Kotaku: Analyst

Blizzard's Secret Titan Project Labeled a 'New Casual MMO'

Michael McWhertor — Wed, 29 Jun 2011 18:30:00 EDT

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The people who make MMO juggernaut World of Warcraft have another massively multiplayer online game in the works, a game they're calling Titan for now. Blizzard calls it "awesome" and "ambitious." One analyst calls it "casual." More »

Do Game Critic Awards Predict A Game's Retail Success?

Brian Crecente — Thu, 18 Jun 2009 13:00:00 EDT

Game Critics Awards are one of the most sought after badges of honor in the gaming industry, but does wining Best of E3 predict a retail success or impact the sales of a video game? More »

Analyst Predicts Wii Price Drop

AJ Glasser — Fri, 12 Jun 2009 20:40:00 EDT

Wedbush-Morgan's Michael Pachter — the guy that was so harsh on the PSPgo's price tag — thinks the Wii will drop to $199.99 this holiday season More »

Analyst: Sony's $249 PSPgo Is "Too Much"

Michael McWhertor — Wed, 10 Jun 2009 20:00:00 EDT

PSPgo, the newest addition to the PlayStation family, will carry a premium price of $249 USD when it launches this October. That's $80 more than the PSP-3000, a figure considered too high by some gamers—and one analyst. More »

Dueling Analysts: Chinatown Wars Sales Show Mature Game Risk (or Huge Opportunity)

Michael McWhertor — Mon, 13 Apr 2009 21:40:59 EDT

Depending on which analyst you ask, first month sales of Grand Theft Auto: Chinatown Wars are either a worrisome indicator that Mature-rated content simply can't sell on the Nintendo DS—or a great success. More »

Analyst Cautions Wii Investment May Be "Fool's Gold"

Michael McWhertor — Wed, 08 Apr 2009 18:40:20 EDT

Investors looking to score some easy green on Nintendo's little white console may be left blue, particularly if they fall for the "red herring" that is the console's massive install base, says one analyst. More »

Analyst: GameStop Has Nothing To Fear From Amazon

Mike Fahey — Tue, 17 Mar 2009 11:20:00 EDT

Electronic Entertainment Design And Research compares used game trade-in values between GameStop and Amazon.com and finds that brick and mortar is still the way to go. More »

Sony: We Won't Drop Blu-Ray For The PS3

Michael McWhertor — Thu, 12 Mar 2009 15:40:18 EDT

In February, analyst Mike Hickey indicated a PlayStation 3 price drop would hit near the end of the month. Didn't happen. He also passed on speculation that Sony would drop the PS3's Blu-ray drive. More »

Analyst: Lost And Damned Sales At 1 Million, All-New GTA In 2010

Michael McWhertor — Fri, 06 Mar 2009 18:20:00 EST

Rockstar Games and Microsoft haven't disclosed exact sales of the Grand Theft Auto IV expansion The Lost and Damned, only boasting that it has broken Xbox Live Arcade records. But one analyst has a guess. More »

Another Analyst Dates Next Zelda For 2009

Michael McWhertor — Mon, 22 Dec 2008 16:40:31 EST

Analyst Michael Pachter has already gone on record saying that Nintendo's next Zelda game will hit in 2009, but a second has also pegged a Wii follow up to Twilight Princess for next year. More »

Slow Mirror's Edge, Rock Band 2 Sales Could Spur More EA Lay-offs

Michael McWhertor — Mon, 08 Dec 2008 20:00:59 EST

According one analyst, Electronic Arts may be primed for more cutbacks in the wake of weaker than expected sales for a trio of new releases, including Rock Band 2 and Mirror's Edge. More »

Analyst: Sony May Never Break Even On PS3

Michael McWhertor — Wed, 29 Oct 2008 21:30:24 EDT

DFC Intelligence president & senior technology analyst Wanda Meloni spoke at the GameON: Finance 2.0 conference in Toronto, weighing in the major console manufacturers' futures. According to a Gamasutra report from the event in Toronto, Meloni believes that Sony may never break even on the PlayStation 3 platform because of the losses incurred on each console sold. More »

Do E3 Awards Really Matter?

