If they higher the limit on our ISP, sure. But right now, it's a bit tight. 20GB Down and 10GB up is way too little.

Imagine, BluRay games downloaded now...

Right now, a GameStop exec is crying.

I hope by that time, Microsoft will have found a better way to re-link your downloaded content with your shiny new Xbox 36000 -- which just came back from the repair center for the 5th time in 8 months.

It's sort of silly that Sony would make this sort of declaration when their major competitor Microsoft is making huge strides in the digital distribution area while Sony is stagnating and waiting for Home to be implemented.

Ugh, I'll take my boxed retail copy, kthx.

stuff like this freaks me out , i still live ina country where my internet is a crap ass 256k d 128k u and limited to 7GB combined per month T_T

*runs away and starts crying his eyes out*

Meh, I've downloading pc games for 10 years...mmmm...Quake 3 Arena on dial-up (God it took so long).

That means by 2018 90% of people will doing what i've doing for the past 20 years.

Wow just Wow

While I agree with it, I believe the number is artificially inflated. Because, right now, 75% of all my games are downloaded. But that's because of the massive number of free games and cheap out there as DLC.
Thanks to Gametap, I've got Thief:DS, Hitman 1 and 2, Darkstalkers, etc... All commercial games, for free after a time.
I've also downloaded every game by Yahtzee, the Passage games, etc...indie freware.
And then there's all those $5 impulse buys from PsN and Xbox live.
True, 75%+ of all my games are downloaded, but I still purchase all my big-name games by Blu-Ray/DvD.

Sony themselves already are predicting Blu-ray disc as a failure ... by 2018?

Interesting article. I thought his comments about the polemic that would occur with the ratings system online was eye catching.

As for the next five years. Gamestop becomes the next Direct2Drive company. Can't wait to see how the the used games market shapes out.

I bashed MS on this issue so now it's Sony's turn.

Dear Sony,

Who do you think is gonna pay for the bandwidth and network infrastructure in transfering gigs worth of info?

If you could kindly pay for a fiber optic line with no capped downloads connecting to every switch in the world then this will happen.

Thanks

I think that Sony need to stopboasting about they're new store, that won't last until the end of this year.

Why can't they just build a store thats built to last. Those squares will fill up soonish.

I dread the idea of having to download a game as opposed to having tangible media in hand. The beauty of having that piece of data in tangible form is that if we don't like it, we can sell it or trade it in for something desirable. It'll be a dark day when tangible media ceases to exist.

5 years? 10 years? I'm already downloading 90% of my games thanks to STeam

God no. I prefer to have a physical copies of my games.

Also notable is the fact that 2018 is when the next Gran Turismo will be released. FInally a release date has been set!

@Zeliard: I would argue that Sony has made bigger strides as far as games go alongside the PC market. After all, Live doesn't offer anything as meaty as some of the bigger games on PSN. Microsoft has some major control issues.

2018 seems like a more realistic figure than say 2012/2013. Especially with net neutrality still an issue, most internet connections still being relatively slow, and space still being an issue.

Would anyone really want to sit through downloading MGS4 in total right now? I think not.

@retronaut:

Sorry but I think that subject is already closed, I mean look at Toshiba that wants to produce their Blu-Ray player now.

Anyways, those stats are weird. No range, nothing. It might be only PC games who knows!

I'm in favor of digital transfer, but there is still a lot of piracy issues... and if piracy is still here, it will hurt the gaming industry.

At last someone being realistic about the future of downloadable games.

Broadband penetration is nowhere near high enough to support downloadable games for many gamers.

If game companies continue to push it and forget the local game store they will instantly lose a huge portion of the market

I predict earlier.

The only thing mentioned was that 90% of sales would be done online. This doesn't rule out the fact that games in 10 years will be insanely huge on space and as space requirements go up internet speeds thus far have been slow to follow. I believe 100% that we will still have physical media for games and very likely movies. Music on the other hand is on the way out. As we increase visual fidelity everyone needs to remember that space requirements will go up.

As far as "the next 5 years", Mark, I think you'll see that on the PC. Steam is already hugely popular and is only getting bigger as time goes by. Their ultimate goal is to host every game out there. :P And anyone who's been to a Gamestop or whatever recently knows that their stock of PC games isn't exactly big.

Digital distribution is nice. Yeah, you don't get the packaging that 9/10 you end up throwing away and the manual you never read, but you bypass retail pricing (this will affect consoles in particular). You don't even have to go to a store. Through Steam, you can also download and install a pre-ordered game and have it running at 12:01 AM on release date. Patching your game up is also done automatically through Steam, which is very nice.

