Investors looking to score some easy green on Nintendo's little white console may be left blue, particularly if they fall for the "red herring" that is the console's massive install base, says one analyst.
Cowen & Company's Doug Creutz says the Wii may represent "fool's gold for someone looking to invest in video game development" in a new Gamasutra editorial and that investing in cross-platform Xbox 360 and PlayStation 3 development may offer "more control over your fate."
Creutz follows that argument with an opinion that calls the Wii "a bit of a crapshoot for what works and what doesn't."
One foundation of the analyst's reasoning is something we've heard before—that only Nintendo games sell on the Wii. Nintendo has countered that argument, noting that third party publishers have had some success on the platform, with multiple one million-sellers "making it" on the Wii.
But Creutz says that the majority of third party success comes from Guitar Hero and Rock Band, which he writes accounts for one-sixth of Wii sales.
"You're rolling the dice on succeeding in a market which has proved very resistant to generating meaningful hits away from Nintendo titles and the music genre," he writes.
Analyst: Wii Is 'Fool's Gold' For Game Investors [Gamasutra]