Mike Fahey — Thu, 07 Aug 2008 10:40:00 EDT

On Tuesday we posted the official Best of E3 awards, but do they really make a difference? Do what the critics feel are the best of the best actually translate into higher sales? UBS analyst Ben Schachter seems to think so, compiling this handy chart to prove it. More »

Nintendo DS Successor By End of Year?

Michael McWhertor — Thu, 31 Jul 2008 15:40:45 EDT

With Nintendo DS sales slowing in Japan, could Nintendo have a successor waiting in the wings? Wedbush Morgan analyst Michael Pachter think so, telling investors in a note that Nintendo "has a new handheld device ready for launch in [Japan] before the end of the calendar year," according to a report from Edge Online. More »

Pachter: Rumored Xbox 360 Price, Feature Set Sprucing Could Squeeze Sony

Leigh Alexander — Tue, 01 Jul 2008 18:20:00 EDT

Evidence suggests that the mid-level Xbox 360 might soon see a price drop to $299, and we've seen rumors suggesting that the imminent cut would make way for a new, 60GB Xbox 360. More »

Interview: Pachter Says Console Sales Still OK, But Expect Holiday Price Drops

Leigh Alexander — Fri, 13 Jun 2008 19:20:00 EDT

Wedbush Morgan analyst Michael Pachter said that Nintendo's lead over its competitors in hardware sales is no cause for alarm for Sony and Microsoft, even though console sales in the recent month saw declines Xbox 360 and the Wii declining over the month prior. Even though console sales are still within expectations, the analyst said the Xbox 360 and PS3 will see at least a $50 price reduction by the Holiday. More »

Truth Behind Xbox 360 "Recall" Is Quite Boring

Michael McWhertor — Tue, 10 Jun 2008 21:30:29 EDT

Microsoft has ranged from mum to cagey on the exact source of the hardware issue that has red ringed thousands upon thousands of Xbox 360s, with Robbie Bach chalking it up to a "a Microsoft design issue." While the President of the company's Entertainment & Devices Division would prefer to leave it at that, a report from the EETimes lays blame on the console's graphics chip, one made on the cheap. More »

Analyst: GTA IV To Hit 15 Million This Year

Michael McWhertor — Fri, 06 Jun 2008 17:40:00 EDT

Earlier this year, Hudson Square Research analyst Daniel Ernst issued estimates for Rockstar Games' Grand Theft Auto IV, pegging 2008 sales for the title at 13 million copies. Not a bad take. Analyst analyzers populating the post's comments called that figure into question, with insight ranging from "Durrrr" and "dude is captain obvious" to "unbelievable" and "unrealistic." More »

Analyst: Wii To Lead Hardware, PS3 To Lead Software By 2012

Leigh Alexander — Fri, 30 May 2008 19:20:00 EDT

The Wii is set to break console sales records in 2008, says analyst group DFC Intelligence - but the PlayStation 3 will beat the Wii's software sales by 2012. More »

Analysts Predict Big, Big May On Wii Fit U.S. Launch

Michael McWhertor — Mon, 19 May 2008 20:00:31 EDT

Apparently, $1.23 billion in U.S. sales is a disappointment, from a Wall Street perspective, as Reuters reports that April's reported take sent video game stocks downward. Software sales only seeing 68% growth from the previous year? Unacceptable! Merely $654.7 million in software? Sell, sell, sell! More »

Pachter Predicts PS3 Outsold Xbox 360 In April, Wii To Dominate All

Michael McWhertor — Mon, 12 May 2008 20:00:41 EDT

If NPD sales results can be epic, then this Thursday's expected sales data from the research group will be epic. Microsoft and Sony went head to head with near identical versions of Grand Theft Auto IV, a battle sure to result in carefully crafted post-NPD reveal statements with spun gold. GTA IV assuredly moved some hardware, but who will win the April skirmish? In that particular head-to-head Wedbush Morgan analyst Michael Pachter says the PlayStation 3 pulled ahead—his SimExchange counterparts disagree. Neither, Pachter predicts, will be able to overcome the staggering power that is the Wii. More »

