Screw EA

HA! ^_^

Seriously, did anyone NOT see this coming?

Not surprising. When the first weeks' sales figures are released, I'll bet that stock just continues to climb.

@Alexander-The-Great: Nope. That's why the hostile takeover didn't work. EA tried to get 'em for a song.

The fact that EA are bidding for them has also contributed to this rise, right?

Well, it comforts me that my predictions are true...

Despite the fact how obvious my predictions may have been...

I guess all those early sellers of T2 stocks are kicking themselves in the balls for bailing out early.

It's going to go even higher, but not by much. I think sales of this game are going to outpace the estimates of analysts. The videogame market is notoriously hard to predict. Expected earnings are incorporated into the stock price but if the sales surpass expectations (which I expect they will), the stock price will continue to rise.

If Take 2 continues to restructure effectively, these gains may be sustained. Since Zellnick has taken over, T2 has improved by leaps and bounds.

It doesnt matter EA is doing a hostile takeover because take two believes that GTAIV is being undervalued by analysts. Plus the take over by EA is good for Take Two as a company.

Of course, not only does Take-Two have a major game release, but all the news of the Buyout offer probably raised some interest in the stock.

@Alexander-The-Great:

Give me a break! You didn't see it and not a lot of other people did either.

Article after article about how stupid Take two's decision was to turn down EA's offer, and a lot of posters agreed.

Hardly surprising. I think EA was hoping to get in before the rush. Take-Two holding out for the probable good moolah coming from the release.

Looks like EA may be in a bit of trouble when it tries to acquire Take-Two based on the current terms. Personally I think EA should leave Take-Two alone since Take-Two currently has some great ips that when used to their full potential could allow Take-Two to become one of the leaders in the industry. Take-Two has some great people working for them and I would hate to see any of them lose their jobs because of a buyout. So EA take the hint and leave Take-Two alone, their to good for you.

GTA's sales are already figured into the stock price.

There may be a slight uptick from casual investors who otherwise don't know anything about Take 2 and are just reading the papers now, but the big institutional investors bought in long ago. The stock market is always based on future earnings, it's always priced at least six months (and really usually years) ahead.

The only way the stock moves *significantly* higher than where it is now is if sales of GTAIV actually come in above the 9 million first-month sales that analysts are already expecting. That may happen, but it'd be a stretch to really bet on it. If sales figures do come out and show 11-12 million in sales in that first month, then you might see a little mini-run up that sticks.

But really, I wouldn't count on the stock going much above where it is now until we hear the first set of sales numbers, and even then only if they're higher than have already been predicted.

I'm honestly not sure how I feel about EA buying Take 2. If we look at the film and television industries, there are just a few major players who own roughly 85% of the little guys.

With that, we get some great, good, and horrible movies and TV shows. Sometimes smaller studios maintain their independence, sometimes they don't.

I think in order for the gaming industry to mature, something similar has to happen. Look at how fast EA came to the defense of Mass Effect when the Fox lies were being told. I'd imagine that EA would do something similar when GTA comes under fire if they were owned by EA.

but then look at the sports division. 2K Sports consistently puts out better sports games than EA, and I am not so sure that 2K Sports would still exist if EA bought them.

So it's a lot to think about, and more to look at that some people's blind hate of EA.

@duckmouth:

Yup. If EA hadn't bid, the price wouldn't be where it is today.

@Zaxxon Q Blaque:

Ironically, that's exactly what I said when I read the article title.

@Caduceus: agreed, I don't think Take-Two is against the takeover per se, just that they wanted to wait until GTA 4 was out, and EA didn't. both positions make sense of course, it just strikes me that EA knew that the value would go higher after the release.

@Diesel_Power: huh? are you serious? you have to be kidding right? GTAIV was going to break sales records. EVERYONE knew that. Common sense then dictates that Take Two's stock price would go up as a result. Dude, that's the way it works. Look at Nintendo. Because of Wii and DS Nintendo's stock skyrocketed making them THE company to watch in gaming.

EA tried to buyout TT before the launch so they could reap the rewards of GTAIV. That's the story. anyone that didn't think GTAIV was going to sell like beer at the super bowl, was just being delusional.

This was as predictable as Sunset. It is why 2K would not sell out, and why investors like me where more than happy to tell EA to "Fuck off".

Take-Two doesn't even need EA, they are doing fine solo.