There are countless advantages to digital distribution, mainly accessibility and speed (your typical technological upgrade), so it will undoubtedly become the dominant method of getting games as well as movies.

That could work but first...

-Faster Bandwidth
-No more Upload / Download limit

They can't put MGS4 which barely fits on a Blu-Ray ( BD = 50GB O_O ). The system must be by torrents, and people need to keep their games uploaded ...

I don't know. But the 90% of my games are already digital downloads. Games like Orange Box, Darwinia, etc.. MMO's like DDO and Vanguard, etc.

I could download a trial in 2/3 hours, and If the game is anything good, buy the key with my credit card, enter it on the control panel of the game, and BANG, play the full game. Thats how I played Vanguard and DDO.

I have found less cumbersome a cd-key, than disc. But maybe other people will feel different. Mainwhile, I will vote with my credit card for digital downloads :D

Sony may turn out to be right on percentages, but if they are, it'll be a percentage of a shrunken market.

Are Sony and MS learning nothing at all from Nintendo's success this time around? Both Sony and MS are doing all they can to push technology forward and drag consumers with them. Nintendo is doing just the opposite; giving consumers what they say they want. Nobody's rushing into downloads; there's just not a huge demand for it. What there is a huge demand for, apparently, are simple games the family can play on simple devices. Little kids and little old ladies are not going to be able to figure out how to download a game, but they can figure out how to buy one at Wal-Mart.

Maybe 90% of games sold on the PlayStation 5 or whatever will be downloaded... but that won't mean much when the PS5 has a 4% market share and the Wii3 has a 90% market share with all of its games still available at retail.

10 years seems more likely than 5 to me. Think about music, for example. Downloadable options have been available for several years now, and it's still not nearly 90%. Despite that in 5 years several people could be downloading most of their games, I don't see 90% of the population doing so.

@Zeliard: I definitely agree that it's much more likely to see PC do that in the next 5 games, but I don't see that happening with consoles.

This may be accurate, but I prefer hard copies over downloads. Hell, I won't buy wireless controllers. Maybe I'm just old (or not), but I like owning things that I've come to rely on. Now how do I work this here DVD thing?

I would tend to agree with this idea. If I can, I buy all my games on Steam. I've bought C&C 3 on EA Link but realized that was a mistake. Luckily I could run C&C without using EA Link.

I think that digital download software like Steam is getting bigger. Especially for college students who have really fast broadband (I downloaded Assassin's Creed on Steam within an hour and a half).

I think the problem will be getting all the publishers on board. I hope that the only digital platform will be Steam because it's the best. Unfortunately, I don't think Steam will get EA anytime soon because EA is so full of themselves.

Once Steam does win over all the major publishers, I will be buying all my games online. Especially if I can preload them, because that means I save travel time and wait time to install.

@bcdccm: I agree with you as well. I think that brick and mortar stores should still carry everything, because with console games especially we mostly buy it from the store (unless you use Gamefly).

But will we have broadband on the moon in 2018? We will be living on the moon by then, right?

BWahahahaahahaha! Gamestop is screwed! Viva la revolution! >:D

Keep in mind that piracy will be stomped down, and consumers who are "cheap" will debate whether a certain console is feasible in the near future.

@HaydenTenno:

Agreed. I like having some physical item in my posession. Unless there's also a simplified plan for reselling materials once I no longer wish to use them.

As 360 (and to a lesser extent PSN and Wii) suggest...once you buy that content it's there. The only way to "sell" it is to sell the entire system along with it.

its very possible...
just remember the inet 5years ago...
:)

and sony makes steps to that direction in realistic terms not like microsoft thet claims bluray is gonna die soon because of digital downloads :|
The usa infrastructure can't handle all this bandwith now,not to mention worldwide.
But in 20 years is a safe prediction

it'd be nice if that turned out to be true... It would be a fantastic way to cannibalize the used game trade and put more money in publisher's pockets...

I see a few key problems with this theory...

1- gamestop and other retailers aren't going to like this, and they're going to fight to make sure it doesn't happen

2- ISP's like qwest and comcast aren't going to like the amount of bandwidth this is going to consume, which means they'll likely start charging by the megabyte to curb the trend.

3- it's expensive to host the content... though likely not nearly as expensive as the cut retailers currently get.

4- the cost of HDD space for storing the content could pose a serious issue

5- and last but certainly not least, increasing game data size. they've been growing exponentially for decades... if this trend continues, it's going to complicate 1-4 incredibly... If games keep growing, all the issues associated with transitioning to DD compound...