Xbox 360 To Be Europe's "Biggest Loser" Say Analysts

Michael McWhertor — Wed, 30 Apr 2008 21:20:47 EDT

The analysts at DFC Intelligence have gazed into the crystal ball to receive word from the future of the European console war and the news is somewhat of a downer for Sony. But it's far worse for Microsoft. A new report calls for "strong" sales of the PlayStation 3 but that Sony should expect to lose a "big chunk" of the PS2 install base. Wii is expected to dominate, but won't move software like the PS3 may. More »

Analyst Warns Movie Studios That People May Be Playing Games On PS3s

Michael McWhertor — Wed, 23 Apr 2008 18:40:54 EDT

Blu-ray campers may not have as much to boast about, according to one analyst, who questions how big of a contribution the PlayStation 3 install base really is to the format. ABI Research analyst Steve Wilson says that "the state of the Blu-ray player market is not all that encouraging," according to a Next Gen report on the study. More »

Analyst: Game Sales Have Peaked, We're All Doomed

Michael McWhertor — Tue, 22 Apr 2008 20:00:31 EDT

Maybe we're not doomed, but the financial future of retailer GameStop may be less rosy, less "recession proof" if analyst Robert Higginbotham of Goldman Sachs is right. He wrote in an investor note—which I'm so pissed that I missed—that after the release of Grand Theft Auto IV and Wii Fit, "the remainder of the year lacks any big releases, and comparisons get tougher throughout the year as we lap titles such as Halo 3 and Guitar Hero III." More »

"The DS Has Peaked In Japan"

Brian Ashcraft — Fri, 04 Apr 2008 02:00:27 EDT

Gloom and doom! Those living in the US are starting to feel (or maybe, totally feeling) the effects of a downward economy. How will it affect gaming? According to analyst Hiroshi Kamide at KBC Securities Japan, "A recessionary environment is negative for the electronic entertainment industry, but we believe the core gaming market to be more resilient than its casual counterpart." So, core gamers will keep buying, while casual gamers won't. Good news for some companies, bad news for others! "The casual market looks more exposed to an economic downturn, due to its non-essential nature," continues Kamide. "The sector remains 'hit-driven', which provides a positive outlook for the companies with strong core title line-ups." Big games like Metal Gear Solid IV should still perform. What's more, Kamide adds: More »

Analyst: GTA IV Will Smoke The Competition With 13 Million Copies Sold In 2008

Michael McWhertor — Thu, 03 Apr 2008 19:20:57 EDT

If Hudson Square Research analyst Daniel Ernst is right, Rockstar Games and Take-Two are going to have a very merry 2008. Ernst lays out the research firm's "top 20 game unit sales and revenue" for the calendar year, projecting that Grand Theft Auto IV will kill the competition with 13 million copies sold. That would mean GTA IV's sales for the year would exceed that of the Grand Theft Auto III's lifetime to date figure and approach total sales of Vice City. More »

Pachter: Wii Shortage? Blame The Lousy US Dollar

Michael McWhertor — Mon, 31 Mar 2008 22:40:00 EDT

Wedbush Morgan analyst and Kotaku reader idol Michael Pachter went on record with the Dallas News with his theory on one reason it's still so damn hard to find a Wii. The United States dollar, he's paraphrased as saying, is so limp, that Nintendo is shipping excess consoles to Europe to meet demand there, squeezing out a bit of extra profit when all is said and done. It's not like Nintendo is completely abandoning American gamers—it sold 432,000 Wiis in February—it may just be allocating stock to its first class customer base. More »

Pachter: Nintendo Planning A Wii Fit-zkrieg

Michael McWhertor — Fri, 21 Mar 2008 19:40:36 EDT

In a note to investors Wedbush Morgan analyst Michael Pachter says that Nintendo of America is planning to pitch Wii Fit to American consumers with "the biggest marketing campaign in its history." We're pretty sure that means that you, core gamer, won't be able to go anywhere without being surrounded by Wii Fit and the millions of physically fit humans that will ultimately result from its success. More »