Of course EA is gonna play this down that is not even a question. They will fight to get what they want even if it's to devalue take two and then revalue it under the EA name.

Oh yeah, I'm a very happy Take 2 investor right now too :)

@Striderhayasa - Phillyyakk on PSN and Live.: - "EA tried to buyout TT before the launch so they could reap the rewards of GTAIV. That's the story."

That pretty much sums it up. I thought the same thing.

Good. I hope the stock goes even higher. Record sales tomorrow should help out that cause.

The thing with Take 2 is that it's stock is only worth anything when a GTA game ships. The rest of the time they teeter on the edge of destruction, law suits, and bankruptcy. GTA as a franchise and Rockstar as the devs is invaluable, but without them, Take 2 has proven itself completely inept.

Err ... you people understand that the stock price is that high BECAUSE of EA bid?

EA price-per-share offer was not that higher that trading floor price-per-share, that caused Take-Two to immediate rise to the offer price and continue to raise to stay slightly above the EA offer.

The moment EA removes the offer the price goes down, I am not going to offer tips but this is a good time to sell, I doubt Take-Two stock will get this high any time soon.

Flip your shares. Raging 'Bull' of TT will not bear it's horns any higher for awhile.

Drakron makes a good point - but we may yet see a jump as the GTAIV numbers absolutely asplode over the first week.

@ocalot: That's some of the most peculiar logic I've ever heard. And by peculiar I mean 'comically unsound and ridiculous'. EA should back out of this process because Take-Two have good IPs, and are therefore 'too good for EA?' I might be wrong, but I thought EA wanted to buy them because they were valuable and had quality IPs.

@cybereality: This deal isn't about Take-Two NEEDING EA, it's about Take-Two being a lucrative opportunity for EA.

And FYI: The offer was extended to May 16 - so those willing to ride this out, at least wait until that date nears if you want to get top dollar.

Take Two's stock is only temporarily trading higher because of fever pitch now that GTA IV is about to be released. Lets take a look at this again in about 3 weeks and see what the deal is.

And everyone should realise that EA will catpitalise on this situation. Let's assume GTA4 outsells predictions-- at this point, sound investors will sell, because as other posters have pointed out, 99% of the time Take-Two is a really bad investment. They remain a pretty poorly managed business on the verge of bankruptcy. And if I was an investor in this company and saw a situation now with a stock temporarily inflated by GTA4 sales (which are not a maintainable level of success for T2 as a business) and a takeover bid that EA could pull out of (thereby pretty much wrecking the stock price) I'd sell before this thing peaks and pocket some change.

The moral of the story is that EA is going to be able to buy a lot of T2 stock, because a lot of people will look to capitalise on this situation and sell. We could see another EA-Ubi situation, where EA own a considerable portion of the company.

Ugh. The amateur lawyering on Kotaku usually gets me steamed since I am one, but the amateur business analysis on here is a 1,000 times worse.

@badasscat: Thank you for the dose of reality. This is 100% spot on. The price was long ago taken into account.

Do you really think the biggest video game company on the planet was trying to purchase another company for hundreds of millions of dollars just to get some GTA money? There is more to this purchase than GTA, and more importantly, the reason these self-interested board members did not want to sell is so they could line their own pockets with lucrative buy outs from EA and waiting until they could change their contracts for more money.

The reason why EA's offer is lower than this is the poison pill Take Two adopted, which devalues the company. The actual reason why the share price is up is because of the takeover offer. Take Two's management have consistently shown terrible business skills and management decisions, and the shareholders should be praying for EA to take over.

I think the end result of it all will be thus:

Investors will see that even better than anticipated GTA sales AND a stock-inflating buyout offer (which combine to make a really favorable, and really teporary, stock situation that's unlikely to be repeated any time soon, if ever) only push the T2 stock just slightly higher than EA's offer, and will then accept the deal.

@Diesel_Power: When did I EVER say that T2 was stupid for denying EA? What's more, the majority of posters screamed for T2 to deny EA's offer.

A Blind man could see that GTA IV's immense hype and media coverage would bring about huge sales and a rise in stock pricing.

I understand if you're a little late to the party and frustrated because T2 is out of EA's reach now, but don't accuse me of hopping on the bandwagon or being ignorant of how the US economy works.

The end of my prior post should have said... where EA own a significant portion if the company even if they walk out of the buyout proceedings.