@Zeliard: Really? cause last time I checked you could download warhawk off the PSN, along with upcoming GT5P and Socom. I havn't seen any xbox360 games for download on XBL. @chos3n: I think 95% of PC games are downloaded these days anyways (I totally pulled that number out of my ass). I mean if it isnt on steam I dont buy it. Plus I think steam does a good job of keeping everyone legit (anti-piracy). I mean I am not naive, I know there is a way to get around every form of copy protection but Since things are validated through steam its a bit different than just downloading a crack...atleast to play online.

I don't know if this will be the case. Honestly speaking, with all the words being given about the net becoming crowded and slowing down, I think it would be a nightmare. A significant change would have to happen with the way the structures are built.

Take for example many MMO's out there that can barely handle a few million people connecting at one sending and receiving relatively small packets.

When the gaming industry is having a release day for any big named game, it will take people over a day to download the entire game. Especially if it's a relatively large one.

This might also create a bad habit in the ways of console gaming. For small games it is fine. Anything over 4gb I would say is pushing that limit. I would prefer that my games are stored on a form of physical media rather than downloaded.

If games are roughly the increasing size they already are by 2018, we will need to purchase larger built in HDD's for those consoles, meaning the price not only in the processing and graphical technologies would increase - but the required prices for storage would also increase. This would result in consoles costing far more than what the PS3 release did, and I do not believe that will be very acceptable no matter what the year is.. So smaller, XBLA or PSN games are understood.. Anything that size to higher than a 5gb range I feel would still primarily be released in the way of physical media. Be it a smaller sized media like a return to a cartidge style system or sticking to discs.

@Black-Dog-Howls: If you're referring to Microsoft's insanely idiotic policies on user-created content on XBL, I completely agree with you. Sony is way ahead of the curve on that one.

Though I'm not entirely sure what you mean by "some of the bigger games on PSN". There are quite a few excellent games on XBLA (such as the recently release Ikaruga), and both XBL and PSN have a similar selection of full, downloadable, quality games.

If we switch to downloading games than the # of games I buy will drop considerably. I like having a nice collection of games and there won't be much of a point to buying games I don't have the time to play yet if this happens.

Guys. Guys. Don't we need to hear what Michael Pachter says about this?

@badasscat: Why does everyone assume Nintendo is a competitor to MS and Sony. MS and SOny are conglomerates that do more than just push out videogames. One is a major producer of consumer electronics, and the other is the player in the computer and software market. Both are trying to establish themselves in the next area of home entertainment, namely through digital distribution of entertainment media, whether it be games movies or music. NIntendo just puts out games. Thats all they do and they do it well. They are interested in only doing that. They arent interested in multimedia devices, thats why they lag behind in terms on DLC and HDD's and what not. But MS and Sony dont care. They can afford to lose some money in the gaming battle because it is the entertainment war theyre looking to conquer. There is room for both views and to be honest its silly to even match these companies head to head. They have different agendas and they are going for differing dempgraphics.

I already download almost 100% of my games :P

I don't pay for all of them.. but that's another story..

Ironically, downloadable games on systems like Steam and WiiWare are harder to pirate and in most cases if you're able to do it, the pirate version lacks a lot of features..

@Derigor:
I'll give you SoCom, but stuff like GT5P and Warhawk doesn't fly, or you could basically just bring up Shivering Isles, the $30 downloadable Oblivion expansion (which you could also buy retail).

Microsoft is still clearly ahead when it comes to digital distribution. Look at XBL's huge selection of movies and television shows, as well as the XBLA games.

I'm sure he pulled those stats out his...bum, but you have to wonder whether the rest of Sony is in the same boat. I mean, he's says "games" but this could also mean movies, music, etc. So where does Blu-Ray fit in that equation in 10 years? Does this mean PS4 will be discless? Then again, judging by the events brought up by Phil Harrison and the others in SCEE territory, they don't always toe the corporate line.

I hope this doesn't come true, I like to have physical copies of games

No.

Digital copies are crap.

Give me my boxed products please.

Why do people always fight technology and progression? DD is coming to consoles whether you guys like it or not. It's too convenient and it saves the big companies like Sony and Microsoft too much money.

To all the people who don't think current broadband is good enough: Where was the internet in 1998? A 10mb cable line was unheard of back then, and now it's standard (and even slow in parts of europe)

Look at the music industry if you need a blueprint as to how this transition will go. Itunes is now the largest music retailer in the united states. Companies like Gamestop will have to evolve or become the new Walmart of the gaming world (ie. not first place)

When's the last time you've seen a CD player?

Here's a question for Sony.

If 90% of games are downloaded who will sell your systems? Retailers make money off games not systems. Why would they sell the systems if there is no chance for profit?

Im all for downloaded games as much as the next guy but issues with DRM and logistics just keep it from being a major option at the moment. Of course in 10 years that could change but I doubt it.