix would not try staking their second biggest franchise on PS3 exclusivity if the next year proves to be as disastrous for exclusives as the last one was.
As it is, their next big franchise for consoles is multi-platform, so they're clearly testing the waters for multi-plat if nothing else.
It seems odd to me that they would be talking about day 1 sales. That doesn't matter. Total sales in he first 6 months or so do, when most of the sales will happen. Maybe the first month would be weighted the heaviest. But you can't just arbitrarily base everything off of first day sales.
Now I don't think it would be unreasonable to assume that MGS4 will sell a million copies, probably more, and that ought to recoup development costs no problem. This is just silliness.
@Oyako: maybe not gaming, but without content exclusive to PS3 and the 360 they certainly can't both justify (or pay for) their existence for another gaming generation.
Worldwide sales day 1, it could easily do 1 million. But not 1 million in any one territory.
But it also makes no sense for the game to need to sell 1 million on exactly the first day....
On the PS2, MGS3 has sold 3.6 million copies worldwide, and MGS2 has sold 7 million copies worldwide to date. So 1 million day one--even worldwide--on the PS3 is pretty wishful thinking.
AKA - "We're very likely going to be putting this on 360, just warning you ahead of time without coming out and saying it"
@Rebochan:
So, you're saying that FFXIII will by muli-plat?
Smarter development could help. There's no reason for a game's development costs to require 1M sales on day one. If that's the case, there's a serious flaw in the planning of the game.
1 million on day one? No effin' way. Best of luck though.
I reckon that'll be easy for this game, it has more hype than either PS2 predecessors I think. And it'll hopefully be even better.
@Super_Nintendo_Chalmers:
If those numbers are true, then it's logically impossible for it to sell 1 million on day one. That's a full fifth of the PS3 instal base!!
Good luck with that. Worldwide release might pull it off, but it'll be one hell of a feat if they do it. I can see exclusives surviving though, maybe not for the epic games, but for smaller and more tailored games, first party titles and some mega brands that can afford the luxury to focus on a single hardware.