It's a real burden, being right so often. This is EXACTLY what I said would happen more than a month ago.

@Alexander-The-Great: I don't know if I agree that T2 has suddenly been put out of EA's reach. Imagine if EA went public the morning of GTA's launch and said the buyout offer has been rescinded. Great GTA sales aside, the stock price would TUMBLE, because Take-Two stock value at this moment is based much more on the buyout than on GTA sales.

if I were EA, I'd be tired of his game already. I'd publicly announce that I'm withdrawing the buyout offer, and then use holding companies to buy huge blocks of T2 stock as it tumbles below $26 per share, and then consolidate those blocks into a minority ownership stake and give the remaining shareholders little choice but to agree to a new, less favorable deal.

It was at EA's offer last week, no shock TT's price has continue to rise with the press of THE AAA title of 2008.

EA is looking more foolish to this by the moment

@Catalyst: So EA offers to buy TT and their stock goes up because of the offer...GTAIV has expected sales of 9million units (over some ridiculously short period) to break records and this has no effect what-so-ever on TT's stock price (however temporary the increase may be) and the justification of turning down the original offer?

I was of the impression that if TT sold the company to EA before GTAIV dropped they would have to be total fools. Of course this has a lot more to do than just GTA but one would have to be a total idiot to think EA or any other game company on earth would scoff at the chance to own that IP right about now. So...yeah...of course, this is more than just GTAIV but does this not allow TT to look at EA and say "we told you your bid ain't high enough son, give us more monies or step off"

Oh...and I would assume that the profits of GTAIV would be all gravy at this point as well? I'm asking...

The share price will collapse after the EA offer is withdrawn ... or at the next quarterly meeting. As I keep saying, stocks are forward looking. This price is based on the coming earnings of GTA ... once the earnings are actually announced or in process, it'll fall -- because, what's next?

The current value of the stock as of about thirty minutes ago was $26.35 per share, down about $.45 per share from the high earlier today. So, all told the hype around GTA4 has contributed a bit more than a quarter per share to Take-Two's value. Hats off to you geniuses who saw this coming. Remember me when you count your millions.

To put this into perspective, before EA made the offer Take-Two stock was trading at somewhere between $14-$15 per share. Now, is Take-Two wise for not accepting the deal? I don't know, but quite a bit of their value is based on the idea this deal happens.

Yea, I figured this was going to be the result. Yet, I'm not going to boast about being right because even a moron could've seen this coming.

Or a child, for that matter.

@Alexander-The-Great: Everyone saw that coming. It's why EA wanted to buy Take Two when it did so they wouldn't have to wait for the 3-4 months that it will take for T2's stock to drop down the offer level or the 6-8 months for it to drop further, or GIVEN HOW T2's STOCK HAS PERFORMED SINCE IT WAS FIRST OFFERED (I used to own some and they were historically losses), wait the 9-12 months it will take for T2's stock to drop back to being below 20 a share.

Look at the math. EA's offer inflated the value of the T2's stock by something like 30% while the release of GTA has only added somthing like 10%.

That is, the price is what it is because everyone thought they would make a profit if they bought T2 stocks before it accepted EA's offer, thus driving up the price big time before GTA IV came out.

If EA never made the offer it stands to reason that Take Two's stock would at this moment, be around the low 20s -at the very best.

And it's also important to note that most video game companies lack the staff to turn a profit between most games - meaning that T2's shares will drop to about where they were.

@wild homes: I defer to people who are paid to know this for a living, but as memory serves me, no video game (including any GTA) has boosted share prices for as much as it did for as long as it did the EA offer boosted T2's stock.

@Diesel_Power: It's still stupid. Most of the articles point out that it was possible that the release of GTAIV could drive the share prices above the offer price, but they all pointed out that that would be a very brief situation.

Also it's worth noting that while the share price it's trading at today (and for the next month or so) may be higher, the daily volume is nowhere near the amount of equity in the company EA was looking to get. Today's volume is a bit more than twice the average volume at 4 million shares traded out of 76.8 million outstanding.

@dead_red_eyes: Except that to EA, the income from GTA IV (of which they would only see a portion, anyway) is singificantly diminished by the cost of buying T2. The point isn't getting GTAIV income its getting GTAV-XXXX and aquiring the biggest competitor to one of your cash cows (Madden).