Analyst: iPhone Not A Viable Gaming Platform

Michael McWhertor — Wed, 19 Mar 2008 19:20:09 EDT

Playing Super Monkey Ball and Spore on the iPhone sure sounds like a nifty diversion, but is a $400 mobile device really going to be a success as a gaming platform? Not if Wedbush Morgan analyst Michael Pachter's perspective on new ventures from Sega, EA and THQ is spot on. He tells Next-Gen "To the extent that hip, rich people are an interesting gaming audience, iPhone games will work" adding that the demographic will probably "only interested in the most rudimentary games, and that the market will be small." More »

Analyst Predicts Death Of 360 In Japan

torif — Tue, 11 Mar 2008 16:00:04 EDT

Sony may be worried following the 360 price drop in Europe, but according to Wedbush Morgan analyst Michael Pachter, they don't have much to be concerned about. In fact, Pachter predicts that the PS3 will beat out the Xbox 360 in Japan ("killing" it) and Europe (by 20%-40%). He also says that the PS3 may pull ahead of the Xbox 360 in month-on-month sales:

"In the US, I think it will be close all year, with 360 outselling PS3 most months due to its lower price points (at least as long as it remains lower priced)," Pachter told videogaming247. "Sony gains a huge competitive advantage when HD monitor sales pick up at holiday, as I expect retailers to push PS3 as a Blu-ray player to anyone buying an HD monitor. By year-end, I think PS3 will outsell the 360 in the US by a little."

Seems to me that 2008 is shaping up to be an interesting year in the battle of the consoles! Now, we just have to wait and see if Pachter is on the money... More »

In-Game Ads Predicted to Reach $650 Mil By 2012

torif — Tue, 04 Mar 2008 19:40:42 EST

According to the latest report by analyst group eMarketer, the in-game ad industry will grow to $650 million by 2012, more than doubling 2007's $295 million. eMarketer attributes the growth to the overall growth of the video game industry, with game launches overshadowing other big media events. Most recently, Halo 3 generated more in first day sales than the opening weekend of Spiderman 3 (the biggest opening weekend in history) and the first-day sales of Harry Potter and The Deathly Hallows (the final installment in the series). More »

Analyzing the Analysts, Episode Two

torif — Fri, 22 Feb 2008 14:00:00 EST

Monday's feature took a broad, anecdotal look at ten different analysts, explaining a little about who the analysts are and what they do. For your enjoyment and discussion, we present to you today all of the predictions made by the analysts and our verdict on each of them. More »

Analyzing the Analysts, Episode One

torif — Mon, 18 Feb 2008 14:00:42 EST

We've all seen their work. "Analysts predict PS3 price drop by September." "New DS to be released by Nintendo." "Wii will be the top selling console of 2007." Analysts seem to descend from their mountaintops once a month to tell us the future of the video game industry. So what secret rituals do these soothsayers conduct to get their predictions? And, more importantly, how often are these predictions right? More »

Analyst: Sony Dropping PS3 80GB Due To Poor Sales; NPD: LOL! No.

Michael McWhertor — Fri, 25 Jan 2008 19:20:31 EST

Amid rumors that Sony is planning on dropping the 80GB model of the PlayStation 3, instead allegedly focusing solely on its backwards compatibility-free 40GB model, comes speculation from industry analyst Mike Hickey of Janco Partners as to why. He tells GameDaily "A recessionary environment will likely punctuate the 80GB version's relative and absolute retail sales disappointment" pointing to the lower-priced 40GB model as having better "traction" with consumers. More »

Software Sales To Top $10 Billion In '08

Mike Fahey — Wed, 23 Jan 2008 12:00:05 EST

2007 saw a huge leap in video games sales over the previous year, with software sales alone jumping 34% to $8.64 billion, and Lazard Capital Markets analyst Colin Sebastian sees no signs of the growth trend stopping. Despite the U.S. economy being on the brink of (or waist-deep in, depending on who you ask) a recession, Sebastian predicts that the software market will see sales topping $10 billion by the end of this year.

"We note that over the 1990-91 and 2001-02 recessionary periods, new consoles launched successfully and became significant drivers of growth for several years. As such, we believe it is unlikely that decreasing consumer confidence and economic growth would meaningfully impact video game sales in 2008."

In other words, gamers give a damn about what the economists say. Recession, reshmession - we need our games. More »

Analyst "Convinced" That Take-Two Will Be Swallowed

Michael McWhertor — Thu, 20 Dec 2007 17:40:25 EST

Take-Two bigwig Strauss Zelnick may not be interested in selling the company to another buyer, but Janco Partners analyst Mike Hickey says the publisher "will eventually be acquired at a meaningful premium to their current share price." Hickey values the Rockstar Games portfolio alone at about $1 billion, which doesn't even begin to cover the other big Take-Two intellectual properties—BioShock, Carnival Games, Civilization—all of which could make the company very attractive to buyers. Sure, it may involve a few headaches when Manhunt 3 kills some poor grandmother because it's just that dangerous, but you've gotta break a few eggs. More »

Analyst Sees Multimedia Hubs Dominating in 2008

Mark Wilson — Mon, 17 Dec 2007 15:40:17 EST

Piers Harding-Rolls not only has a name way cooler than yours will ever be. He's also a senior analyst at media (analyst) firm Screen Digest. And he thinks that 2008 will belong to the PlayStation 3 and Xbox 360.

Now that these multi-media services - online video, IPTV, digital terrestrial TV and PVR functionality - are now available or poised to come on line in different markets, this 'hub' strategy is emerging as a key console battleground for Microsoft and Sony.

Hmm, most people thought the PS3 struggled because it lacked games, not multimedia features. And unless Sony will be bringing that sweet PS3 DVR functionality to the US, there's massive hole in their plan for the time being. As for the 360, aside from DivX, their multimedia functionality has gone quiet as of late. More »

Wii and Xbox 360 Close In December

Mark Wilson — Mon, 03 Dec 2007 15:20:32 EST

Pach attack! Analyst Michael Pachter is predicting a very close December in console sales. Based upon Thanksgiving figures in which the Wii edged out the 360, Pachter predicts the Wii winning December, but by the narrowest of margins:

These figures imply that Microsoft will sell 1.5 million Xbox 360s in December in the U.S., that Nintendo will sell 1.7 million Wiis, and that Sony will sell around 800,000 PS3s.

Wow these figures are close. But I wonder what these projections would look like if Nintendo had no production limits...if only you had a slightly different, parallel dimension when you needed one. More »

Pachter Predicts Pair Of Guitar Hero Expansions In 2008

Michael McWhertor — Tue, 27 Nov 2007 23:00:00 EST

Wedbush Morgan analyst and all-powerful seer Michael Pachter has weighed in on the future of Guitar Hero. He and his analyst buddies are receiving messages from the ether that tell them the franchise will move over 7 million copies in 2007, dropping to 6.3 million the following year. How will Activision and RedOctane keep pace? By issuing a pair of expansion packs! More »

Analysts Put Microsoft Studio Departures Under Analyzer

Michael McWhertor — Tue, 23 Oct 2007 20:40:00 EDT

The "loss" of Bungie and the closing of FASA Studio, paired with the third-party snatching up of Bizarre Creations and Bioware-Pandemic led Newsweek blogger N'Gai Croal to key his editorial on a Microsoft "shell shocked" by losses, writing that the aforementioned development houses slipping through Microsoft Game Studios' fingers "strongly suggest that the house that Shane Kim built may rest on quicksand." Sure, some may say that's leaning toward internet-appropriate melodrama, but it certainly didn't appear to be a corporate "win-win", Microsoft's description of the Bungie deal. One group that doesn't see it as a Big Deal is the beloved analyst population. More »